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| That's...a choice. |
This Saturday, the Portland Timbers take their strong start to the 2024 regular season the home of 2023’s “who did what now?” surprise team, Houston Dynamo FC. I did some scouting, this is my report.
Some Basics
Despite being just two games in their Major League Soccer regular season, CONCACAF Champions’ Le…Cup play has Houston six “real” games deep into the young 2024 season. They have won just one, versus St. Louis CITY FC at home, but they’re stumbling more than they should for a team that has hosted four at home. In their defense, they’ve played good capable, teams in them all, St. Louis and Columbus Crew SC twice, as well as a lively Red Bull New York team once (as for the 6th team…wait for the reveal). Another big picture notable: Houston has scored in every game but one – their CCC Home loss to Columbus last week.
Head coach Ben Olsen has tried a few formations, but it looks like he leans toward a somewhat conservative 4-3-3 (sample); fwiw, I’m not sure what he’ll do against the Timbers, but I’m interested. I hung “conservative” on his line-ups because he builds (most of) his middle threes around Jan Gregus, Artur, and either Coco Carrasqulla or Amine Bassi as the “creative” third. The forward line has (somewhat) consistently involved Ibrahim Aliyu and Sebastian Kowalcyzk, but has had dudes rotate in and out, mostly by absence or circumstance. As for the defense, the primary constants are Steve Clark in goal and young Brazilian Micael (Santos de Silva) in front of him with either Ethan Bartlow or Erik Sviatchenko for a partner. The left fullback and/or left-sided defender has rotated its cast as much as The Love Boat (yay old people!) and, yes, absolutely, there's Griffin Dorsey on the other side...also, hold that thought...
Olsen has this bunch playing a methodical, arguably labored, possession game that sees them play north of 450 passes in every game. I see that The Mothership’s “Availability Report” shows their absences as “To be announced” (because it’s fucking useless and/or may require you to create an account, not unlike the still-absent Form Guide (fuckers!), I'm not paranoid!), but I believe that Hector Herrera remains injured and it looks like they loaned out one-time big-time signing to Sebastian Ferrera, but he never got off paper when it came to entering Houston’s plans for league domination. Oh, and they are wafer-thin at forward, so Herrera starting looks like the only wild card.
The Review
On the grounds I wanted to see them playing at home, but not against a pressing team like St. Louis or Red Bull, I went all the way back to Houston’s regular season opener at home against Sporting Kansas City to take a peek at how they play. Why? Dunno. Seemed like the most analogous team to the Timbers all things considered. Going the other way, Olsen trotted out a 3-5-2 in that one. Most of the same players lined up and in similar positions – e.g., Kowalcyzk and Aliyu up top, with Dorsey and Brad Smith as wingbacks – but he did have the now-departed (by season-ending injury) Tate Schmitt at the left side of the back.
Finally, and full disclosure, I watched a 10-15 minute spell in the middle of the first half as preparation for sitting through the half where everything happened, the second.
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| Full swing at my head? Why not? |
Houston v SKC, in General (1-1 draw, btw)
The assistant ref pulled a hammy and got subbed out at the 82nd, so new one for me. While I'm not on that’s what passed for excitement in a game that played out about how you’d expect, some familiar adjectives apply, e.g., cagey. While far from two teams swinging like they do in the Rocky movies with chances galore, Houston posted respectable top-line attacking numbers with 6 shots on goal from 12 total; and yet let the record show that I caught only three and two of ‘em would have required the sudden expiration of Tim Melia to go in. Neither defense covered themselves in glory on the goals they allowed – a minimum of three defenders failed to step to SKC’s Erik Thommy…ever on their goal, while SKC’s shape fell apart like toilet paper in a blender on Houston’s goal – but, since this post deals mainly with Houston, I doubt they’ll give Portland a similar gift on Saturday. Finally, SKC didn’t just rattle Houston through the opening minutes of the second half, they actually drove down their alleged chances of winning per those stupid win percentage charts that AppleTV chucks out in every broadcast. That said, and for the details above and below, I do think Portland will see a similar game when they play the Dynamo Saturday – i.e., a composed, low-risk affair (Houston covers ground and recovers well defensively), but still a game that they can genuinely affect by changing what they do, maybe switching around this player (or this winger) or that. Moving on to…
Talking Points/Loose Theories
1) [Houston’s No. 9]
The use of brackets implies a missing man, but Houston started Aliyu at something like a No. 9 before bringing on former NYCFC youngster Gabriel Segal at the 67th minute (for the shockingly ineffectual former Sounder Brad Smith). They used Aliyu to push against the backline, but his runs and positioning didn’t cause much for stress. Segal, meanwhile, looks like he understands the role better and has a target-player profile – think a cut-rate (or just young) Brian White (from Vancouver) – and he did the score Houston’s goal with a heads-up run and they have been starting him more and more lately. For all that, Houston’s missing a starting-caliber No. 9 as badly as they’re missing Herrera. And that leaves the burden of carrying the attack on…
2) Kowalczyk v. Bassi
Because The Mothership can’t be bothered to update the damn site (seriously, both Segal and Gregus are still in their old unis on the line-up pages), I can’t account for Bassi’s general absence and I don’t care enough to dig for it, but it looks like he and Kowalczyk play a similar game – small wonder, too, because they’re both li’l whippets of players. Lots of work up (mostly) the right channel, coming back to receive the ball and turning to keep it moving, fairly active, and so on. Bottom line, both players look more likely to combine, fire from range, or find a back-post tap-in than to pressure one of Portland’s central defenders directly. Keep an eye on them, basically, and you should be good. I don’t know whether either player or both will star, but those are the tendencies I saw. Also, no, I didn’t forget…
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| What's missing, Part II. |
I’ve never seen him live up to his reputation/pedigree/(alleged) price-tag and, nice secondary assist on Houston’s goal and all, but I still haven’t seen it. Whether that’s a case of potential springing eternal without issue or just a case of the yips I can’t say, but the broadcast booth noted that even Olsen thinks he needs to get some numbers on the resume. Basically, he could do it anytime and keep going, he could do it just once against the Timbers this weekend. Think of it as Russian Roulette, only with just one bullet in a…let’s go with thirty chamber barrel.
4) Dorsey[strikeout]/nah, Micael
Griffin Dorsey was Houston’s most consistent attacking threat down the stretch in 2023 and during their playoff run. He was emphatically not that player against SKC, so I’m turning the last talking point over to Houston’s young, second-season (third, technically) defender Micael. He’s solid, smart, aggressive, and he feels brave enough on the ball, apparently, to carry it across a couple lines and finish it off with a forward pass. Just something to watch for, maybe exploit, but Micael looks like the real deal, and at just 23.
5) The Biggest Bottomline About Houston
While they can be disrupted – and can even make the odd, wild fuck-up (fwiw, Artur played some medium-risk slop against SKC) – the Dynamo hold the ball better than your av-e-rage team. They feel comfortable keeping the ball, and under decent control, until they find a way to get the ball into the opposition third, if with less risk than more often as not, or they give it away in an pretty damn innocuous place. Hate Olsen’s tactics all you want, that’s my best stab at the formula.
What the Timbers Do About It
Between their current, shitty record and a home game, I expect Houston to defend as high as they did against SKC – at least at times. Houston defends the same way regardless – i.e., they put more value on keeping shape that getting after the ball (squeezed in a 6th talking point, hey-oh!) – and I expect the same Saturday and therefore, limited chances for the Timbers. If Portland scores first and early, maybe that changes, but I still don’t see Houston gambling hard enough to hand Portland high-percentage counters. As such, the Timbers should either run with the ever and unchangeable Plan A – suck Houston in, then hit them in transition – or steal a goal out of possession without assuming much in the way of risk. Think stretch the field through either Santiago Moreno, Antony or Juan David Mosquera, and then following up as needed. Make Houston beat you, basically, with an eye on taking the point before you worry about all three.
We’ll see how it plays out and wrap it up on…I’m thinking Sunday.
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