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| Confident he thinks soccer is for communists, but still... |
I had the pleasure of sitting through all of Houston Dynamo FC’s 4-3 win over the San Jose Earthquakes. And I mean that: that was a fun game, plus I got to see Jeremy Ebobisse score apretty brace (miss you, sir; door’s open for me). Sadly, I’m not sure how much anything I saw there helps me know what to expect during the Portland Timbers’ visit to the (not yet) muggy flatlands of East Texas.
To start, I can assure whatever pain you believe the Timbers' defense has caused you personally, it pales next to what San Jose fans endured at Houston (and generally, from what I gather). Neither team played the cleanest game - in fact, they both gave it away like they didn't want it - but San Jose got so turned in circles that they handed Houston chance after chance - probably a multiple of total goals they scored, even if a low one. The Timbers defense commits the odd gaffe - and, hear me out, what if they don’t do that Saturday? - so Houston should have to work harder for this one. Also, hold that thought…
Acknowledging the above doesn’t get the Timbers off scot-free, obviously, not with the way Houston plays. I, like you, do not like the idea of Fafa Picault running at any of Justin Rasmussen (because, rookie), Pablo Bonilla (because destructive puppy; also, done with his suspension, yeah?) or Josecarlos Van Rankin (because, let me count the ways); and that whole situation only gets worse when you fold a marauding Adam Lundqvist into the equation. Houston’s Tyler Pasher could cause some problems as well, but I have more faith in Claudio Bravo and less in Pasher and that helps me feel a little safer about Portland’s left. I still expect to see some amount of clean-up from whoever starts at center-back (more below), but that’s never not true, so…
To lay all my cards on the table, and this brushes past a recent history of struggles in Texas (ft. The Worst Governor in America), I see this as a game a good Timbers team should win. Still, that's the question isn't: are the Timbers a good team in 2022? That remains open in my mind, sadly, and will remain so until the full roster is 100% online, and that’s the thought that rubs against said open question. What can be established (provided you don't think about all the flaws in the theory) is that Portland is a better team than Houston and, by the associative property (transitive?), better than San Jose. Think of it as striving to be the big fish among the minnows.
I don’t have to tell any Timbers fan that, two games excepted (Week 1 v NE, and last weekend at VAN), Portland’s offense hasn’t scored more than one goal per game. Here’s why that matters…
To start, I can assure whatever pain you believe the Timbers' defense has caused you personally, it pales next to what San Jose fans endured at Houston (and generally, from what I gather). Neither team played the cleanest game - in fact, they both gave it away like they didn't want it - but San Jose got so turned in circles that they handed Houston chance after chance - probably a multiple of total goals they scored, even if a low one. The Timbers defense commits the odd gaffe - and, hear me out, what if they don’t do that Saturday? - so Houston should have to work harder for this one. Also, hold that thought…
Acknowledging the above doesn’t get the Timbers off scot-free, obviously, not with the way Houston plays. I, like you, do not like the idea of Fafa Picault running at any of Justin Rasmussen (because, rookie), Pablo Bonilla (because destructive puppy; also, done with his suspension, yeah?) or Josecarlos Van Rankin (because, let me count the ways); and that whole situation only gets worse when you fold a marauding Adam Lundqvist into the equation. Houston’s Tyler Pasher could cause some problems as well, but I have more faith in Claudio Bravo and less in Pasher and that helps me feel a little safer about Portland’s left. I still expect to see some amount of clean-up from whoever starts at center-back (more below), but that’s never not true, so…
To lay all my cards on the table, and this brushes past a recent history of struggles in Texas (ft. The Worst Governor in America), I see this as a game a good Timbers team should win. Still, that's the question isn't: are the Timbers a good team in 2022? That remains open in my mind, sadly, and will remain so until the full roster is 100% online, and that’s the thought that rubs against said open question. What can be established (provided you don't think about all the flaws in the theory) is that Portland is a better team than Houston and, by the associative property (transitive?), better than San Jose. Think of it as striving to be the big fish among the minnows.
I don’t have to tell any Timbers fan that, two games excepted (Week 1 v NE, and last weekend at VAN), Portland’s offense hasn’t scored more than one goal per game. Here’s why that matters…
One reason Houston sits two points higher in the table than Portland is that they’ve allowed six (6) fewer goals. Some of that probably follows from the way Houston’s new head coach Paolo Nagamura set up his defense to match its personnel (instead of say, jerking off over his own dream “system”). Moreover, and I’m basing this on how they played San Jose, the Dynamo didn’t go nuts with pressing: they used two, or at most three, players to vaguely menace 'Quakes defenders as they passed out of the back, with the rest staying organized in banks of four - more or less; the shape got sloppier as the minutes ticked up - and working to keep San Jose in front of them. Except when they switched off; the second goal was particularly egregious (and "pretty brace" above, for the curious). It also makes a decent case for early crosses, certainly earlier than the Timbers usual, prolonged search for the perfect pass in a cluttered area.
When they turned over the ball - and Matias Vera does a decent job of this - both Picault and Pasher got as far forward they can and Houston plays to those runs with an eye to skipping a line or two of defenders. Another Houston midfielder, Adalberto Carrasquilla hits a pretty accurate long ball (and looks pretty useful overall) and I’m guessing they have it in them to punish any fullback who cheats too high - yes, even with Pasher.
People might have noticed that Houston’s new forward signing, Sebastian Ferreira scored a brace in Week 6. For what it’s worth, I’m more worried about what I saw in his second goal than I was the first. That’s not to say I can’t see the Timbers defense losing total and complete track of a forward on a set-piece, but that’s a pretty simple move to defend, so long as a team knows to look for it. On the second goal, meanwhile, Ferreira showed good spacial awareness - i.e., he gave Picault room to cut inside and kept himself open, but far enough from Picault's run to remain an option - and good discipline to not slip offside, or otherwise do something dumb in the service of making himself the “hero.” And the patience and placement on the shot wasn’t at all bad either. I can’t say Ferreira blew me away - i.e., he spurned a nicely-wrapped gift didn’t show the ability to create his own shot - but he did well with his moments. As any decent forward will do.
The last thing I want to pick at here is Houston’s strength of schedule. It’s possible…fine, probable, that I overstated the weakness of their early 2022 schedule in the MLS Week 6 Weakly, when I should have credited them for getting all three points when they should - e.g., v VAN, @ MIA, and v SJ (that’s as opposed to v RSL, @SKC, and v COL, from which they picked up just two points of nine). So, the big picture takeaway for Portland can be summed up as, don’t be Vancouver, Miami or San Jose. Feels like a low enough bar, yeah?
Ideally, this result will turn on the Portland Timbers’ attack, and not its defense. I didn’t see Houston commit crazy numbers forward and expect the same controlled approach on Saturday. Assuming Houston doesn’t hand them opportunities in transition, I’d like to see Portland’s attack focus on playing through the lines as quickly and however they can. That feels like Portland’s best bet for getting through or around a compacted Dynamo defense, or better, not letting it set up in the first place - though the latter is pretty damn hard to pull of absent transition opportunities.
Portland keeps getting players back, so some of what happens could depend on, say, how much of Sebastian Blanco Portland gets on Saturday, and for how long. I’m hoping to see Eryk Williamson finally start…even if I’m not 100% sure how I’d get him in there (maybe with Yimmi Chara as a pair of free radicals in front of Diego Chara and Cristhian Paredes?), but I think this game turns on whether Portland can score and, ideally, more than once.
Finally, I haven’t mentioned Darwin Quintero yet, but I suspect he’ll be the biggest X-factor for Houston. The longer they keep the Timbers off the board, the more time he’ll have to pop out of nowhere and bop them on the nose. At any rate, we shall see…
When they turned over the ball - and Matias Vera does a decent job of this - both Picault and Pasher got as far forward they can and Houston plays to those runs with an eye to skipping a line or two of defenders. Another Houston midfielder, Adalberto Carrasquilla hits a pretty accurate long ball (and looks pretty useful overall) and I’m guessing they have it in them to punish any fullback who cheats too high - yes, even with Pasher.
People might have noticed that Houston’s new forward signing, Sebastian Ferreira scored a brace in Week 6. For what it’s worth, I’m more worried about what I saw in his second goal than I was the first. That’s not to say I can’t see the Timbers defense losing total and complete track of a forward on a set-piece, but that’s a pretty simple move to defend, so long as a team knows to look for it. On the second goal, meanwhile, Ferreira showed good spacial awareness - i.e., he gave Picault room to cut inside and kept himself open, but far enough from Picault's run to remain an option - and good discipline to not slip offside, or otherwise do something dumb in the service of making himself the “hero.” And the patience and placement on the shot wasn’t at all bad either. I can’t say Ferreira blew me away - i.e., he spurned a nicely-wrapped gift didn’t show the ability to create his own shot - but he did well with his moments. As any decent forward will do.
The last thing I want to pick at here is Houston’s strength of schedule. It’s possible…fine, probable, that I overstated the weakness of their early 2022 schedule in the MLS Week 6 Weakly, when I should have credited them for getting all three points when they should - e.g., v VAN, @ MIA, and v SJ (that’s as opposed to v RSL, @SKC, and v COL, from which they picked up just two points of nine). So, the big picture takeaway for Portland can be summed up as, don’t be Vancouver, Miami or San Jose. Feels like a low enough bar, yeah?
Ideally, this result will turn on the Portland Timbers’ attack, and not its defense. I didn’t see Houston commit crazy numbers forward and expect the same controlled approach on Saturday. Assuming Houston doesn’t hand them opportunities in transition, I’d like to see Portland’s attack focus on playing through the lines as quickly and however they can. That feels like Portland’s best bet for getting through or around a compacted Dynamo defense, or better, not letting it set up in the first place - though the latter is pretty damn hard to pull of absent transition opportunities.
Portland keeps getting players back, so some of what happens could depend on, say, how much of Sebastian Blanco Portland gets on Saturday, and for how long. I’m hoping to see Eryk Williamson finally start…even if I’m not 100% sure how I’d get him in there (maybe with Yimmi Chara as a pair of free radicals in front of Diego Chara and Cristhian Paredes?), but I think this game turns on whether Portland can score and, ideally, more than once.
Finally, I haven’t mentioned Darwin Quintero yet, but I suspect he’ll be the biggest X-factor for Houston. The longer they keep the Timbers off the board, the more time he’ll have to pop out of nowhere and bop them on the nose. At any rate, we shall see…
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