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| One analogy. |
Because it’s been a couple weeks, I want to start by reminding people - while blushing, just to get that on record - how I viewed/organized every team competing in MLS after Week 4:
Long Season (aka, Playoffs)
New England Revolution, New York City FC, Seattle Sounders, Colorado Rapids, Portland Timbers, Nashville SC, Los Angeles FC, Philadelphia Union, Minnesota United FC, Real Salt Lake, Orlando City SC, Columbus Crew SC, Atlanta United FC, Club du Foot Montreal
Fodder, aka, the Teams Who Help Other Teams Reach the Playoffs by Failing (aka, Nope!)
DC United, Vancouver Whitecaps FC, Toronto FC, San Jose Earthquakes, Houston Dynamo, Austin FC, Charlotte FC, Inter Miami CF, FC Cincinnati, Los Angeles Galaxy, Red Bull New York, Sporting Kansas City, FC Dallas, Chicago Fire FC
The Watch-List - Good!
FC Dallas
The Watch-List - Bad![Ed. - I was 66% wrong!]
Real Salt Lake
Club du Foot Montreal
Nashville SC
I’ve spent...too many hours trying to figure out how to either reorganize and/or rename both the teams and categories and I finally (but also almost certainly not really) landed on a framing that makes sense. It’ll take me at least 500 words to get there, so buckle up and thank you for your patience.
Week 5 threw a decent number of curveballs - e.g., if nothing else, the away team won eight of the fourteen games played - but some detail and/or narrative pointed to some, or even most, of that. Some games fit that description better than others (even if for momentarily non-obvious reasons), while some other games just seem…meaningless. In my mind, those are the games a neutral fan can safely dismiss as…let’s call it unedifying. In Week 5, those were (game summaries are linked to in the final score):
Chicago Fire 0-0 FC Dallas
FC Cincinnati 3-4 Club du Foot Montreal (if you want to read my long-form “oof” about it)
DC United 0-1 Atlanta United FC
Philadelphia Union 2-0 Charlotte FC
San Jose Earthquakes 2-2 Austin FC
Inter Miami CF 1-3 Houston Dynamo
Colorado Rapids 1-1 Real Salt Lake
Some of those results have more narrative than others - e.g., was Chicago’s defense better than Dallas offense (or even vice versa; also, I read Shaqiri limped off for Chicago)? and was Colorado v Dallas Week 5’s best homage to Apollo Creed v Rocky, i.e., technique v braun? - but none of them move me one way or the other on any of those teams. For instance, I’ve seen nothing that tells me DC doesn’t suck, Philly’s better than Charlotte, and, epically bad as I suspect San Jose is right now (Matt Doyle’s assessment: “Search virtually any defensive metric out there and the Quakes are at or near the bottom of the standings.”), that result still moves Austin in the direction I expect them to go - e.g., not higher.
Going the other way, these are the games from Week 5 that, for one reason or another - and I won’t be stating them, this is suggestion, advertising - feel like they sent a signal.
Toronto FC 2-1 New York City FC
Columbus Crew SC 0-1 Nashville SC
New England Revolution 0-1 Red Bull New York
Orlando City SC 2-4 Los Angeles FC
Minnesota United FC 1-2 Seattle Sounders
Vancouver Whitecaps FC 1-0 Sporting Kansas City
Portland Timbers 1-3 Los Angeles Galaxy (if you want to read my long-form “oof” about it)
Assuming that’s everyone, it’s time to revise the Org Chart posted above, and into smarter categories. And, full disclosure, I’m basing all the placements and changes on the following: watching two full games (Cincy v Montreal and Portland v LA; yes, this weekend did suck), watching two MLS in 15 videos (Vancouver v SKC and Minnesota v Seattle), the box scores on those games, plus the short (e.g., four-minute) highlights and box scores for the games that interest me, the Bless'd and Holy Form Guide, and, finally, whatever I can pick out of the Armchair Analyst (aka, Matt Doyle) weeklies (you’ll see “Doyle” off and on down there, and that’s the reference). With that, here’s an updated, re-themed take on where I see all the teams in MLS right now. And I’m using the card game, War, as the theme.
10 or Better (aka, Comfortably Project to Playoffs)
Philadelphia Union, Red Bull New York, Los Angeles FC, Seattle Sounders, Orlando City SC, New York City FC, New England Revolution, Real Salt Lake, Los Angeles Galaxy, Colorado Rapids, Minnesota United FC, Nashville SC
2-5 (aka, Don’t; Teams Who Help Other Teams Reach the Playoffs by Repeated Failing)
DC United, Charlotte FC, FC Cincinnati, Inter Miami CF, Austin FC, Vancouver Whitecaps FC, San Jose Earthquakes
6-9 (aka, a Reasonable Bet to Go Either Way)
Atlanta United FC, Chicago Fire FC, Columbus Crew SC, Club du Foot Montreal, Toronto FC, FC Dallas, Houston Dynamo FC, Sporting Kansas City, Portland Timbers
First, for anyone wondering why I placed better teams under worse ones (i.e., why are the crap cards over middling ones?), the main thing I’m after in these reviews is predictability - or, more specifically, what’s more (not most; I avoid absolutes) likely to happen when any given two teams come together? From there, I’m fishing for anomalies - e.g., the results that don’t make sense, particularly when they happen in either strings or some pattern that feels true, or that at least follows a certain kind of logic.
Long Season (aka, Playoffs)
New England Revolution, New York City FC, Seattle Sounders, Colorado Rapids, Portland Timbers, Nashville SC, Los Angeles FC, Philadelphia Union, Minnesota United FC, Real Salt Lake, Orlando City SC, Columbus Crew SC, Atlanta United FC, Club du Foot Montreal
Fodder, aka, the Teams Who Help Other Teams Reach the Playoffs by Failing (aka, Nope!)
DC United, Vancouver Whitecaps FC, Toronto FC, San Jose Earthquakes, Houston Dynamo, Austin FC, Charlotte FC, Inter Miami CF, FC Cincinnati, Los Angeles Galaxy, Red Bull New York, Sporting Kansas City, FC Dallas, Chicago Fire FC
The Watch-List - Good!
FC Dallas
The Watch-List - Bad![Ed. - I was 66% wrong!]
Real Salt Lake
Club du Foot Montreal
Nashville SC
I’ve spent...too many hours trying to figure out how to either reorganize and/or rename both the teams and categories and I finally (but also almost certainly not really) landed on a framing that makes sense. It’ll take me at least 500 words to get there, so buckle up and thank you for your patience.
Week 5 threw a decent number of curveballs - e.g., if nothing else, the away team won eight of the fourteen games played - but some detail and/or narrative pointed to some, or even most, of that. Some games fit that description better than others (even if for momentarily non-obvious reasons), while some other games just seem…meaningless. In my mind, those are the games a neutral fan can safely dismiss as…let’s call it unedifying. In Week 5, those were (game summaries are linked to in the final score):
Chicago Fire 0-0 FC Dallas
FC Cincinnati 3-4 Club du Foot Montreal (if you want to read my long-form “oof” about it)
DC United 0-1 Atlanta United FC
Philadelphia Union 2-0 Charlotte FC
San Jose Earthquakes 2-2 Austin FC
Inter Miami CF 1-3 Houston Dynamo
Colorado Rapids 1-1 Real Salt Lake
Some of those results have more narrative than others - e.g., was Chicago’s defense better than Dallas offense (or even vice versa; also, I read Shaqiri limped off for Chicago)? and was Colorado v Dallas Week 5’s best homage to Apollo Creed v Rocky, i.e., technique v braun? - but none of them move me one way or the other on any of those teams. For instance, I’ve seen nothing that tells me DC doesn’t suck, Philly’s better than Charlotte, and, epically bad as I suspect San Jose is right now (Matt Doyle’s assessment: “Search virtually any defensive metric out there and the Quakes are at or near the bottom of the standings.”), that result still moves Austin in the direction I expect them to go - e.g., not higher.
Going the other way, these are the games from Week 5 that, for one reason or another - and I won’t be stating them, this is suggestion, advertising - feel like they sent a signal.
Toronto FC 2-1 New York City FC
Columbus Crew SC 0-1 Nashville SC
New England Revolution 0-1 Red Bull New York
Orlando City SC 2-4 Los Angeles FC
Minnesota United FC 1-2 Seattle Sounders
Vancouver Whitecaps FC 1-0 Sporting Kansas City
Portland Timbers 1-3 Los Angeles Galaxy (if you want to read my long-form “oof” about it)
Assuming that’s everyone, it’s time to revise the Org Chart posted above, and into smarter categories. And, full disclosure, I’m basing all the placements and changes on the following: watching two full games (Cincy v Montreal and Portland v LA; yes, this weekend did suck), watching two MLS in 15 videos (Vancouver v SKC and Minnesota v Seattle), the box scores on those games, plus the short (e.g., four-minute) highlights and box scores for the games that interest me, the Bless'd and Holy Form Guide, and, finally, whatever I can pick out of the Armchair Analyst (aka, Matt Doyle) weeklies (you’ll see “Doyle” off and on down there, and that’s the reference). With that, here’s an updated, re-themed take on where I see all the teams in MLS right now. And I’m using the card game, War, as the theme.
10 or Better (aka, Comfortably Project to Playoffs)
Philadelphia Union, Red Bull New York, Los Angeles FC, Seattle Sounders, Orlando City SC, New York City FC, New England Revolution, Real Salt Lake, Los Angeles Galaxy, Colorado Rapids, Minnesota United FC, Nashville SC
2-5 (aka, Don’t; Teams Who Help Other Teams Reach the Playoffs by Repeated Failing)
DC United, Charlotte FC, FC Cincinnati, Inter Miami CF, Austin FC, Vancouver Whitecaps FC, San Jose Earthquakes
6-9 (aka, a Reasonable Bet to Go Either Way)
Atlanta United FC, Chicago Fire FC, Columbus Crew SC, Club du Foot Montreal, Toronto FC, FC Dallas, Houston Dynamo FC, Sporting Kansas City, Portland Timbers
First, for anyone wondering why I placed better teams under worse ones (i.e., why are the crap cards over middling ones?), the main thing I’m after in these reviews is predictability - or, more specifically, what’s more (not most; I avoid absolutes) likely to happen when any given two teams come together? From there, I’m fishing for anomalies - e.g., the results that don’t make sense, particularly when they happen in either strings or some pattern that feels true, or that at least follows a certain kind of logic.
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| The bigger analogy. |
The question of what makes a result look “predictable” works two ways, i.e., it’s based as much on a team’s form as the quality on the roster. That’s where the War analogy came from. Think of every game on any given week as one play in the card game War. For instance, you feel pretty good going in with, say, a Queen, but that doesn’t guarantee you’ll take the (often shitty, pointless) pile. Your odds look good, but nothing’s certain. Soccer isn’t remotely as random, of course, but, to translate that thought to a game from Week 5, think Philly v Charlotte, or Miami v Houston. Stick up for this or that detail all you want, but those games feel like soft calls for a reason.
Now, for the rest of this post, I’m going to explain anything in the above…hierarchy that feels like it needs explaining. That’ll take more some weeks than others - and I’ll provide links when and as needed - but I wanted to get away from the dreary work of marching through results, because I think that format walks too far toward elevating results over trends. And, again, the latter is what I’m really tracking: real, tangible trends, aka, the actual goals to the xG. As I see it, both goals and results only count when a team makes ‘em happen. Good? OK, let’s talk pick through the notables…
New England Revolution
I’m mostly noting the persistence of the wobble for now. As noted in last week’s preview post, I expected Red Bull to offer a challenge, and so they did. The game looked pretty even by the numbers and RBNY’s scored a man down and off some truly random shit, but that doesn’t erase the fact the Revs have lost three straight, all against teams and in places (e.g., v RSL, @ CLT, v RBNY) where they shouldn’t.
Seattle Sounders
Minnesota have been a tough nut to crack, but the Sounders did it and in some style. The box score gave Minnesota the edge in xG - and that supports their considerable late push for an equalizer -but Seattle/that bastard Stefan Frei weathered it. I expect them to start/keep rolling for now.
Orlando City SC
They’re a little punchless (see home loss to FC Cincy) and LAFC just punched ‘em pretty efficiently and well in Week 5, and Antonio Carlos limped off for them early in the same…so, yeah, I feel a little funny projecting them as a safe bet for the playoffs. I’m keeping them up on the grounds they play a pretty controlled game, but they scored some nice goals against LAFC (even the offside opener was pretty slick), and that makes me think they’re safe.
Real Salt Lake
Most of what I’ve seen and read tells me they’re playing above their heads - though, in their defense, with a ward’s worth of injuries - but they’ve got the right coach to keep them up there. Seriously:
“We knew we were going to endure waves of possession. As long as we stayed organized and had cover for each other, although it’s agonizing at times, at the same time it builds belief in the group with every wave that you snuff out. Given our current situation, nothing is ideal that we’re going through. What is ideal is the mindset of the guys to not make excuses for what we don’t have but really step up, be brave in difficult moments and come away with a result.”
- Pablo Mastroeni, channeling Henry V, with Shakespeare writing the speeches.
Los Angeles Galaxy
They back up their placement with their record, Doyle trusts their defensive midfield shape (Raveloson w. Delgado) and, regardless of whether Portland had an off-day, the Galaxy played them off the park.
Colorado Rapids
If you tell me they’re underperforming, I’m going to agree with you. I put them on the same plane as Orlando; only I trust Orlando’s finishing more. For now. But the Rapids are sturdy and they’ll get there.
Minnesota United FC
They’re only getting a goal per game, something Doyle puts down to Reynoso struggling (he’s 66th in xA at the moment), but they’re also hell to beat and a good defense takes a team places - especially in a league where half the teams make the post-season.
Nashville SC
“It is not pretty soccer. I sometimes feel like Gary Smith is stealing my life from me 90 minutes at a time.”
- Matt Doyle
I doubt Nashville is where they want to be right now (might even include the Western Conference), but, with one exception, they’ve been on the road for every game and they’re getting points out of tough venues (e.g., @ SEA, @ MIN, @ CLB) - and they got the last one without McCarty and Zimmerman. Also, it’s highlights like these that make me question xG as a metric: they got clean enough looks to register higher than 0.9 in my book.
FC Cincinnati
Brandon Vazquez can only carry a team so far; Cincy has bled too many goals early, for me, and not against the best teams. In fact, if you take out Orlando, they’ve played a soft schedule. I see a lot of people feeling confident, but I’m holding off till they play tougher opposition.
Club du Foot Montreal
They’re holding on above the abyss for one and only one reason: they are playing soccer well when they do it. Cincinnati’s defense saved them from what would be a loss on any other day.
Toronto FC
NYCFC look better in the box score, but Toronto looked better in both the highlights and the final score. They’re showing enough signs of life to left them out of the dead-enders. Also, Doyle had good notes on new forward, Jesus Jimenez (aka, “god-tier chemistry” with the team), how the defensive shape looks good and promising signs from the youth movement.
Houston Dynamo FC
Miami (a terrible team) was more active, but Houston looked considerably more efficient, even if the hosts gifted them some insanely wide-open looks (see this one; yes, it's late, but it's still representative). But it’s word that new coach Paolo Nagamura has got their defense in shape that makes me wonder if Houston won’t trip up some teams in 2022. The question, of course, is how many.
Sporting Kansas City
Yep, they’ve been bad, but I was willing to put that down to injury till this last result. Also, from Doyle’s column:
“Tim Melia, Roger Espinoza, Graham Zusi, Andreu Fontas…all of them are in their mid-30s, and none of them have performed at their previous levels. Uri Rosell, Gadi Kinda, Alan Pulido, Daniel Salloi and Johnny Russell…all of them hurt and either limited or entirely absent.”
This is why I freak out when I see a team resisting the inevitable transition seasons.
Portland Timbers
Yeah, the Timbers will probably get better and, yeah, I heard the comments during the broadcast that this is far from an abnormal start for Portland. I also can’t ignore the results so far, and how they’ve earned them in all the wrong ways. So, they’ve been downgraded…
That’s all for this one. If you want to know why I put your team where I did, feel free to ask either in the comments or find me on twitter (@JeffBull5). I’ll give an answer, promise.
Now, for the rest of this post, I’m going to explain anything in the above…hierarchy that feels like it needs explaining. That’ll take more some weeks than others - and I’ll provide links when and as needed - but I wanted to get away from the dreary work of marching through results, because I think that format walks too far toward elevating results over trends. And, again, the latter is what I’m really tracking: real, tangible trends, aka, the actual goals to the xG. As I see it, both goals and results only count when a team makes ‘em happen. Good? OK, let’s talk pick through the notables…
New England Revolution
I’m mostly noting the persistence of the wobble for now. As noted in last week’s preview post, I expected Red Bull to offer a challenge, and so they did. The game looked pretty even by the numbers and RBNY’s scored a man down and off some truly random shit, but that doesn’t erase the fact the Revs have lost three straight, all against teams and in places (e.g., v RSL, @ CLT, v RBNY) where they shouldn’t.
Seattle Sounders
Minnesota have been a tough nut to crack, but the Sounders did it and in some style. The box score gave Minnesota the edge in xG - and that supports their considerable late push for an equalizer -but Seattle/that bastard Stefan Frei weathered it. I expect them to start/keep rolling for now.
Orlando City SC
They’re a little punchless (see home loss to FC Cincy) and LAFC just punched ‘em pretty efficiently and well in Week 5, and Antonio Carlos limped off for them early in the same…so, yeah, I feel a little funny projecting them as a safe bet for the playoffs. I’m keeping them up on the grounds they play a pretty controlled game, but they scored some nice goals against LAFC (even the offside opener was pretty slick), and that makes me think they’re safe.
Real Salt Lake
Most of what I’ve seen and read tells me they’re playing above their heads - though, in their defense, with a ward’s worth of injuries - but they’ve got the right coach to keep them up there. Seriously:
“We knew we were going to endure waves of possession. As long as we stayed organized and had cover for each other, although it’s agonizing at times, at the same time it builds belief in the group with every wave that you snuff out. Given our current situation, nothing is ideal that we’re going through. What is ideal is the mindset of the guys to not make excuses for what we don’t have but really step up, be brave in difficult moments and come away with a result.”
- Pablo Mastroeni, channeling Henry V, with Shakespeare writing the speeches.
Los Angeles Galaxy
They back up their placement with their record, Doyle trusts their defensive midfield shape (Raveloson w. Delgado) and, regardless of whether Portland had an off-day, the Galaxy played them off the park.
Colorado Rapids
If you tell me they’re underperforming, I’m going to agree with you. I put them on the same plane as Orlando; only I trust Orlando’s finishing more. For now. But the Rapids are sturdy and they’ll get there.
Minnesota United FC
They’re only getting a goal per game, something Doyle puts down to Reynoso struggling (he’s 66th in xA at the moment), but they’re also hell to beat and a good defense takes a team places - especially in a league where half the teams make the post-season.
Nashville SC
“It is not pretty soccer. I sometimes feel like Gary Smith is stealing my life from me 90 minutes at a time.”
- Matt Doyle
I doubt Nashville is where they want to be right now (might even include the Western Conference), but, with one exception, they’ve been on the road for every game and they’re getting points out of tough venues (e.g., @ SEA, @ MIN, @ CLB) - and they got the last one without McCarty and Zimmerman. Also, it’s highlights like these that make me question xG as a metric: they got clean enough looks to register higher than 0.9 in my book.
FC Cincinnati
Brandon Vazquez can only carry a team so far; Cincy has bled too many goals early, for me, and not against the best teams. In fact, if you take out Orlando, they’ve played a soft schedule. I see a lot of people feeling confident, but I’m holding off till they play tougher opposition.
Club du Foot Montreal
They’re holding on above the abyss for one and only one reason: they are playing soccer well when they do it. Cincinnati’s defense saved them from what would be a loss on any other day.
Toronto FC
NYCFC look better in the box score, but Toronto looked better in both the highlights and the final score. They’re showing enough signs of life to left them out of the dead-enders. Also, Doyle had good notes on new forward, Jesus Jimenez (aka, “god-tier chemistry” with the team), how the defensive shape looks good and promising signs from the youth movement.
Houston Dynamo FC
Miami (a terrible team) was more active, but Houston looked considerably more efficient, even if the hosts gifted them some insanely wide-open looks (see this one; yes, it's late, but it's still representative). But it’s word that new coach Paolo Nagamura has got their defense in shape that makes me wonder if Houston won’t trip up some teams in 2022. The question, of course, is how many.
Sporting Kansas City
Yep, they’ve been bad, but I was willing to put that down to injury till this last result. Also, from Doyle’s column:
“Tim Melia, Roger Espinoza, Graham Zusi, Andreu Fontas…all of them are in their mid-30s, and none of them have performed at their previous levels. Uri Rosell, Gadi Kinda, Alan Pulido, Daniel Salloi and Johnny Russell…all of them hurt and either limited or entirely absent.”
This is why I freak out when I see a team resisting the inevitable transition seasons.
Portland Timbers
Yeah, the Timbers will probably get better and, yeah, I heard the comments during the broadcast that this is far from an abnormal start for Portland. I also can’t ignore the results so far, and how they’ve earned them in all the wrong ways. So, they’ve been downgraded…
That’s all for this one. If you want to know why I put your team where I did, feel free to ask either in the comments or find me on twitter (@JeffBull5). I’ll give an answer, promise.
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