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| Goals. |
Tell me if you’ve heard this before, but I’m tinkering with the format on this weekly reviews. Also, sorry it’s late! Note that I did not say “these weekly reviews,” because I am an architect who forever designs buildings, but who has never stood one up, amen. With that, let’s unroll the next set of glorious plans…
First up, here are all the results for Major League Soccer’s eighth full week, with links to The Mothership’s game summaries embedded in each final score and all the games on which I spent some time in bold. Because they’re the most important ones. Mostly. Oh, and I hung an asterisk on all the games that didn't go as I'd (and I'm guessing most people) expected.
FC Dallas 2-1 Houston Dynamo (ESPN+ didn’t have this one; also, fuck those guys)
Philadelphia Union 1-1 Club du Foot Montreal
Minnesota United FC 3-0 Chicago Fire FC
DC United 3-2 New England Revolution*
Austin FC 3-0 Vancouver Whitecaps
Sporting Kansas City 0-0 Columbus Crew SC
Colorado Rapids 0-0 Charlotte FC
Portland Timbers 0-0 Real Salt Lake (I have extended, embittered notes on this one)
San Jose Earthquakes 4-3 Seattle Sounders*
Los Angeles Galaxy 1-0 Nashville SC
Inter Miami CF 2-1 Atlanta United FC
Orlando City SC 0-3 Red Bull New York
FC Cincinnati 1-2 Los Angeles FC (I have extended, oddly contented notes on this one)
New York City FC 5-4 Toronto FC*
Again, the fact I didn’t look closer at a given game can mean any number of things - e.g., I didn’t have access to the content (see above), I expected the result (see below), I ran out of time (a general statement), the teams involved bore the buggery bejesus outta me (ibid.), etc. To give some examples from the above: Dallas beating Houston continues to boost a signal that they may do more than step to the edge of the mix in 2022 (and that they punch pretty hard at home), or even that that step may include shoving a struggling Rapids team out of it (and can a rate/shit-on player like Gyasi Zardes avert that fate?). To dig just one hand shovel’s length deeper (and both thoughts come from Matt Doyle’s Week 8 review*), what does the fact (or the argument) that Dallas slept-walked through 70 minutes of that game do to that calculus? Or should fans/pundits/punters take it as a given that either or both Montreal or Nashville will fire up the standings now that both are poised to return home after long road-trips?
[* Ed. - To be clear, I really value Matt Doyle’s work and insights, but, golly, there are times it feels like he gets paid by the narrative.]
That’s not an exhaustive list by any means - e.g., I’d call Miami…let’s go with 8 points from their next six games (@ NE, @ CLT, v DC, @ PHI, v RBNY, v POR, aka, tough) from being worth keeping an eye on and/or graduating to Purgatory. Finally, let the record show that I regret not having time to see how Austin looked (even as I assumed they’d beat Vancouver going in), but that I have zero regrets over taking a pass at SKC v Columbus and would give fewer fucks about it were it mathematically possible.
First up, here are all the results for Major League Soccer’s eighth full week, with links to The Mothership’s game summaries embedded in each final score and all the games on which I spent some time in bold. Because they’re the most important ones. Mostly. Oh, and I hung an asterisk on all the games that didn't go as I'd (and I'm guessing most people) expected.
FC Dallas 2-1 Houston Dynamo (ESPN+ didn’t have this one; also, fuck those guys)
Philadelphia Union 1-1 Club du Foot Montreal
Minnesota United FC 3-0 Chicago Fire FC
DC United 3-2 New England Revolution*
Austin FC 3-0 Vancouver Whitecaps
Sporting Kansas City 0-0 Columbus Crew SC
Colorado Rapids 0-0 Charlotte FC
Portland Timbers 0-0 Real Salt Lake (I have extended, embittered notes on this one)
San Jose Earthquakes 4-3 Seattle Sounders*
Los Angeles Galaxy 1-0 Nashville SC
Inter Miami CF 2-1 Atlanta United FC
Orlando City SC 0-3 Red Bull New York
FC Cincinnati 1-2 Los Angeles FC (I have extended, oddly contented notes on this one)
New York City FC 5-4 Toronto FC*
Again, the fact I didn’t look closer at a given game can mean any number of things - e.g., I didn’t have access to the content (see above), I expected the result (see below), I ran out of time (a general statement), the teams involved bore the buggery bejesus outta me (ibid.), etc. To give some examples from the above: Dallas beating Houston continues to boost a signal that they may do more than step to the edge of the mix in 2022 (and that they punch pretty hard at home), or even that that step may include shoving a struggling Rapids team out of it (and can a rate/shit-on player like Gyasi Zardes avert that fate?). To dig just one hand shovel’s length deeper (and both thoughts come from Matt Doyle’s Week 8 review*), what does the fact (or the argument) that Dallas slept-walked through 70 minutes of that game do to that calculus? Or should fans/pundits/punters take it as a given that either or both Montreal or Nashville will fire up the standings now that both are poised to return home after long road-trips?
[* Ed. - To be clear, I really value Matt Doyle’s work and insights, but, golly, there are times it feels like he gets paid by the narrative.]
That’s not an exhaustive list by any means - e.g., I’d call Miami…let’s go with 8 points from their next six games (@ NE, @ CLT, v DC, @ PHI, v RBNY, v POR, aka, tough) from being worth keeping an eye on and/or graduating to Purgatory. Finally, let the record show that I regret not having time to see how Austin looked (even as I assumed they’d beat Vancouver going in), but that I have zero regrets over taking a pass at SKC v Columbus and would give fewer fucks about it were it mathematically possible.
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| See the future! |
That takes care of the big-picture summary. Now, let’s pick through the entrails of the games I took a deeper look at to see what the future holds. To take care of the legal stuff, I did not sit through the full 90 minutes of any of these games, but instead watched segments either around or in between the goals (e.g., I watched the full, disturbingly brief time when NYCFC flipped the game on Toronto), or when one team or another enjoyed a period of dominance per the possession graph in the box score. I have no intent to summarize the game or, gods forfend, “break it down.” I mostly plan on offering a broad impression of the game, talk about whether it punctured or inflated some narrative, read or imagined, and maybe flag a detail or two to back that up. Now, let’s get fingers in those entrails!
Minnesota United FC 3-0 Chicago Fire FC
Based on the MLS in 15, this is the kind of game that makes me paranoid about the xG stat. Minnesota scored three and both teams created bona fide chances…so what’s with the 0.9/1.0 xG numbers? Then again, Doyle’s column took a pretty big shit on Chicago’s chance creation (“even with Xherdan Shaqiri back in the lineup they produced damn near nothing going forward”; fwiw, I think Shaqiri looked fine). Bebe Reynoso got all the plaudits, but Robin Lod has looked damn sharp and, together, they look pretty damn dangerous (they had what looked like an early goal called back for offside; thing o’ beauty). I’m convinced on Minnesota again, hence their ascendance into Heaven. As for Chicago, I banish thee for not scoring, Amen.
DC United 3-2 New England Revolution
Doyle hit the “new coach buzz” narrative in both this game and the one below - though in this case he argued that Hernan Losada set up the system Chad Ashton successfully borrowed (see quote on that whole thing below, btw). I’d tread lightly with this result. Per the box score, the Revs won every stat except blocked shots, saves, clearances and fouls. Moreover, my spot check found at least a half dozen quality looks by New England - including two between DC’s first goal and their second (which, for the record, relied on clumsy coverage by Omar Gonzalez; also, Brad Knighton (and others) could have done better on DC ‘s third). To address that parenthetical, yeah, New England players could have done better. But they didn’t. I’m not questioning that the Revs are tripping over their muskets, but this team still have ample fire power…and, damn, does Carles Gil look great. And Taxi(archis) Fountas matched up. Looks like DC landed a guy. Also, DC’s really high energy. They ran themselves stupid…related thereto, the Revs also had two great chances late. Again, grain of salt on this one.
San Jose Earthquakes 4-3 Seattle Sounders
First, I’ve waited for as long as Stefan Frei has played in MLS to see him fuck up like this. Delicious. That hurt Seattle, obviously, but not as definitively as Jimmy Medranda last-minute shove on Francisco Calvo (who Doyle hates, btw). Still, it’s more than a little stunning to see the Sounders give up three. I’d call the third most worrisome - Joao Paolo (of all players) got his pocket picked - but Frei doesn’t fuck up like that much and I’m confident Medranda will think twice before pulling that stupid shit again. Doyle also dropped this one into the “new coach buzz” narrative (only this time, he noted the interim guy was free (free!) of Almeyda’s dogmatic madness), but San Jose could easily have scored fewer and Seatle more; the ‘Quakes popped boners all over (what?) and I don’t know how that fucking bonehead, Ted Unkel, watched the video on Nathan’s early tackle flashing red tackle and stick with the yellow card and a penalty. Last thought, with a CLL road game coming to call a couple days later, why the hell did the Sounders start it’s A-Team?
Orlando City SC 0-3 Red Bull New York
It’s hard to over-emphasize Orlando’s thoroughgoing ineffectuality in this game: nothing I saw in my spot check raised so much as a murmur of dissent to the 0.1 xG that shows in the box score. Meanwhile, the Red Bulls did their thing - e.g., if you haven’t done something decisive with the ball by the time you count to two, they have the ball - but what stood out was how badly Orlando managed it; the first goal is classic Red Bull, but Orlando’s spacing and general organization on Red Bull’s second bears noting. Their passing map looks like a goddamn constellation, but, who gives a shit when you win 3-0 at a (frenzied) walk? They’re quietly keeping pace in the East, though it bears noting that they’re doing it exclusively on the road. Still. Four wins away, zero wins at home. Go figure.
New York City FC 5-4 Toronto FC
First, no, I didn’t believe this score either; going the other way, Toronto appears to have found a find in Jesus Jimenez. The man can finish. I didn’t bother looking at Toronto’s two late goals - though it bears noting that NYC has allowed 5/18ths of the goals they allowed in 2021, and just 7/34th into the 2022 season (this has been your pointless fraction moment) - because, for the second week straight, NYCFC could have scored 10 or more; the 4.3 xG ain’t even a white lie. Alex Bono stood on his head because he had to. No team in MLS looks clicks even half as loud as NYCFC right now. They needed all five goals this past weekend, a pace well south of replicability…but what if that says something as much about Toronto as it does about them? Say, what is FC Cincinnati doing next weekend?
And that’s it for the summaries. Say, this is shorter. Now, based on all of that, plus the rest of the results, I’ve re-sorted every team in MLS into the same three-tiered hierarchy - e.g., Heaven, Purgatory or Hell. That said, the trends among the mid-table teams held up well enough that I could cut Purgatory’s sub-tiers to just two categories (in keeping with the theme): Someone Paid Indulgences! and Your Living Loved Ones Have Forsaken You. At any rate, all that is laid out below. I’ve added notes between tiers where they seem worthwhile…which is to say, if I don’t have a separate entry for your team, or a team you’re curious about, I see their present fate as self-evident. Kinda like predestination…
Heaven (aka, Comfortably Project to Playoffs)
Philadelphia Union, Los Angeles FC, Seattle Sounders, Orlando City SC, New York City FC, Los Angeles Galaxy, Nashville SC, Minnesota United FC
Nashville SC
Without digging into the details, they need to show some signs of home-field life by July 4th to stay up here.
Orlando City SC
That attack needs to sharpen - and soon. The next four (v CLT, @ MTL, @ TFC, @ ATX) look like tight spaces for a turn-around.
Los Angeles FC
Only a handful of teams have kept touch with LAFC on goals for - NYCFC, obviously, but also Toronto, Montreal and, of all teams, San Jose - while they rest lag 8-10 goals behind. Austin actually has one more goal - 20 to LAFC’s 19 - but they owe literally half their goals to early season home blowouts over Miami and Cincy. Every other team is scoring consistently, but LAF’s on top.
Seattle Sounders
They got a damn good result in the CCL last night, but I can only keep them up here so long on reputation.
Philadelphia Union
Just…note their wins: 1-2 @ MTL, 2-0 v SJ; 2-0 @ NYC, 2-0 v CLT, 1-0 v CLB. Only two of those strike me as impressive, and both had the CCL asterisk (then again, Philly was involved too.)
Purgatory (Pending, aka, Need to Work Out Some Sins…Fail to)
First, to separate the rising from the falling. Again, notes where they seem worthwhile…
Someone Paid Indulgences!
Club du Foot Montreal, Toronto FC, FC Dallas, Austin FC, Red Bull New York, Charlotte FC
With the exception of Charlotte, I’d call all these teams just one quality, near-term result away from ascending into Heaven.
Your Living Loved Ones Have Forsaken You
Houston Dynamo, Atlanta United FC, Columbus Crew SC, Real Salt Lake, Portland Timbers, New England Revolution, Colorado Rapids
A lot of this is just stagnation, though a couple teams do have me worried - e.g., Columbus and RSL. The Revs are alone in needing to get their defense online (can’t believe they’ve given up 16 already), but it’s mainly scoring issues that plagues Portland and the Rapids. There is one special case, though…
Houston Dynamo
They are just above the playoff line, and the three wins that got them there - v VAN, @ MIA and v SJ - don’t exactly instill fear. They’ve got three of the next four at home, not one of them a gimme - e.g., v ATX, v NSH, v SEA - so holding serve would be impressive. Going the other way, they have to start winning games like that to go anywhere good.
Hell (aka, Don’t; Teams Who Help Other Teams Reach the Playoffs by Repeated Failing)
DC United, FC Cincinnati, Inter Miami CF, Vancouver Whitecaps FC, San Jose Earthquakes, Chicago Fire FC, Sporting Kansas City
At least three of these teams - DC, Cincy and Miami - don’t need much to break outta Hell. I don’t like Cincy’s odds (then again, the note on Houston seems relevant here), and Miami’s don’t look much better. I’d call DC the team with the best shot at leaving the pits of fire and ice behind. Speaking of…
DC United
“[Interim head coach Alex] Covelo’s got to overwrite the entire defensive scheme the Quakes have been running for years, but in D.C., even though the results this year and down the stretch last year were bad, a lot of Losada’s soccer ideas are good. The underlying numbers really liked what he put into place in 2021 (I’m in several group chats/Slack groups with quants, and they all lost their collective s&^# when Losada was fired), and Ashton was smart enough to keep the baseline principles like the formation (3-4-2-1), the line of confrontation (high!) and the aggressiveness of the fullbacks.”
That’s from Doyle’s column. For the curious.
One last thing: I get that a lot of teams are stagnating, but not many of them have made me look smart every week quite like SKC. Till further notice, you won’t go far wrong betting against them.
Minnesota United FC 3-0 Chicago Fire FC
Based on the MLS in 15, this is the kind of game that makes me paranoid about the xG stat. Minnesota scored three and both teams created bona fide chances…so what’s with the 0.9/1.0 xG numbers? Then again, Doyle’s column took a pretty big shit on Chicago’s chance creation (“even with Xherdan Shaqiri back in the lineup they produced damn near nothing going forward”; fwiw, I think Shaqiri looked fine). Bebe Reynoso got all the plaudits, but Robin Lod has looked damn sharp and, together, they look pretty damn dangerous (they had what looked like an early goal called back for offside; thing o’ beauty). I’m convinced on Minnesota again, hence their ascendance into Heaven. As for Chicago, I banish thee for not scoring, Amen.
DC United 3-2 New England Revolution
Doyle hit the “new coach buzz” narrative in both this game and the one below - though in this case he argued that Hernan Losada set up the system Chad Ashton successfully borrowed (see quote on that whole thing below, btw). I’d tread lightly with this result. Per the box score, the Revs won every stat except blocked shots, saves, clearances and fouls. Moreover, my spot check found at least a half dozen quality looks by New England - including two between DC’s first goal and their second (which, for the record, relied on clumsy coverage by Omar Gonzalez; also, Brad Knighton (and others) could have done better on DC ‘s third). To address that parenthetical, yeah, New England players could have done better. But they didn’t. I’m not questioning that the Revs are tripping over their muskets, but this team still have ample fire power…and, damn, does Carles Gil look great. And Taxi(archis) Fountas matched up. Looks like DC landed a guy. Also, DC’s really high energy. They ran themselves stupid…related thereto, the Revs also had two great chances late. Again, grain of salt on this one.
San Jose Earthquakes 4-3 Seattle Sounders
First, I’ve waited for as long as Stefan Frei has played in MLS to see him fuck up like this. Delicious. That hurt Seattle, obviously, but not as definitively as Jimmy Medranda last-minute shove on Francisco Calvo (who Doyle hates, btw). Still, it’s more than a little stunning to see the Sounders give up three. I’d call the third most worrisome - Joao Paolo (of all players) got his pocket picked - but Frei doesn’t fuck up like that much and I’m confident Medranda will think twice before pulling that stupid shit again. Doyle also dropped this one into the “new coach buzz” narrative (only this time, he noted the interim guy was free (free!) of Almeyda’s dogmatic madness), but San Jose could easily have scored fewer and Seatle more; the ‘Quakes popped boners all over (what?) and I don’t know how that fucking bonehead, Ted Unkel, watched the video on Nathan’s early tackle flashing red tackle and stick with the yellow card and a penalty. Last thought, with a CLL road game coming to call a couple days later, why the hell did the Sounders start it’s A-Team?
Orlando City SC 0-3 Red Bull New York
It’s hard to over-emphasize Orlando’s thoroughgoing ineffectuality in this game: nothing I saw in my spot check raised so much as a murmur of dissent to the 0.1 xG that shows in the box score. Meanwhile, the Red Bulls did their thing - e.g., if you haven’t done something decisive with the ball by the time you count to two, they have the ball - but what stood out was how badly Orlando managed it; the first goal is classic Red Bull, but Orlando’s spacing and general organization on Red Bull’s second bears noting. Their passing map looks like a goddamn constellation, but, who gives a shit when you win 3-0 at a (frenzied) walk? They’re quietly keeping pace in the East, though it bears noting that they’re doing it exclusively on the road. Still. Four wins away, zero wins at home. Go figure.
New York City FC 5-4 Toronto FC
First, no, I didn’t believe this score either; going the other way, Toronto appears to have found a find in Jesus Jimenez. The man can finish. I didn’t bother looking at Toronto’s two late goals - though it bears noting that NYC has allowed 5/18ths of the goals they allowed in 2021, and just 7/34th into the 2022 season (this has been your pointless fraction moment) - because, for the second week straight, NYCFC could have scored 10 or more; the 4.3 xG ain’t even a white lie. Alex Bono stood on his head because he had to. No team in MLS looks clicks even half as loud as NYCFC right now. They needed all five goals this past weekend, a pace well south of replicability…but what if that says something as much about Toronto as it does about them? Say, what is FC Cincinnati doing next weekend?
And that’s it for the summaries. Say, this is shorter. Now, based on all of that, plus the rest of the results, I’ve re-sorted every team in MLS into the same three-tiered hierarchy - e.g., Heaven, Purgatory or Hell. That said, the trends among the mid-table teams held up well enough that I could cut Purgatory’s sub-tiers to just two categories (in keeping with the theme): Someone Paid Indulgences! and Your Living Loved Ones Have Forsaken You. At any rate, all that is laid out below. I’ve added notes between tiers where they seem worthwhile…which is to say, if I don’t have a separate entry for your team, or a team you’re curious about, I see their present fate as self-evident. Kinda like predestination…
Heaven (aka, Comfortably Project to Playoffs)
Philadelphia Union, Los Angeles FC, Seattle Sounders, Orlando City SC, New York City FC, Los Angeles Galaxy, Nashville SC, Minnesota United FC
Nashville SC
Without digging into the details, they need to show some signs of home-field life by July 4th to stay up here.
Orlando City SC
That attack needs to sharpen - and soon. The next four (v CLT, @ MTL, @ TFC, @ ATX) look like tight spaces for a turn-around.
Los Angeles FC
Only a handful of teams have kept touch with LAFC on goals for - NYCFC, obviously, but also Toronto, Montreal and, of all teams, San Jose - while they rest lag 8-10 goals behind. Austin actually has one more goal - 20 to LAFC’s 19 - but they owe literally half their goals to early season home blowouts over Miami and Cincy. Every other team is scoring consistently, but LAF’s on top.
Seattle Sounders
They got a damn good result in the CCL last night, but I can only keep them up here so long on reputation.
Philadelphia Union
Just…note their wins: 1-2 @ MTL, 2-0 v SJ; 2-0 @ NYC, 2-0 v CLT, 1-0 v CLB. Only two of those strike me as impressive, and both had the CCL asterisk (then again, Philly was involved too.)
Purgatory (Pending, aka, Need to Work Out Some Sins…Fail to)
First, to separate the rising from the falling. Again, notes where they seem worthwhile…
Someone Paid Indulgences!
Club du Foot Montreal, Toronto FC, FC Dallas, Austin FC, Red Bull New York, Charlotte FC
With the exception of Charlotte, I’d call all these teams just one quality, near-term result away from ascending into Heaven.
Your Living Loved Ones Have Forsaken You
Houston Dynamo, Atlanta United FC, Columbus Crew SC, Real Salt Lake, Portland Timbers, New England Revolution, Colorado Rapids
A lot of this is just stagnation, though a couple teams do have me worried - e.g., Columbus and RSL. The Revs are alone in needing to get their defense online (can’t believe they’ve given up 16 already), but it’s mainly scoring issues that plagues Portland and the Rapids. There is one special case, though…
Houston Dynamo
They are just above the playoff line, and the three wins that got them there - v VAN, @ MIA and v SJ - don’t exactly instill fear. They’ve got three of the next four at home, not one of them a gimme - e.g., v ATX, v NSH, v SEA - so holding serve would be impressive. Going the other way, they have to start winning games like that to go anywhere good.
Hell (aka, Don’t; Teams Who Help Other Teams Reach the Playoffs by Repeated Failing)
DC United, FC Cincinnati, Inter Miami CF, Vancouver Whitecaps FC, San Jose Earthquakes, Chicago Fire FC, Sporting Kansas City
At least three of these teams - DC, Cincy and Miami - don’t need much to break outta Hell. I don’t like Cincy’s odds (then again, the note on Houston seems relevant here), and Miami’s don’t look much better. I’d call DC the team with the best shot at leaving the pits of fire and ice behind. Speaking of…
DC United
“[Interim head coach Alex] Covelo’s got to overwrite the entire defensive scheme the Quakes have been running for years, but in D.C., even though the results this year and down the stretch last year were bad, a lot of Losada’s soccer ideas are good. The underlying numbers really liked what he put into place in 2021 (I’m in several group chats/Slack groups with quants, and they all lost their collective s&^# when Losada was fired), and Ashton was smart enough to keep the baseline principles like the formation (3-4-2-1), the line of confrontation (high!) and the aggressiveness of the fullbacks.”
That’s from Doyle’s column. For the curious.
One last thing: I get that a lot of teams are stagnating, but not many of them have made me look smart every week quite like SKC. Till further notice, you won’t go far wrong betting against them.
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