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| Their logo compels them. |
It’s been respectable for FC Cincinnati lately, good even, and they’ve battled multiple Eastern giants to one point per. It looks another week of the same thing on the menu, but, fuck it, it’s 2022, so let ‘er rip and dream big. First, some relevant facts:
Red Bull New York
Record/Basics: 9-5-5, 32 points, 3-2-4 home; 6-3-1 away; 29 gf, 20 ga, +9 goal differential
Last 10: TTTLWLWLWW (1-3-1 on the road, including all three road losses of 2022; hmmm...)
Oppo: v POR, @ PHI, v CHI, @ MIA, v DC, @ CLT, v TOR, @ LAFC, v ATL, @ SKC
What We Know About Them
Taking inspiration from the corporate logo on their shirts, the Red Bulls chase every pass, ball and player like blood-doped demons. Oh, and their forwards – mostly Patrick Klimala and Tom Barlow – have been crap this season (just 7 goals and 3 assists between them). Still, they’re difficult to play against and just as hard to beat and their road form, though worse lately (see above, maybe celebrate a little), ranks near the top of the league.
When it comes to goals for/allowed, they’re on the right side of average (24.7) in both categories; going the other way, they scored nearly half their goals in just four games - 4-1 @ TOR, 3-0 @ ORL, 3-3 v CHI, 4-1 v DCU. Game-to-game, then, they don’t score a lot (that’s good!), but, with that defense(/defensive scheme), they don’t need to (awww); then again, they’d given up two goals in every road game prior to their last, a 1-0 road-win over a serially hapless Sporting Kansas City team. About that...
Notes on Recent Form
Big picture, they’ve won four of their last six – a pretty compelling feat regardless of team/venue/form. It’s that specific context that makes their offensive production borderline embarrassing: they posted shitter-level xG in three of their past five games (0.7 or less), and topped out at 1.4 at home against Toronto. That said, that 0.7 xG fails to capture the way they seemed to flick a switch at the start of the 2nd half at SKC and find great looks (four for sure, maybe five) until Aaron Long nodded home off a corner. They went down a man for the final 20+ minutes of that game (due to stoppage time) and, a couple chances aside (one of them cleared off the line), they made SKC piss ‘em them all way with a combination of rabid-hyper-puppy harrassment and shithousery (Klimala, in particular, who found his special purpose).
What else? If your current mental picture of Carlos Coronel is a colossal, game-killing fuck-up, chase that thought from your memory, because the man has played some impressive ball lately. As for the rest...well, it’s fittingly collective.
Personnel & Its Disposition
If their more recent schedule can be trusted, the Red Bulls have mainly started in either a 3-4-1-2 or, most often (I think), 4-2-3-1 (I'm expecting something like this one, minus Sean Nealis, who is suspended). The “two” has been the most stable – they generally pair Christian Casseres, Jr. with Frank Amaya – and it has been effective; both those guys will run your legs off and they (if Casseres more so) have decent attacking upside. As noted above, the forwards have sucked to the point of irrelevance, but they’ve got a pair of reasonably tricky players, typically on either side of the high-midfield “3” in Lucas Lima Linhares, aka, Luquinho, and the lung-busting Lewis Morgan. I’ve seen Omir Fernandez slot into the middle of the “3,” but he hasn’t...well, that’s just say my mind’s still intact.
Red Bull New York
Record/Basics: 9-5-5, 32 points, 3-2-4 home; 6-3-1 away; 29 gf, 20 ga, +9 goal differential
Last 10: TTTLWLWLWW (1-3-1 on the road, including all three road losses of 2022; hmmm...)
Oppo: v POR, @ PHI, v CHI, @ MIA, v DC, @ CLT, v TOR, @ LAFC, v ATL, @ SKC
What We Know About Them
Taking inspiration from the corporate logo on their shirts, the Red Bulls chase every pass, ball and player like blood-doped demons. Oh, and their forwards – mostly Patrick Klimala and Tom Barlow – have been crap this season (just 7 goals and 3 assists between them). Still, they’re difficult to play against and just as hard to beat and their road form, though worse lately (see above, maybe celebrate a little), ranks near the top of the league.
When it comes to goals for/allowed, they’re on the right side of average (24.7) in both categories; going the other way, they scored nearly half their goals in just four games - 4-1 @ TOR, 3-0 @ ORL, 3-3 v CHI, 4-1 v DCU. Game-to-game, then, they don’t score a lot (that’s good!), but, with that defense(/defensive scheme), they don’t need to (awww); then again, they’d given up two goals in every road game prior to their last, a 1-0 road-win over a serially hapless Sporting Kansas City team. About that...
Notes on Recent Form
Big picture, they’ve won four of their last six – a pretty compelling feat regardless of team/venue/form. It’s that specific context that makes their offensive production borderline embarrassing: they posted shitter-level xG in three of their past five games (0.7 or less), and topped out at 1.4 at home against Toronto. That said, that 0.7 xG fails to capture the way they seemed to flick a switch at the start of the 2nd half at SKC and find great looks (four for sure, maybe five) until Aaron Long nodded home off a corner. They went down a man for the final 20+ minutes of that game (due to stoppage time) and, a couple chances aside (one of them cleared off the line), they made SKC piss ‘em them all way with a combination of rabid-hyper-puppy harrassment and shithousery (Klimala, in particular, who found his special purpose).
What else? If your current mental picture of Carlos Coronel is a colossal, game-killing fuck-up, chase that thought from your memory, because the man has played some impressive ball lately. As for the rest...well, it’s fittingly collective.
Personnel & Its Disposition
If their more recent schedule can be trusted, the Red Bulls have mainly started in either a 3-4-1-2 or, most often (I think), 4-2-3-1 (I'm expecting something like this one, minus Sean Nealis, who is suspended). The “two” has been the most stable – they generally pair Christian Casseres, Jr. with Frank Amaya – and it has been effective; both those guys will run your legs off and they (if Casseres more so) have decent attacking upside. As noted above, the forwards have sucked to the point of irrelevance, but they’ve got a pair of reasonably tricky players, typically on either side of the high-midfield “3” in Lucas Lima Linhares, aka, Luquinho, and the lung-busting Lewis Morgan. I’ve seen Omir Fernandez slot into the middle of the “3,” but he hasn’t...well, that’s just say my mind’s still intact.
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| Fear in the mind-killer. |
The personnel matters – e.g., they’re better with Long at the back, Amaya and Casseres really have looked good, and Luquinhas can pull a live animal out of his ass, even if what comes out has more or less crowd-appeal – but it’s mostly what everyone already knows: the Red Bulls put you under pressure relentlessly. Whether it’s collapsing on every passer and then other players rushing to the nearest players or pushing the ball forward into even every half opening, RBNY just pushes the game; even the smattering or crappy, long-shot diagonals served the purpose. It’s sloppy, more annoying than effective about 90% of the time, but it’s also better for seven more points than Cincinnati has.
Now, Based on All That...
Unreliable sources tell me Junior Moreno, Dom Badji and Ronald Matarrita will sit this one out, but Obinna Nwobodo coming back in brings it close enough to “the gang’s all here” for me. Cincy have impressed me with their collective aplomb of late, so I’m not unduly anxious about them managing the Red Bull press. I don’t see much need to dick with personnel – though, personally, I’d start Alvas Powell over Ray Gaddis, and I’d start Haris Medunjanin (assuming he’s available) next to Nwobodo on the grounds that he’s got the best crack at punishing the Red Bulls if they press their defensive line too high – which is how LAFC burned themtwice inside three minutes. Ah, shit. Go ahead and file that last one as the first of my...
Some Things I Hope to See FC Cincinnati Do
1) Game-Plan for Maximal Shit-Togetheredness
I don’t have a strong opinion as to which of Cincy’s players are most comfortable on the ball at their respective positions, but I bet Pat Noonan does and hope he starts the relevant players in every case. Few things contain the Red Bull attack as well as not letting them turn over possession where they want to. They don’t have a lot of great passers, for one, but this is a team that breaks defenses down with pressure over passing.
2) Patience
And not just because the Red Bulls will work feverishly to make that seem like a terrible idea.
They also don’t have a history of creating a lot of chances – 15 is a great night, based on what I’ve seen, 10-11, with a few on-frame seems normal – so I want to see Cincy to think long-term when it comes to managing the game. What I’m saying is that I want to see them try to manage it. I think it’ll pay off and, barring actual mistakes, without much for risk.
3) I Like Vazquez as a Foil
Even without Sean Nealis, I think the Red Bull defense can handle most of what Brandon Vazquez does (they are rugged). With that in mind, I’m hoping to see Vazquez used more for hold-up play, i.e., a fulcrum for what he can get out of Luciano Acosta, Brenner and (I’m guessing) Alvaro Barreal. I think (or I hope) that that set of players – with the occasional deep run from a fullback or Nwobodo and whomever – can get a goal against that defense. Maybe even two.
Nothing left to do but kick the ball....
Now, Based on All That...
Unreliable sources tell me Junior Moreno, Dom Badji and Ronald Matarrita will sit this one out, but Obinna Nwobodo coming back in brings it close enough to “the gang’s all here” for me. Cincy have impressed me with their collective aplomb of late, so I’m not unduly anxious about them managing the Red Bull press. I don’t see much need to dick with personnel – though, personally, I’d start Alvas Powell over Ray Gaddis, and I’d start Haris Medunjanin (assuming he’s available) next to Nwobodo on the grounds that he’s got the best crack at punishing the Red Bulls if they press their defensive line too high – which is how LAFC burned themtwice inside three minutes. Ah, shit. Go ahead and file that last one as the first of my...
Some Things I Hope to See FC Cincinnati Do
1) Game-Plan for Maximal Shit-Togetheredness
I don’t have a strong opinion as to which of Cincy’s players are most comfortable on the ball at their respective positions, but I bet Pat Noonan does and hope he starts the relevant players in every case. Few things contain the Red Bull attack as well as not letting them turn over possession where they want to. They don’t have a lot of great passers, for one, but this is a team that breaks defenses down with pressure over passing.
2) Patience
And not just because the Red Bulls will work feverishly to make that seem like a terrible idea.
They also don’t have a history of creating a lot of chances – 15 is a great night, based on what I’ve seen, 10-11, with a few on-frame seems normal – so I want to see Cincy to think long-term when it comes to managing the game. What I’m saying is that I want to see them try to manage it. I think it’ll pay off and, barring actual mistakes, without much for risk.
3) I Like Vazquez as a Foil
Even without Sean Nealis, I think the Red Bull defense can handle most of what Brandon Vazquez does (they are rugged). With that in mind, I’m hoping to see Vazquez used more for hold-up play, i.e., a fulcrum for what he can get out of Luciano Acosta, Brenner and (I’m guessing) Alvaro Barreal. I think (or I hope) that that set of players – with the occasional deep run from a fullback or Nwobodo and whomever – can get a goal against that defense. Maybe even two.
Nothing left to do but kick the ball....
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