FC Cincinnati v Red Bull New York Preview: Keeping the Bulls at Bay

Their logo compels them.

It’s been respectable for FC Cincinnati lately, good even, and they’ve battled multiple Eastern giants to one point per. It looks another week of the same thing on the menu, but, fuck it, it’s 2022, so let ‘er rip and dream big. First, some relevant facts:

Red Bull New York
Record/Basics: 9-5-5, 32 points, 3-2-4 home; 6-3-1 away; 29 gf, 20 ga, +9 goal differential
Last 10: TTTLWLWLWW (1-3-1 on the road, including all three road losses of 2022; hmmm...)
Oppo: v POR, @ PHI, v CHI, @ MIA, v DC, @ CLT, v TOR, @ LAFC, v ATL, @ SKC

What We Know About Them
Taking inspiration from the corporate logo on their shirts, the Red Bulls chase every pass, ball and player like blood-doped demons. Oh, and their forwards – mostly Patrick Klimala and Tom Barlow – have been crap this season (just 7 goals and 3 assists between them). Still, they’re difficult to play against and just as hard to beat and their road form, though worse lately (see above, maybe celebrate a little), ranks near the top of the league.

When it comes to goals for/allowed, they’re on the right side of average (24.7) in both categories; going the other way, they scored nearly half their goals in just four games - 4-1 @ TOR, 3-0 @ ORL, 3-3 v CHI, 4-1 v DCU. Game-to-game, then, they don’t score a lot (that’s good!), but, with that defense(/defensive scheme), they don’t need to (awww); then again, they’d given up two goals in every road game prior to their last, a 1-0 road-win over a serially hapless Sporting Kansas City team. About that...

Notes on Recent Form
Big picture, they’ve won four of their last six – a pretty compelling feat regardless of team/venue/form. It’s that specific context that makes their offensive production borderline embarrassing: they posted shitter-level xG in three of their past five games (0.7 or less), and topped out at 1.4 at home against Toronto. That said, that 0.7 xG fails to capture the way they seemed to flick a switch at the start of the 2nd half at SKC and find great looks (four for sure, maybe five) until Aaron Long nodded home off a corner. They went down a man for the final 20+ minutes of that game (due to stoppage time) and, a couple chances aside (one of them cleared off the line), they made SKC piss ‘em them all way with a combination of rabid-hyper-puppy harrassment and shithousery (Klimala, in particular, who found his special purpose).

Portland Timbers Preview: On Fears of Getting Run Over

We all need a hero...

Red Bull New York has yet to win at home in the 2022 season. that’s the cheeriest thought I have to pass on about the Portland Timbers’ trip to Harrison, New Jersey this weekend.

The buzz from Yimmi Chara’s back-to-back bicycle-kick goals wore off weeks ago, leaving Portland’s fans sipping stale coffee in the hopes that, if nothing else, they can stay awake until the Timbers do. The Timbers’ goals-for number stalled just over three games ago (is it possible for that number to go down?) - think the exact number is 282 minutes plus stoppage time - and I’m imagineering like a motherfucker, but still can’t picture how that changes against a Red Bulls team that, assuming they play as they normally do, will press every passer for large stretches of this game. On the plus side, Josecarlos Van Rankin is suspended for this one.

He's the most draining culprit, of course, but not many Timbers have looked like a realist’s picture of composure for several weeks. I can see any number of Portland players making a loose pass or failing to control the same, and turnovers like that will put the Red Bulls between two and five passes from scoring. The Red Bulls have scored reliably this season - they’ve only been kept off the board twice so far (again, both games at home). Just one more note on this: as with their pressing, you don’t see the goal coming until they ball has already gone in. That’s to say, unless I’m very wrong about how this game will play out, Portland’s Aljaz Ivacic will need to come alert and limber for this one.

The only break I really see Portland catching: the theoretical possibility that they’ll be able to transition against the Red Bulls gegen-press (against v gegen?). The Red Bulls do throw numbers into their press, something that should help the Timbers get vertical; going the other way, their press has looked super well-organized in all the investigative safaris I’ve undertaken - and I’ve got a second on that perception from the broadcast both more than once. Add a couple steady backstops (e.g., Aaron Long and Sean Nealis), a pair of herding-dog maniacs in front of them (e.g., Christian Casseres, Jr. and Frank Amaya, most of the time), and you’re left waiting for Carlos Coronel to bail you out with something stupid. Bottom line, Red Bull has been for any team to play through - they’ve given up just seven goals so far (average = 0.78 goals per game) - and that doesn’t pair so good with…you know.