Portland Timbers 1-4 Vancouver Whitecaps: The Brutal Laws of the Game & a Game to Aggressively Memory-Hole

So long as it feels better later, I'm good.

The rules of the game, when read and applied in black and white, make some calls unavoidable, even inevitable. I don’t know what Kamal Miller could have done differently in real time – i.e., Brian White’s first touch took the ball into the space into which Miller was running to catch up, he couldn’t do much to avoid some contact, so the real question was always going to turn on the kind of contact that occurred (you can toggle to the video here, but the link doesn't appear to change to the specific highlight) – but, no matter how many details you drop into the basic scenario, there is simply no getting around the fact that Miller was the last defender covering White, an attacking player running into a one-v-one against the ‘keeper, Maxime Crepeau.

I’m confident some Portland Timbers fan will undertake a frame-by-frame deconstruction to argue that White went down too easily and that another other fan will explore the practical physics of how much weight Miller’s hand would have needed to exert upon White’s shoulder in order to cause him to actually fall: by my reading, calling White for a dive presents the only alternative to the red card and I don’t see enough in what happened to sustain a flop.

Miller’s red card wasn’t the only mistake the Timbers made today; it was merely the first. It took several more to get to today’s lopsided 1-4 loss to the Vancouver Whitecaps in Portland. Again. The smoldering question turns on how many of those mistakes followed from Miller’s red card against the balance of them that happened all on their own.

Before getting to that, or to anything else really, I want any Timbers fan who finds this post to keep one thought firmly in mind: as much as this result stings, maybe even embarrasses, it does not matter. It doesn’t matter even a little. Portland still has 33 games left to play and they remain very much alive on the bare terms of competing for an indulgently generous allotment of playoff slots. As MLS fans learn every season, and appear to unlearn after each regular season starts, a team can eat absolute clown-shit for three, even four months and still redeem the season with a good run in the playoffs – see, United FC, Atlanta, just one season ago (even if their own fans don’t entirely feel it). So, throw in the fact that the Timbers couldn’t field its best-possible team, take a deep breath, take the L (/spectator-sports equivalent of an enema), get out those binoculars so that you can take the longest possible view of the overall situation…

…which isn’t the same thing as thinking the Timbers are destined to have a good season, never mind a great one.

Vancouver Whitecaps 1-1 Portland Timbers: I Accept This Result, I Love This Result

This can't be anything but disorienting.

The Portland Timbers rolled out of Vancouver with a point after last night’s 1-1 draw at BC Place. Based on a quick little spin around the Timbers subreddit, I liked this result more than others, maybe even more than I should. I’ll defend that choice between now and the end, but first…

The Very Basics
The Vancouver Whitecaps went up 1-0 with the opening whistle still echoing around the stadium (c’mon, roll with it). If the Timbers had hoped to ease their way into the game, the shock of Brian White’s ever-so-early (and unnervingly easy) goal hit them like a bucket of ice water waking them from sleep. The shock of it carried over the opening 15-20 minutes of the game: no Portland player seemed to know where he should be and where he should go from there. The “shock” metaphor seems especially apt because once the Timbers woke all the way up, they took hold of the game and, but for one “this fucking game” moment (Andres Cubas pinging Maxime Crepeau’s left post in second half stoppage), they never let go of it. Portland’s confidence grew side-by-side with the quality of their chance creation – i.e., Antony’s solo-run/desperate flail from the right to Juan David Mosquera firing from a seam up the middle to Santiago Moreno forcing Yohei Takaoka to save off a freekick - until Rodriguez crowned the recovery on his second bite of the apple with a deflected equalizer (his first bite was offside, sadly). The second half was all Timbers (the official stats can go to Hell), with Portland turning 50/50s into 70/30s all over the field and cutting off 90% of the paths out of Vancouver’s half. Had Takaoka’s left post not kept out Felipe Mora’s picture-perfect header, I’d bet my left leg (the bad one, fwiw) that the Timbers would be in 7th this morning.

What’s to Love
To anyone feeling blue about two points (arguably) slipping away, I’d respond with this: which team do you think feels better about not just last night’s result, but last night’s game? Sure, Vancouver punched their ticket to the post-season, but would you rather be the team ruing a slow start and 20 wasted minutes or the team trying to figure out 60+ minutes of getting played off your own pitch – and with three more crucial home games to go? The larger context only makes it worse for the 'Caps: the Timbers have defeated playoff-competitive teams since the Leagues Cup break, while the ‘Caps haven’t beat one since early July (Minnesota, on the road), or even June (Colorado, at home; Minnesota was flailing under the playoff line when the ‘Caps beat them in July). Even if you lean into the argument that Portland can only win at home, last night’s draw with the wild road draw at RSL behind it shows the Timbers getting results that, by the grace of penalty kicks, can become playoff wins. Finally, Portland has the comfort of knowing how they measure up against playoff-bound teams: both Portland and Vancouver have gone 4-3-3 over their past ten games, but the Timbers have played seven playoff-bound teams versus just four for Vancouver. That script will flip over the next two games for Portland and the next three for Vancouver – the Timbers play Austin then Dallas, while Vancouver hosts Seattle, Minnesota and LAFC – and that makes the two points separating them look at little smaller. And yet, neither team had all hands on deck…

Vancouver Whitecaps Scouting Report: What to Do When You're Expecting a Land War in Asia

Imagine him running to you in a field of wildflowers.

Why not? Let’s see if we can’t get things entirely wrong for the third straight week…

Some Basics

The Vancouver Whitecaps got off to an impressive 2-1-1- start in 2024, if with the curiosity of both wins came on the road – and with impressive goal differentials too (3-1 at FC Dallas and 2-0 at the San Jose Earthquakes; also, yes, both team tripped out of the gate). Home games have been less kind, yielding just one point from a home game against Charlotte FC and and bupkiss against Real Salt Lake just last weekend. Vanni Sartini has committed to a 3-4-3 throughout, if with variations, but he hasn’t been on the sidelines until (checks watch) this weekend. Maybe that gives them a boost, maybe it doesn’t; I just know I’m pulling for the latter.

On the numbers side, they’re holding steady at one goal allowed per game and pushing two goals for, but, again, the goals haven’t come at home, which, to be fair, could be nothing more complicated than playing tougher teams at home than they have on the road.

Some familiar names remain in the lineup – e.g., Ryan Gauld, of course, and who doesn’t know the man who’s played for every team in MLS by now, Fafa Picault – but there’s a real possibility that another familiar name, Brian White, will sit this one out in concussion protocol. That would be a tragedy for one of MLS’s great everyman players, if it comes to that, but it would be a timely let off for the Timbers? To anyone looking for why that is, I give you Exhibit A, aka, his assist on Vancouver’s lone goal against RSL. Speaking of…

The Review

I have a little more to work with in terms of how the ‘Caps have scored goals in 2024 and crosses, and approaching wide in general, look like the most popular paths. They commit numbers when they do go forward, loading the box with as many as five players and even sending in a sixth for good measure (see here), so Portland’s midfielders need to stay frosty on those late runs. Fortunately, that plays to one of Portland’s strengths, aka, Zac McGraw who bosses the aerial game like few players in MLS. It doesn’t eliminate it by any stretch, Vancouver can always play the ball where he isn’t, but that’s a decent plus to have in the back pocket.

Houston Dynamo FC Scouting Report: Leading with the Chin, Boldly

That's...a choice.

This Saturday, the Portland Timbers take their strong start to the 2024 regular season the home of 2023’s “who did what now?” surprise team, Houston Dynamo FC. I did some scouting, this is my report.

Some Basics

Despite being just two games in their Major League Soccer regular season, CONCACAF Champions’ Le…Cup play has Houston six “real” games deep into the young 2024 season. They have won just one, versus St. Louis CITY FC at home, but they’re stumbling more than they should for a team that has hosted four at home. In their defense, they’ve played good capable, teams in them all, St. Louis and Columbus Crew SC twice, as well as a lively Red Bull New York team once (as for the 6th team…wait for the reveal). Another big picture notable: Houston has scored in every game but one – their CCC Home loss to Columbus last week.

Head coach Ben Olsen has tried a few formations, but it looks like he leans toward a somewhat conservative 4-3-3 (sample); fwiw, I’m not sure what he’ll do against the Timbers, but I’m interested. I hung “conservative” on his line-ups because he builds (most of) his middle threes around Jan Gregus, Artur, and either Coco Carrasqulla or Amine Bassi as the “creative” third. The forward line has (somewhat) consistently involved Ibrahim Aliyu and Sebastian Kowalcyzk, but has had dudes rotate in and out, mostly by absence or circumstance. As for the defense, the primary constants are Steve Clark in goal and young Brazilian Micael (Santos de Silva) in front of him with either Ethan Bartlow or Erik Sviatchenko for a partner. The left fullback and/or left-sided defender has rotated its cast as much as The Love Boat (yay old people!) and, yes, absolutely, there's Griffin Dorsey on the other side...also, hold that thought...

Olsen has this bunch playing a methodical, arguably labored, possession game that sees them play north of 450 passes in every game. I see that The Mothership’s “Availability Report” shows their absences as “To be announced” (because it’s fucking useless and/or may require you to create an account, not unlike the still-absent Form Guide (fuckers!), I'm not paranoid!), but I believe that Hector Herrera remains injured and it looks like they loaned out one-time big-time signing to Sebastian Ferrera, but he never got off paper when it came to entering Houston’s plans for league domination. Oh, and they are wafer-thin at forward, so Herrera starting looks like the only wild card.

Portland Timbers 2-3 Vancouver Whitecaps: We Have to Talk About Evander

A song for the situation...

On the one hand, the final 20 minutes of effort couldn’t rescue the prior 70 minutes of not-good-enough. On the other, it was good to see the Portland Timbers play with some level of professional pride. To float an idea I’ve never really formulated before, maybe every team plays 50% harder after the coach gets fired so they can prove it really was him and not them?

I can list all the not-good-enough from tonight’s game, but I’m leaning against doing it for two reasons: 1) it continued the same wretched trends from the season so far, and 2) change takes time. Hell, it’ll probably take a new coach. I mean, who’s thinking of the Miles Joseph era as anything but the bridge to the team’s real future? Hell, the man doesn’t even bark at the fourth official like a proper head coach. (Is that a 400-level course or more disposition, nurture v nature, and so?)

The game happened as it did – the Timbers defense dropped on the first swing, going down on a back-post goal by the Vancouver Whitecaps’ Ryan Gaul in the 13th minute; then went down one goal further when the ‘Caps broke through their ramshackle press; honestly, the game was probably over at that point – but every lecture starts with a thesis, so here’s mine: Evander lost this game for the Timbers. And not for the first time either.

Again, this is the man brought in to win games for the Timbers.

The crucial moment came when Evander stumbled through Richie Laryea – a player moving away from goal – inside the penalty area. Right before that happened, the Timbers had just pulled back one of the two goals mentioned above. I’ll get to Portland’s first goal down below, but the complete and utter dipshittery (sp?) of committing that foul on a retreating player inside the area and giving up a penalty kick? That is elite stupidity. Fuck it, maybe file this under a karmic punchline to everyone’s complaint about Evander not trying hard enough. At any rate, the Timbers probably ran out of road after the genuinely impressive Ryan Gauld (one man, two goals, one assist) buried the ensuing penalty kick (and for why a 0:47 highlight showing a penalty kick, but not one damn clip about the foul that caused it? Rummage, worms!) and once Vancouver went up 3-1. The game ended 3-2 in Vancouver’s favor and there it is: another game older and deeper in debt.

Portland Timbers 1-1 Vancouver Whitecaps: Plan Fucking A, Forever and Always

Portland's attacking tactics, a visual.

I’ll start with two thoughts. First, the fan-base grumpiness about this result, if just in my corner of twitter, is top-notch. Second, I’ve typed some version of “this won’t take long” 400+ times, but I’m pretty damn confident that the sum of what I just watched will help me deliver on that promise.

The Portland Timbers 1-1 home draw against the Vancouver Whitecaps fulfilled every expectation/failure laid out in my preview, if with the lonely exception that Vancouver pressed a bit around the 20th minute of the first half. Otherwise, that now-cursed thing functioned as a script, only absent the inspiration. Vancouver lined up the way I expected them to, they mostly defended as expected, they got a goal off a cross to the back-post (if the opposite of the one I expected; also, the failure was decidedly complex); the Timbers attack, meanwhile, did everything I hoped they wouldn’t, as in they literally checked every goddamn box. And that, ladies and gents, is the alpha, the omega, and the answer to every question except why this game didn’t end 1-0 in Vancouver’s favor.

To stick up for the kids who get a gold star for today, I thought Santiago Moreno, Larrys Mabiala, Aljaz Ivacic, and Claudio Bravo all had decent games – if mainly on the attacking side in Bravo’s case, and the man clearly has a day-job to which he does not always attend. I’m willing to give honorable mention to Dario Zuparic and Diego Chara generally, Cristhian Paredes here and there, and Yimmi Chara early in the game, but, collectively, that was 90-minutes of muscles twitching to pulses of electricity delivered with all the subtlety of a 12-year-old mashing buttons on Mortal Combat. Both teams made chances out of their moments of coherence – and, loathe as I am to say it, though the stats do back it up a bit (see shots on goal), Vancouver managed more than the Timbers – but that game delivered a bounty of bad soccer on all sides of those moments. Felt like watching MLS in the 2000s, and in all the wrong ways.

To his credit, Ivacic cleaned up most of the messes Portland’s defense left him – most critically, his two early saves in the first half – but the Timbers defense had a generally respectable night. For the...how many games have the Timbers played so far? 21? – call it the 11th time this season (this includes every game the Timbers allowed one or fewer goals), Portland’s defense did enough. And so, for the...huh, 13th time this season, I’ll close this very short post with a rant about the Timbers “attack.”

Portland Timbers 2-3 Vancouver Whitecaps: Proportionate Angst

They say it's a marathon, not a sprint...

After going up 2-0 in a game they controlled, but without playing all that well, the Portland Timbers fell apart one goal at a time to hand the Vancouver Whitecaps a 3-2 win at Providence Park. Portland didn’t look sharp all night, so, when the ‘Caps raised their energy…pfft.

The broadcast booth talked up Brian White coming on for Lucas Cavallini as the turning point, but I caught a whiff of something different fairly early in the game. To paraphrase a tweet:

“I can’t read the Timbers’ mood. Is it [calm] or complacency?”

The original word for the one between the brackets was “confidence,” but this performance never looked confident…hold on, is misplaced confidence a long form version of complacency? At any rate, it didn’t feel so unreasonable to believe the way the Timbers could hold its shit together after Deiber Caicedo pulled one back for Vancouver on a hero goal off a sprint up the gut; again, they controlled the first half. That doesn’t mean the patterns were actually encouraging - they weren’t - but, you know, shake off the cobwebs, step up the pace, etc.

I just realized that only 13 minutes passed between Caicedo’s goal and the equalizer. When Brian White saw the cross coming before Juancarlos Van Rankin and scored, he didn’t do anything that every other player in dark blue hadn’t done since the second half whistle blew: Whitecaps players beat Timbers to the ball all over the field, as if they got a pep-talk at the half (or their asses chewed to pieces) and Gio lined up a round of double shots of Goldschlager instead.

Yeah, yeah, the penalty kick. The Timbers would have been lucky to get one point by that time, and they wound up with zero as a result. And I don’t want to spare anyone from blame. I saw Dairon Asprilla go less than his usual all-in on at least two 50/50s in Vancouver’s defensive third. That shit’s contagious and, by the end of the first half, it bit every player on the field sporting a smart white shirt and snazzy green shorts. If only their play matched…