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| Imagine him running to you in a field of wildflowers. |
Why not? Let’s see if we can’t get things entirely wrong for the third straight week…
Some Basics
The Vancouver Whitecaps got off to an impressive 2-1-1- start in 2024, if with the curiosity of both wins came on the road – and with impressive goal differentials too (3-1 at FC Dallas and 2-0 at the San Jose Earthquakes; also, yes, both team tripped out of the gate). Home games have been less kind, yielding just one point from a home game against Charlotte FC and and bupkiss against Real Salt Lake just last weekend. Vanni Sartini has committed to a 3-4-3 throughout, if with variations, but he hasn’t been on the sidelines until (checks watch) this weekend. Maybe that gives them a boost, maybe it doesn’t; I just know I’m pulling for the latter.
On the numbers side, they’re holding steady at one goal allowed per game and pushing two goals for, but, again, the goals haven’t come at home, which, to be fair, could be nothing more complicated than playing tougher teams at home than they have on the road.
Some familiar names remain in the lineup – e.g., Ryan Gauld, of course, and who doesn’t know the man who’s played for every team in MLS by now, Fafa Picault – but there’s a real possibility that another familiar name, Brian White, will sit this one out in concussion protocol. That would be a tragedy for one of MLS’s great everyman players, if it comes to that, but it would be a timely let off for the Timbers? To anyone looking for why that is, I give you Exhibit A, aka, his assist on Vancouver’s lone goal against RSL. Speaking of…
The Review
I have a little more to work with in terms of how the ‘Caps have scored goals in 2024 and crosses, and approaching wide in general, look like the most popular paths. They commit numbers when they do go forward, loading the box with as many as five players and even sending in a sixth for good measure (see here), so Portland’s midfielders need to stay frosty on those late runs. Fortunately, that plays to one of Portland’s strengths, aka, Zac McGraw who bosses the aerial game like few players in MLS. It doesn’t eliminate it by any stretch, Vancouver can always play the ball where he isn’t, but that’s a decent plus to have in the back pocket.
Before digging into Vancouver’s home loss against RSL, I have a couple loose caveats to drop on the whole thing. First, they missed both Andres Cubas and Fafa Picault due to international duty (how the hell Haiti is fielding a team right now, I do not know). I know Picault’s absence changed hey played – Damir Kreilach can barely stretch his hamstrings at this point, never mind the field - but I’m less sure on Cubas. I have watched him in past seasons, however, and rate him as a strong two-way player, i.e., a sturdy, ball-moving No. 6. Still, whether or not he makes Vancouver bolder remains an open question, because they played like shrinking, if poised, violets last weekend.
Vancouver Whitecaps v Real Salt Lake, etc.
First and foremost, and based on all the history I know, the Timbers will absolutely not play the way RSL did. The Timbers don’t press often and rarely go all-in when they do. That didn’t make RSL’s game, but it did tilt the field their way, particularly in the second half, and gave them real momentum. This gets back to Cubas’ absence – i.e., was it live (did RSL pin the back) or was it Memorex (does Vancouver play the same way, even with Cubas)? No fucking idea, so let’s move on to what I saw.
On the attacking side, think Houston Dynamo FC: methodical, even careful, but still fairly effective. It looks like the Vancouver likes to spread the field and make the opposition defend space as much as they track players. That hasn’t generated a lot of shots so far – I think they’ve cracked 10 shots just once so far – but they pry ‘em wide when they find them. On a personnel level, Gauld roams all over the middle and attacking third to get the ball to make things happen and, even with White out, he’ll have Picault to stretch the space field and a savvy short option Kreilach for a foil. Gauld gets good shuttling support from Alessandro Schopf (who looks to operate up the right, even when lined up centrally) and Pedro Vite. RSL played high against that set-up and, while it succeeded generally, Vancouver played through it often enough even if it wasn’t always. They can play when they get on the ball, in other words, but Vancouver didn’t show much interest in getting on the ball – and doesn’t generally. Even with Cubas in the lineup. Which brings the conversation to the trickier conundrum.
Vancouver’s back three – generally, Tristan Blackmon, Ranko Vessilenovich, and Matias Laborda (more on him later) – stayed deep in a way that has bedeviled the Timbers for a half decade or more. Laborda excepted, they only seem to come up for set pieces and that deep position plays into something else the ‘Caps do (or have done) defensively: keep their shape as if they’re keeping the faith. I saw Vancouver’s forward players engage high plenty of times, but never at the cost of stretching the shape. At most, they’d challenge the first pass and then fall back as the passes moved up the field until the whole thing settled into a very compact shape, aka, the thing that robs Timbers players of all inspiration and their fans of all hope.
One final note: I dipped into the Vancouver subreddit for a read on how they viewed the RSL loss to RSL and came out with a couple themes – some that continue some general impressions about and around the team. A belief that the ‘Caps need to punch above their weight to win anything seems baked in and with good reason: they’ve been the beat-upon kid brother in the Cascadia family throughout the MLS era and, more to the point; Vancouver factually is one of the least successful teams in MLS history. Going the other way – and this is what I’m going to keep front of mind when I watch this game - ‘Caps fans don’t just hope to see better things from the current lineup, they expect to – and in a way that transcends brute fandom. Right, let’s wrap this one up…
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| .............whoa............ |
1) Respect Gauld, Just Do It as a Team
Again, Gauld drifts all over and, yes, he can do real damage. That doesn’t mean freak out and do something wild like man-mark him, but Portland should do everything it can to knock him off rhythm and, more importantly, Timbers need to keep him top of mind and hand him off with the exacting attention one sees in…I don’t know, judging a dog show or refereeing, i.e., a laser-like focus on details and the spiraling consequences of each one of them...but, seriously, let him run his legs of, while putting real thought into disrupting his passing and making all that effort go to demoralizing waste.
2) This Week’s Spin on the 3-4-3
Between the regular competitive impulse to get things going in the right direction and wanting to help Sartini walk out of his suspension into a high, I’ll be stunned of Vancouver plays the Timbers they way they played RSL. Barring injury or illness, I’m confident Cubas will anchor a sturdier middle three and wouldn’t be surprised to see Picault and Levonte Johnson start on either side Kreilach, all of which should make them faster and more willing to run against the Timbers’ back-line, particularly wide. At the same time, that deep, absorbing back three works in a way I can’t see them abandoning. It’s like soccer’s spin on a land war in Asia.
2a) How That Becomes Dangerous
Picault typically pillages the space that Juan David Mosquera abandons every time he’s pushing the game. Zac McGraw v Picault in a pasture on the right is the first, second and third ingredient of a recipe for disaster. But wait! It gets worse.
2b) Ali Ahmed Is Antony Fast
The highlight of his 2024 surely has to be the late goal against San Jose, where he capped sitting a defender on his ass by tearing the far-side netting on the finish. In the game against RSL, Ahmed destroyed Andrew Brody in a foot-race. Ahmed has come on as a sub every time so far (I think) but expect him to be a lot to contain regardless of when he gets in there.
How the Timbers Cope With That
1) Accept the Invitation, If After a Decent Interval
If Vancouver yields space and the ball, as they have all season, the Timbers should take them up on it. I don’t know that they should do it as if commanded by the starting whistle – hence the “decent interval” part of the title – but I expect Vancouver to assume The Shape and believe the Timbers should play to break it.
2) Take Shots from Range
I can think of many occasions that call for this time-honored tactic, but this game seems to recommend. It’s one way to loosen up a deep defense, but there’s also Vancouver’s ‘keeper, Yohei Takaoka. He has good feet and works great as an outlet/passing hub, but I’ve never seen him live up to his reputation as “the Nick Rimando of the J-League” on the shot-stopping side. So, fire freely, early and often you crazy diamonds.
3) Midfield Defending
Here, it’s mostly about collapsing bodies into the box any time Vancouver gets the ball wide in Portland’s defensive third. Not to the point of losing late runs from midfield on those same plays…but what is that if not the point of the tactic?
The sum of all that reads like low-scoring and dull, but what makes more sense when two teams meet with both looking to right the ship? Here’s to hoping Saturday delivers something better or, failing that, just interesting.
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