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| The MLS Standings, in puffin form. |
Courtesy of an invitation I can’t refuse (or, honestly, don’t want to), I may or may not actually catch this one. That said, this wouldn’t be a bad one to skip, at least based on what I expect to see. Let’s talk about why…
It’s not secret that the Portland Timbers have…not started strong. The Vancouver Whitecaps haven’t done any better - e.g., two fewer points than Portland, a guano-spattered roost immediately below in the standings (if with the one game in hand, along with most of the league); they have a -6 goal differential to Portlands…-4 (call it a teaser) and the ‘Caps have scored three, count ‘em, three goals in 2022 (0.6 goals per game, woo!). So, why is it so damn hard to see the Timbers coasting to victory up in Canada tomorrow night?
Both teams share similar patterns of play for one, e.g., two shit results aside, both on the road - for Vancouver/the record, their 0-4 loss at Columbus Crew SC in Week 1 and a 1-3 loss at Los Angeles FC in Week 4 (fuck it, I'm doing this once; here's the Form Guide; dig as the spirit moves you) - but both Portland and Vancouver have played the opposition close outside of that. Still, those shit results say both teams are capable of defensive collapses in the right situation. I’d be stunned if that happens to Portland in Vancouver, so stunned I’ll leave that thought there. To dig a little deeper
I have yet to dig deep or, more bluntly, give a shit about the Whitecaps’ in 2022. Between playing so many on the road and hosting tricky teams at home - e.g., they hosted a CCL-leggy New York City FC in Week 2 (0-0 draw), and Sporting Kansas City last weekend (1-0 W, for the ‘Caps) - Vancouver has by and large delivered the results I expected them to in each (i.e., losses, maybe draws), so what’s to investigate? Because I hop on every MLS in 15 highlight like a junkie, and knowing this game was coming up, I did dig into Vancouver’s win last weekend against SKC and, it gives off strong “only a mother/diehard can love this” vibes. The ‘Caps scored a half-trash goal somewhat late, with a big assist from SKC’s aggression approach to defense (two players eager to please “angry dad” (aka, Peter Vermes), bolted after the same ball, leaving the fatal space behind) and the chance for the shot getting tangled between Lucas Cavallini and Ryan Raposo (who actually scored it). Overall, the game had all the grace of a bunch of drunken Labradors chasing a ball on ice skates. The xG sucked (1.0 for Vancouver, a dismal 0.6 for SKC; also this isn't atypical) and no one looked particularly great outside moments, and the game didn’t dish many of those.
Judging by the bits and pieces I’ve picked through, “not looking particularly great” has defined/hobbled Vancouver’s 2022 so far. Lucas Cavallini has a pair of goals - the other came at Houston, if memory serves - but Brian White didn’t show up till last weekend, and last season’s game changer, Ryan Gauld, hasn’t regained the live-wire 2021 form that turned enough 0-0 draws into 1-0 wins for the ‘Caps and/or the post-season. I saw some loose praise for new arrival, Tristan Blackmon (CB, came from LAFC by Charlotte, I think), but Vancouver shipped last year’s ‘keeper, Maxime Crepeau, to LAFC - and he’s taken them up a notch, much as he did for the ‘Caps last season (another fun parallel; who misses Steve Clark?). Put all that together, the basic book on Vancouver’s early 2022 reads as thinner margins on both sides - i.e., less dangerous in the attack, less secure at the back…which, as Timbers fans know, rhymes a little with what they’ve been seeing/enduring, but let’s take a look at them anyway.
It's Timbers match day, so they’re down a fullback, obviously, Pablo Bonilla this time. Claudio Bravo shows as questionable (or did; I think it’s been updated, perhaps with the wounded hip somehow transferring to George Fochive), which isn’t good on a strictly warm-body basis (i.e., you need enough and in the right positions to field a full team), but, based on what I’ve seen on the twitters, fan sentiment around all the fullback options fluctuates within a thin band between mistrust and outright hostility, so does it really matter who Gio trots out? Very much related, Josecarlos Van Rankin should return to the line-up after his latest bonehead ejection, but he has generally offered more cause for anxiety than celebration so far; I’d be fine seeing rookie Justin Rasmussen start, if only to light a fire under the other fullbacks, but, with rookie mistakes all ‘round…I mean, is there a point? In brighter news, players like Eryk Williamson and Larrys Mabiala continue to graduate from the rehab table to practicing in isolation to siting on the bench; in this positive news, there’s still the whole fraught process of getting all the way back online - e.g., you could taste the rust on Dario Zuparic’s game against the LA Galaxy through the TV screen. Sebastian Blanco has the most time-in of the bunch - and that’s swell ‘n’ all - but even he’s not all the way there. He’s older, so’s Larrys, but Eryk’s younger…someone has a dodgy hip between Bravo and Fochive…Bravochive? No, OK, I get it now. Moving on...
Bottom line, all signs point to another game with a make-shift/do defense (Zac McGraw showed as questionable through “illness” somewhere online), and behind an offense still trying to sort out who does what from where. Part of me would like to see Gio Savarese rummage around a bag of tricks to shake things up, but a much larger part of me feels confident he won’t so much as look at the damn bag. And, if he believes the line of motivational crap he said into the microphone at the half last weekend, why would he? Personally, he could still sell me on the same line up if he got someone - anyone (my calendar's open!) - closer to both goal and Jaroslaw Niezgoda, but I expect he’ll try crack Vancouver’s nut with the saw broke-jawed nutcracker because this is the coach and the starting XI we have right now.
At any rate, a couple things could happen - to repeat a thought, I think Portland could get more out of Niezgoda by letting him combine deeper and, God forbid, starting Dairon Asprilla as a front-runner/hold-up guy (but, again, Gio) - but it’s also possible Santiago Moreno will take a step closer to the rhythm of the team as a whole (or he could step away), maybe Yimmi Chara (who has found as many looks as any Timber I can think of) finally finds an opening big enough that he actually fires through it…facing the goal this time, or maybe Blanco takes that last step toward normal, Eryk gets more time and makes more out of it. You know the drill…
My main concern is the defense. The ‘Caps have four points from two points at home, both against solid, but struggling teams…and, hey, another rhyme (to spell it out, what spells T-I-M-B-E-R-S right now better than S-O-L-I-D-B-U-T-S-T-R-U-G-G-L-I-N-G?). My hopes and desires fly higher than, say, a scoreless draw (my heart beats, my mind dreams, dammit!), but I feel pretty damn strongly that Portland’s best shot at three points well and truly relies on them making sure the Whitecaps don’t score…more can go wrong than I care to admit, but, this feels like a game the defense should be able to manage. It’s down to what the Timbers can do if it does.
It’s not secret that the Portland Timbers have…not started strong. The Vancouver Whitecaps haven’t done any better - e.g., two fewer points than Portland, a guano-spattered roost immediately below in the standings (if with the one game in hand, along with most of the league); they have a -6 goal differential to Portlands…-4 (call it a teaser) and the ‘Caps have scored three, count ‘em, three goals in 2022 (0.6 goals per game, woo!). So, why is it so damn hard to see the Timbers coasting to victory up in Canada tomorrow night?
Both teams share similar patterns of play for one, e.g., two shit results aside, both on the road - for Vancouver/the record, their 0-4 loss at Columbus Crew SC in Week 1 and a 1-3 loss at Los Angeles FC in Week 4 (fuck it, I'm doing this once; here's the Form Guide; dig as the spirit moves you) - but both Portland and Vancouver have played the opposition close outside of that. Still, those shit results say both teams are capable of defensive collapses in the right situation. I’d be stunned if that happens to Portland in Vancouver, so stunned I’ll leave that thought there. To dig a little deeper
I have yet to dig deep or, more bluntly, give a shit about the Whitecaps’ in 2022. Between playing so many on the road and hosting tricky teams at home - e.g., they hosted a CCL-leggy New York City FC in Week 2 (0-0 draw), and Sporting Kansas City last weekend (1-0 W, for the ‘Caps) - Vancouver has by and large delivered the results I expected them to in each (i.e., losses, maybe draws), so what’s to investigate? Because I hop on every MLS in 15 highlight like a junkie, and knowing this game was coming up, I did dig into Vancouver’s win last weekend against SKC and, it gives off strong “only a mother/diehard can love this” vibes. The ‘Caps scored a half-trash goal somewhat late, with a big assist from SKC’s aggression approach to defense (two players eager to please “angry dad” (aka, Peter Vermes), bolted after the same ball, leaving the fatal space behind) and the chance for the shot getting tangled between Lucas Cavallini and Ryan Raposo (who actually scored it). Overall, the game had all the grace of a bunch of drunken Labradors chasing a ball on ice skates. The xG sucked (1.0 for Vancouver, a dismal 0.6 for SKC; also this isn't atypical) and no one looked particularly great outside moments, and the game didn’t dish many of those.
Judging by the bits and pieces I’ve picked through, “not looking particularly great” has defined/hobbled Vancouver’s 2022 so far. Lucas Cavallini has a pair of goals - the other came at Houston, if memory serves - but Brian White didn’t show up till last weekend, and last season’s game changer, Ryan Gauld, hasn’t regained the live-wire 2021 form that turned enough 0-0 draws into 1-0 wins for the ‘Caps and/or the post-season. I saw some loose praise for new arrival, Tristan Blackmon (CB, came from LAFC by Charlotte, I think), but Vancouver shipped last year’s ‘keeper, Maxime Crepeau, to LAFC - and he’s taken them up a notch, much as he did for the ‘Caps last season (another fun parallel; who misses Steve Clark?). Put all that together, the basic book on Vancouver’s early 2022 reads as thinner margins on both sides - i.e., less dangerous in the attack, less secure at the back…which, as Timbers fans know, rhymes a little with what they’ve been seeing/enduring, but let’s take a look at them anyway.
It's Timbers match day, so they’re down a fullback, obviously, Pablo Bonilla this time. Claudio Bravo shows as questionable (or did; I think it’s been updated, perhaps with the wounded hip somehow transferring to George Fochive), which isn’t good on a strictly warm-body basis (i.e., you need enough and in the right positions to field a full team), but, based on what I’ve seen on the twitters, fan sentiment around all the fullback options fluctuates within a thin band between mistrust and outright hostility, so does it really matter who Gio trots out? Very much related, Josecarlos Van Rankin should return to the line-up after his latest bonehead ejection, but he has generally offered more cause for anxiety than celebration so far; I’d be fine seeing rookie Justin Rasmussen start, if only to light a fire under the other fullbacks, but, with rookie mistakes all ‘round…I mean, is there a point? In brighter news, players like Eryk Williamson and Larrys Mabiala continue to graduate from the rehab table to practicing in isolation to siting on the bench; in this positive news, there’s still the whole fraught process of getting all the way back online - e.g., you could taste the rust on Dario Zuparic’s game against the LA Galaxy through the TV screen. Sebastian Blanco has the most time-in of the bunch - and that’s swell ‘n’ all - but even he’s not all the way there. He’s older, so’s Larrys, but Eryk’s younger…someone has a dodgy hip between Bravo and Fochive…Bravochive? No, OK, I get it now. Moving on...
Bottom line, all signs point to another game with a make-shift/do defense (Zac McGraw showed as questionable through “illness” somewhere online), and behind an offense still trying to sort out who does what from where. Part of me would like to see Gio Savarese rummage around a bag of tricks to shake things up, but a much larger part of me feels confident he won’t so much as look at the damn bag. And, if he believes the line of motivational crap he said into the microphone at the half last weekend, why would he? Personally, he could still sell me on the same line up if he got someone - anyone (my calendar's open!) - closer to both goal and Jaroslaw Niezgoda, but I expect he’ll try crack Vancouver’s nut with the saw broke-jawed nutcracker because this is the coach and the starting XI we have right now.
At any rate, a couple things could happen - to repeat a thought, I think Portland could get more out of Niezgoda by letting him combine deeper and, God forbid, starting Dairon Asprilla as a front-runner/hold-up guy (but, again, Gio) - but it’s also possible Santiago Moreno will take a step closer to the rhythm of the team as a whole (or he could step away), maybe Yimmi Chara (who has found as many looks as any Timber I can think of) finally finds an opening big enough that he actually fires through it…facing the goal this time, or maybe Blanco takes that last step toward normal, Eryk gets more time and makes more out of it. You know the drill…
My main concern is the defense. The ‘Caps have four points from two points at home, both against solid, but struggling teams…and, hey, another rhyme (to spell it out, what spells T-I-M-B-E-R-S right now better than S-O-L-I-D-B-U-T-S-T-R-U-G-G-L-I-N-G?). My hopes and desires fly higher than, say, a scoreless draw (my heart beats, my mind dreams, dammit!), but I feel pretty damn strongly that Portland’s best shot at three points well and truly relies on them making sure the Whitecaps don’t score…more can go wrong than I care to admit, but, this feels like a game the defense should be able to manage. It’s down to what the Timbers can do if it does.
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