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| A brighter future. Without....all this. |
First, yes, I have once again tinkered with the format for this week’s Weakly. And, oh my holy God, how many fucking teams have midweek games tomorrow night? 20? Yeah, this is me tapping out on these weekly reviews. And I mean it this time. If anyone sees me post another one (except in the off-season), DM me and I’ll give you my address, so’s you can come over a slap me. Now, to this week’s round-up.
With a break (for most teams) coming in the first half of June (and anyone know why they’re pausing?), I decided to shorten the horizon and focus on just the next two, three games for all the teams around Major League Soccer. A two-week break feels like enough of a reset - e.g., teams could get key players back, coaching staffs can re-examine tactics that haven’t been working, make tweaks to one that have, etc. - to make that feel like a good spot for a breather/reassessment. With that in mind, I’ve listed all the games that each team in MLS has ahead between now and the end of May and threw my two cents at them for good measure. I’ll wrap up with a summary as well.
With that, it’s time for a rundown of the results. As always (and for the last time; pour one out), I’ve embedded links to The Motherships game summary in each final score and, to add a little more “why” to all the “what” below, I pulled some quotes from Matt Doyle’s Week 11 review in places where I thought he said something interesting. Now, a look back at the races….
Houston Dynamo FC 2-0 Nashville SC
[Spot Check: 1st - 20th, 45th -75th, plus box score]
Houston’s Adam Lundqvist walked off under a red mark at the 35th minute, but I didn’t notice the advantage any more than Gary Smith. Nashville teed up multiple lines on goal (e.g., C. J. Sapong, Daniel Lovitz, and Ethan Zubak) and missed them all. Houston, on the other hand, finished the shots they created and went 1-0 through Adalberto Carrasquilla nearly 20 minutes before Lundqvist’s ejection. More importantly, they looked coordinated and competent and Fafa Picault gave Nashville’s defense enough fits all on his own (just to note it, Walker Zimmerman didn’t start). In big picture terms, this result has me re-evaluating whether I’ve overrated Nashville over the first third of the season; a good, competitive team gets a point on the road against a middling team like Houston. Going the other way, this feels like an aberration for Houston, but also noted. Oh, and Doyle offered another theory on Nashville’s struggles:
“The fact that Loba looks nothing like a starting-caliber center forward (let alone a club-record DP signing) even when he gets more than a few minutes is a huge driver of that lack and, I imagine, of Smith’s frustration.”
Between Now and the End of May
Houston: v SEA, @ LAG, @ RSL, aka, nothing good: Anything north of three points will convince me I misjudged them.
Nashville: v MTL, v ATL, @ COL: Nashville’s played just two games at home. The odds scream that they’ll drop 2-3 points at Colorado, which makes those home games as close to must-win as mid-season MLS gets.
Vancouver Whitecaps 3-3 San Jose Earthquakes
[Spot Check: the second half and the box score]
Two things stood out: 1) this was an unusually polite game, e.g., both teams wanted to play more than wanted to not lose, and 2) Lucas Cavallini did a credible impression of a playmaker. The main man on the other side was - who else? - Jeremy Ebobisse; he called Cade Cowell to set up his first goal, then scored the ‘Quakes’ apparent winner after creating the pressure that made it possible. Cowell called an audible past Ebo’s advice on San Jose’s final goal, bypassing him for Cristian Espinoza, who then found Ebobisse for an even simpler tap-in (also, Espinoza has 5 assists this season). Still, the ‘Quakes remain…tender defensively (which, here, means league-worst with 26 allowed), hence giving up three goals, plus a 90th minute equalizer (pretty damn easy for Eric Godoy), against a team stuck at the bottom of the West and tied for second shittiest offense in MLS with Sporting KC (Chicago gets league-worst honors…and the crowd goes wild). So, yeah, taken together, I have no damn idea why I took the time for this one beyond the fact Portland plays San Jose next…
Between Now and the End of May
San Jose: v POR, v SKC, @ LAFC: Speaking as a confessed partisan, I’ll get pissy if Portland can’t crack San Jose’s defense at least twice, but I like their chances against SKC. LAFC, on the other hand…yeah, they’re at risk of sinking.
Vancouver: v FCD, @ CLT, @ SKC, v RSL (they have an oddball game in early June): I wouldn’t bet on the ‘Caps on any of those. Not even SKC.
With a break (for most teams) coming in the first half of June (and anyone know why they’re pausing?), I decided to shorten the horizon and focus on just the next two, three games for all the teams around Major League Soccer. A two-week break feels like enough of a reset - e.g., teams could get key players back, coaching staffs can re-examine tactics that haven’t been working, make tweaks to one that have, etc. - to make that feel like a good spot for a breather/reassessment. With that in mind, I’ve listed all the games that each team in MLS has ahead between now and the end of May and threw my two cents at them for good measure. I’ll wrap up with a summary as well.
With that, it’s time for a rundown of the results. As always (and for the last time; pour one out), I’ve embedded links to The Motherships game summary in each final score and, to add a little more “why” to all the “what” below, I pulled some quotes from Matt Doyle’s Week 11 review in places where I thought he said something interesting. Now, a look back at the races….
Houston Dynamo FC 2-0 Nashville SC
[Spot Check: 1st - 20th, 45th -75th, plus box score]
Houston’s Adam Lundqvist walked off under a red mark at the 35th minute, but I didn’t notice the advantage any more than Gary Smith. Nashville teed up multiple lines on goal (e.g., C. J. Sapong, Daniel Lovitz, and Ethan Zubak) and missed them all. Houston, on the other hand, finished the shots they created and went 1-0 through Adalberto Carrasquilla nearly 20 minutes before Lundqvist’s ejection. More importantly, they looked coordinated and competent and Fafa Picault gave Nashville’s defense enough fits all on his own (just to note it, Walker Zimmerman didn’t start). In big picture terms, this result has me re-evaluating whether I’ve overrated Nashville over the first third of the season; a good, competitive team gets a point on the road against a middling team like Houston. Going the other way, this feels like an aberration for Houston, but also noted. Oh, and Doyle offered another theory on Nashville’s struggles:
“The fact that Loba looks nothing like a starting-caliber center forward (let alone a club-record DP signing) even when he gets more than a few minutes is a huge driver of that lack and, I imagine, of Smith’s frustration.”
Between Now and the End of May
Houston: v SEA, @ LAG, @ RSL, aka, nothing good: Anything north of three points will convince me I misjudged them.
Nashville: v MTL, v ATL, @ COL: Nashville’s played just two games at home. The odds scream that they’ll drop 2-3 points at Colorado, which makes those home games as close to must-win as mid-season MLS gets.
Vancouver Whitecaps 3-3 San Jose Earthquakes
[Spot Check: the second half and the box score]
Two things stood out: 1) this was an unusually polite game, e.g., both teams wanted to play more than wanted to not lose, and 2) Lucas Cavallini did a credible impression of a playmaker. The main man on the other side was - who else? - Jeremy Ebobisse; he called Cade Cowell to set up his first goal, then scored the ‘Quakes’ apparent winner after creating the pressure that made it possible. Cowell called an audible past Ebo’s advice on San Jose’s final goal, bypassing him for Cristian Espinoza, who then found Ebobisse for an even simpler tap-in (also, Espinoza has 5 assists this season). Still, the ‘Quakes remain…tender defensively (which, here, means league-worst with 26 allowed), hence giving up three goals, plus a 90th minute equalizer (pretty damn easy for Eric Godoy), against a team stuck at the bottom of the West and tied for second shittiest offense in MLS with Sporting KC (Chicago gets league-worst honors…and the crowd goes wild). So, yeah, taken together, I have no damn idea why I took the time for this one beyond the fact Portland plays San Jose next…
Between Now and the End of May
San Jose: v POR, v SKC, @ LAFC: Speaking as a confessed partisan, I’ll get pissy if Portland can’t crack San Jose’s defense at least twice, but I like their chances against SKC. LAFC, on the other hand…yeah, they’re at risk of sinking.
Vancouver: v FCD, @ CLT, @ SKC, v RSL (they have an oddball game in early June): I wouldn’t bet on the ‘Caps on any of those. Not even SKC.
Los Angeles Galaxy 1-3 FC Dallas
[Spot Check: 1st - 30th, 50th -60th, 64th-75th, plus box score]
Dallas broke LA early and had at least two stellar chances to pile on at the beginning of the second, plus a couple more later. Jesus Ferreira put on a clinic for what a false 9 can do in transition and generally led Dallas in the fine arts of countering a team to shreds. The Galaxy lost this game before they found their feet and everything else laid out to Dallas’ advantage from there. Douglas Costa pulled one back and I spotted LA getting some chances in my dips into the game, but Dallas won the “fight” stats (e.g., tackles, duels) and nearly doubled LA on xG. By all indications I have on hand, this looked like what it was: a rout. I’m going to put this down as a bad day for a…good team(?) for the Galaxy and call it a legit warning shot from Dallas. For anyone who hasn’t noticed, Dallas leads MLS in goals against, and they average something like 0.72 goals against/game. And the 19 they’ve scored puts them in fancy company. LA, meanwhile, is leaning on their defense to a notable extent…
Between Now and the End of May
Los Angeles: @ MIN, v HOU, v ATX: Hey…the “good team/bad day” thing gets an immediate test. Anything less than four points and I’ve got questions.
Dallas: @ VAN, v MIN, @ ORL: Just noticed that Dallas has played more games at home than away - and this win made the their road record look less like a cold turd in the hand - but those are both gettable road games. Another good test.
Real Salt Lake 2-1 Austin FC
[Spot Check: 15th - 30th, 45th -60th, 80th-90th, plus box score]
Austin looked like the higher-percentage team until Daniel Pereira picked up a stupid, yet deserved red in the 47th minute (fwiw, I’d make the guy score on that play instead of handing him a gift, or even two) - but RSL made the man advantage count, particularly on the game winner, which came late/after time, altitude and one less body took their pound of flesh; as Brian Dunseth noted, Austin “closed shop” around the 83rd and tried to ride it out, but they compacted the defense so much that RSL’s Andrew Brody had all kinds of space to tee up the winner. It’s worth noting that RSL’s tactical shift to play Bobby Wood over the top paid off twice (this was how the red card happened) and full credit to them for making Austin pay for that red card timely (and nice step ‘n’ shoot by Maikel Chang). Austin, meanwhile, might have benefited from Zac MacMath getting too smart and it’s not crazy to argue that their respectable road form (2-2-1) get an boost from playing less than respectable teams (e.g., DC and Houston) for those road wins. Both teams remain in the upper reaches of the Western Conference, so…noted.
Between Now and the End of May
RSL: @MTL, v HOU, @ VAN: If that’s not four points or more…
Austin: @ LAFC, v ORL, @ LAG: I’m fully expecting a stall. If they get four points out of that, I'll buy in.
Chicago Fire FC 1-2 FC Cincinnati
In case the subtext doesn’t come out in my write-up on this…fuck me, was this depressing. I feel as much despair for Chicago as I feel glee for Cincy. Futility at the front, implosion at the back: Lord knows I know how much Cincy has suffered, but another bad season for Chicago - and it’s shaping into one - should push them into the realm of the curs’d. As noted in the post, Chicago’s attacking patterns didn’t make a lot of sense, which could go some way to explaining why they’re the only team in single digits on goals-for in 2022. Cincinnati, on the other hand, have been solid, with just four goals allowed since the middle of April - they’ll run down that season-opening slaughter at Austin some day - and they’ve ridden that to their deepest, good start in their MLS history. One more li’l fun fact about Cincy. From Doyle’s review:
“As per TruMedia via StatsPerform, Acosta’s getting more touches per game in the attacking half and more in the attacking third compared to last season.”
What having proper central midfielders does for a team…
Between Now and the End of May
Chicago: @ RBNY, @ NYC, @ TOR: The fact the Red Bulls haven’t won at home is the only bright spot in all of that.
Cincinnati: v NE, @ MTL: Not awful for a short-term run; Call three points good, four points great, and two points respectable…though I’d really dig a whole “Fortress Tickle” thing.
Portland Timbers 7-2 Sporting KC
I mean, sure, I could be keeping my guard higher than I should but the Timbers scored over 1/3 of their goals for the season in this game - which speaks directly to the state of SKC’s defense, which, for the record, ain’t league-worst, but it’s definitely running with the wrong crowd. Going the other way, the Timbers attack needed a lighting-bolt’s jolt worth of confidence and they got it. Sebastian Blanco earned every vote he got for MLS Player of the Week, but SKC lost this game when they gave up the first (and shockingly easy) goal; literally everything from that moment forward played to the Timbers’ strength. And, thus invited, the ran SKC straight the fuck over and backed up a couple times.
Between Now and the End of May
Portland: @ SJ, v PHI, @ MIA: I want to see five point out of that, no less…
SKC: v COL, @ SJ, v VAN: Colorado and Vancouver have exactly one draw from 10 games on the road between that at this point in the season. If SKC can’t get five points from this stretch, start looking for the fork.
Those are all the games I watched some or all of. Now, for the rest…
Toronto FC 0-1 Orlando City SC
So expected, I didn’t even look at it. But this quick note from Doyle matches what I’ve seen from Orlando:
“The Lions have truly been feast or famine this season.”
And they fart around with the ball far too much.
Between Now and the End of May
Toronto: @ DC, v CHI: That’s a decent chance for a recovery. Let’s see what they make of it.
Orlando: @ ATX, v FCD: Tough, but Orlando has a fair shot at four points or better.
Colorado Rapids 2-0 Los Angeles FC
The penalty call/kick situation got a little silly, but all the data points to a solid win for the Rapids. Another useful data point: this win pushed the Rapids’ home unbeaten streak to 22 games; provided you’re willing to call 2019 and 2021 “the past two seasons” (c’mon, 2020 was fucked up), Colorado posted an 18-7-9 record over that period and they’re already 4-0-2 at home this season.
Between Now and the End of May
Colorado: @ SKC, v SEA, v NSH: Calling that run at 4-6 points. Less than three would worry me.
LAFC: v ATX, @ CLB, v SJ: I’d be surprised by anything under 5 points.
Charlotte FC 0-2 Club du Foot Montreal [Ed. - Can’t wait Montreal’s name change…]
Charlotte had some chances - and Andre Shinyashiki looks like a nifty signing - but, based on what little I saw, Montreal made every shot on goal but one count and Kei Kamara did one hell of an impression of a spring chicken. Montreal looks like a plausible bet at the top of the East right now. Unbeaten in eight and on a three-game winning streak takes a team places.
Between Now and the End of May
Charlotte: v VAN, @ SEA: Feels like three points to me…
Montreal: @ NSH, v RSL, v CIN: They don’t need to get all the points, but, if they do…
New York City FC 2-0 Columbus Crew SC
Taty Castellanos twisted a dagger into the inevitable (but what was Columbus’ defense thinking, CALEB?), but I think “it could be 4-nil” (from the broadcast booth) sums it up nicely. The box score backs up what the highlights alluded to - e.g., NYC ran away with this one, while Columbus fired exactly zero shots on goal. As Doyle noted, there was a bit of structural fun in NYC’s game:
“I didn’t see anything bad at all. I think he’s the smartest football player on the pitch, he can play any position except for maybe goalkeeper. He organized the team, he can run and on the ball he is really good. That’s one positive of playing him in that role. When he plays in the No. 10 he comes down to get on the ball, so he is often in the position. We need one more player up front to create more and now when he is down there we have something in the No. 10 or even two eights.”
That’s Ronny Delia talking about playing Maxi Moralez deeper. Adds up for me.
Between Now and the End of May
NYCFC: @ DC, v CHI, @ MIN: If they roll through that - e.g., six points or better, which isn’t beyond them - get nervous; also, they’re not a great home team on a small sample (0-2-1 away).
Columbus: v LAFC, @ ATL: Another pretty good bet for a near-term stall…
Philadelphia Union 1-1 Red Bull New York
Didn’t look at this one. I see both as good, tough teams…and both have issues to work out - e.g., Philly has to start turning draws into wins (they have five of each) and Red Bull really needs that home win. For what it’s worth, Doyle had a note about how both team’s forwards fail to knock home what their respective teams set up. And he names names for Philly - e.g., Julian Carranza, Sergio Santos and Cory Burke. So, expect very little when you see those guys line up. I guess.
Between Now and the End of May
Philly: v MIA, @ POR, @ NE: I don’t even want to think about what happens when they play Portland, but that strike me as a four point stretch for my understanding of Philly.
RBNY: v CHI, @ MIA, v DC: I’d call that a fair chance of topping the East by the end of May.
Inter Miami CF 2-2 DC United
For anyone who’s interested, the goal the ref called back against Miami gives one reason why I hate the strict interpretation of the offside rule. Yeah, yeah, all hell would break loose… As for the game, both teams strike me as being of strictly local interest. Going the other way, both Leonardo Campana (Miami) and Taxiarchis Fountas (DC) play some great soccer. Good ideas, clean technique, etc.
Between Now and the End of May
Miami: @ PHI, v RBNY, v POR: They’re currently 2nd to last in the East. Don’t see that changing much, and/or for the better.
DC: v NYC, v TFC, @ RBNY: Toronto should give ‘em some relief, and the game against Red Bull should be a bruiser, but that’s still a tough run.
Atlanta United FC 2-2 New England Revolution
Thiago Almada beat Matt Turner on his second shot, but Adam Buksa scored a brace that should leave Atlanta’s defense blushing - Exhibit A and Exhibit B, with the defender simply losing him on the back-post being the most inexcusable between the two crimes. With Cincy facing the Revs next weekend, I tried my damnedest to get excited about this one, but…nope. I feel like I’ve got a good enough shorthand on both teams: both score goals and allow them above the league average. And all that implies…
Between Now and the End of May
Atlanta: @ NSH, v CLB: So…more of the same, then?
New England: @ CIN, v PHI: I can see them getting less three. Also, the Revs haven’t won on the road…
Seattle Sounders 3-1 Minnesota United FC
First, Stefan Frei has made a career of doing crazy shit. The bigger story is that Seattle took over the second half with, per the highlights, Cristian Roldan leading the charge. They got a bonus goal late, but what little sourcing I looked at calls this a good Sounders win. At this point it looks like an elevator up (for Seattle), elevator down (for Minnesota) in the standings. Also, a quick note from Doyle on Minnesota’s late stumbles:
“I’m not sure Heath, the manager, is the problem here. I think Heath’s work as a GM is a more serious issue (please pay no attention to the pair of DP forwards sitting on the bench). I’m not sure Heath, the manager, is the problem here. I think Heath’s work as a GM is a more serious issue (please pay no attention to the pair of DP forwards sitting on the bench).”
Between Now and the End of May
Seattle: @ HOU, @ COL, v CLT: The odds say they’ll ship at least two points at Colorado, but they should be good for four points or better out of that stretch, and they still have two games in hand against every team above them in the West, and three over Portland and RSL. Time will tell.
Minnesota: v LAG, @ FCD, v NYC: Certainly not easy, and Minnesota has mostly beaten shaky teams at home, so…yeah, I’d get nervous were I them, or their fans.
That’s it for results and notes. Now, to make a stab at mapping the future between today and the end of May.
Starting with the West (for that’s where I left it on my browser), I see Austin and Houston stalling as all the teams around them pick up points, and in roughly the present order - i.e., I expect LAFC and Dallas to remain in the top spots, while all of the Galaxy, RSL, Colorado, and Portland take more or less equal steps behind them. Nashville could join them, but I’m less confident on that, and I expect Minnesota to also stall, only where it hurts a little more. As I see it, Minnesota could wake up on June 1 to see that Seattle and San Jose have caught up - maybe even SKC.
Moving to the East, the sum of my notes tells me I think both Montreal will stick at or near the top, and that Red Bull has better chance than most of catching them, but neither Philly nor Orlando slip too far behind. And, if any of those teams stall, I expect NYCFC will catch and, more likely than not, Cincinnati. And I expect things to not look so different by the end of May than they do now - Atlanta, DC and Charlotte should gain about equal ground, while I expect Columbus to stick at 13. I’d give Toronto a better chance gaining ground than New England (wee touch of the homer on this, fwiw), but they’ll both still be down, while Miami and Chicago will lurk down a little deeper.
Making it sound like I'd organize all that into a table feels like a mistake, but that's what happens.
Assuming the standings at the end of May as sorted above, I expect a fair number of them to stick to the end of regular season, with most of them coming at the top and the bottom of the current standings. I expect the churn in the middle to continue to the end - and pretty damn wildly if the teams I expect to hold together - i.e., Montreal, Orlando, Philly, and both New York teams in the East, and mostly LAFC and Dallas in the West, but they’ve got a handful of teams in a pack behind to keep them honest.
I’ll be fun to see where this goes, even if I don’t plan on kicking it around in here. The previews will continue, as will the notes on Portland and Cincy, but this feature bows out with this one. Or, again, come slap me.
[Spot Check: 1st - 30th, 50th -60th, 64th-75th, plus box score]
Dallas broke LA early and had at least two stellar chances to pile on at the beginning of the second, plus a couple more later. Jesus Ferreira put on a clinic for what a false 9 can do in transition and generally led Dallas in the fine arts of countering a team to shreds. The Galaxy lost this game before they found their feet and everything else laid out to Dallas’ advantage from there. Douglas Costa pulled one back and I spotted LA getting some chances in my dips into the game, but Dallas won the “fight” stats (e.g., tackles, duels) and nearly doubled LA on xG. By all indications I have on hand, this looked like what it was: a rout. I’m going to put this down as a bad day for a…good team(?) for the Galaxy and call it a legit warning shot from Dallas. For anyone who hasn’t noticed, Dallas leads MLS in goals against, and they average something like 0.72 goals against/game. And the 19 they’ve scored puts them in fancy company. LA, meanwhile, is leaning on their defense to a notable extent…
Between Now and the End of May
Los Angeles: @ MIN, v HOU, v ATX: Hey…the “good team/bad day” thing gets an immediate test. Anything less than four points and I’ve got questions.
Dallas: @ VAN, v MIN, @ ORL: Just noticed that Dallas has played more games at home than away - and this win made the their road record look less like a cold turd in the hand - but those are both gettable road games. Another good test.
Real Salt Lake 2-1 Austin FC
[Spot Check: 15th - 30th, 45th -60th, 80th-90th, plus box score]
Austin looked like the higher-percentage team until Daniel Pereira picked up a stupid, yet deserved red in the 47th minute (fwiw, I’d make the guy score on that play instead of handing him a gift, or even two) - but RSL made the man advantage count, particularly on the game winner, which came late/after time, altitude and one less body took their pound of flesh; as Brian Dunseth noted, Austin “closed shop” around the 83rd and tried to ride it out, but they compacted the defense so much that RSL’s Andrew Brody had all kinds of space to tee up the winner. It’s worth noting that RSL’s tactical shift to play Bobby Wood over the top paid off twice (this was how the red card happened) and full credit to them for making Austin pay for that red card timely (and nice step ‘n’ shoot by Maikel Chang). Austin, meanwhile, might have benefited from Zac MacMath getting too smart and it’s not crazy to argue that their respectable road form (2-2-1) get an boost from playing less than respectable teams (e.g., DC and Houston) for those road wins. Both teams remain in the upper reaches of the Western Conference, so…noted.
Between Now and the End of May
RSL: @MTL, v HOU, @ VAN: If that’s not four points or more…
Austin: @ LAFC, v ORL, @ LAG: I’m fully expecting a stall. If they get four points out of that, I'll buy in.
Chicago Fire FC 1-2 FC Cincinnati
In case the subtext doesn’t come out in my write-up on this…fuck me, was this depressing. I feel as much despair for Chicago as I feel glee for Cincy. Futility at the front, implosion at the back: Lord knows I know how much Cincy has suffered, but another bad season for Chicago - and it’s shaping into one - should push them into the realm of the curs’d. As noted in the post, Chicago’s attacking patterns didn’t make a lot of sense, which could go some way to explaining why they’re the only team in single digits on goals-for in 2022. Cincinnati, on the other hand, have been solid, with just four goals allowed since the middle of April - they’ll run down that season-opening slaughter at Austin some day - and they’ve ridden that to their deepest, good start in their MLS history. One more li’l fun fact about Cincy. From Doyle’s review:
“As per TruMedia via StatsPerform, Acosta’s getting more touches per game in the attacking half and more in the attacking third compared to last season.”
What having proper central midfielders does for a team…
Between Now and the End of May
Chicago: @ RBNY, @ NYC, @ TOR: The fact the Red Bulls haven’t won at home is the only bright spot in all of that.
Cincinnati: v NE, @ MTL: Not awful for a short-term run; Call three points good, four points great, and two points respectable…though I’d really dig a whole “Fortress Tickle” thing.
Portland Timbers 7-2 Sporting KC
I mean, sure, I could be keeping my guard higher than I should but the Timbers scored over 1/3 of their goals for the season in this game - which speaks directly to the state of SKC’s defense, which, for the record, ain’t league-worst, but it’s definitely running with the wrong crowd. Going the other way, the Timbers attack needed a lighting-bolt’s jolt worth of confidence and they got it. Sebastian Blanco earned every vote he got for MLS Player of the Week, but SKC lost this game when they gave up the first (and shockingly easy) goal; literally everything from that moment forward played to the Timbers’ strength. And, thus invited, the ran SKC straight the fuck over and backed up a couple times.
Between Now and the End of May
Portland: @ SJ, v PHI, @ MIA: I want to see five point out of that, no less…
SKC: v COL, @ SJ, v VAN: Colorado and Vancouver have exactly one draw from 10 games on the road between that at this point in the season. If SKC can’t get five points from this stretch, start looking for the fork.
Those are all the games I watched some or all of. Now, for the rest…
Toronto FC 0-1 Orlando City SC
So expected, I didn’t even look at it. But this quick note from Doyle matches what I’ve seen from Orlando:
“The Lions have truly been feast or famine this season.”
And they fart around with the ball far too much.
Between Now and the End of May
Toronto: @ DC, v CHI: That’s a decent chance for a recovery. Let’s see what they make of it.
Orlando: @ ATX, v FCD: Tough, but Orlando has a fair shot at four points or better.
Colorado Rapids 2-0 Los Angeles FC
The penalty call/kick situation got a little silly, but all the data points to a solid win for the Rapids. Another useful data point: this win pushed the Rapids’ home unbeaten streak to 22 games; provided you’re willing to call 2019 and 2021 “the past two seasons” (c’mon, 2020 was fucked up), Colorado posted an 18-7-9 record over that period and they’re already 4-0-2 at home this season.
Between Now and the End of May
Colorado: @ SKC, v SEA, v NSH: Calling that run at 4-6 points. Less than three would worry me.
LAFC: v ATX, @ CLB, v SJ: I’d be surprised by anything under 5 points.
Charlotte FC 0-2 Club du Foot Montreal [Ed. - Can’t wait Montreal’s name change…]
Charlotte had some chances - and Andre Shinyashiki looks like a nifty signing - but, based on what little I saw, Montreal made every shot on goal but one count and Kei Kamara did one hell of an impression of a spring chicken. Montreal looks like a plausible bet at the top of the East right now. Unbeaten in eight and on a three-game winning streak takes a team places.
Between Now and the End of May
Charlotte: v VAN, @ SEA: Feels like three points to me…
Montreal: @ NSH, v RSL, v CIN: They don’t need to get all the points, but, if they do…
New York City FC 2-0 Columbus Crew SC
Taty Castellanos twisted a dagger into the inevitable (but what was Columbus’ defense thinking, CALEB?), but I think “it could be 4-nil” (from the broadcast booth) sums it up nicely. The box score backs up what the highlights alluded to - e.g., NYC ran away with this one, while Columbus fired exactly zero shots on goal. As Doyle noted, there was a bit of structural fun in NYC’s game:
“I didn’t see anything bad at all. I think he’s the smartest football player on the pitch, he can play any position except for maybe goalkeeper. He organized the team, he can run and on the ball he is really good. That’s one positive of playing him in that role. When he plays in the No. 10 he comes down to get on the ball, so he is often in the position. We need one more player up front to create more and now when he is down there we have something in the No. 10 or even two eights.”
That’s Ronny Delia talking about playing Maxi Moralez deeper. Adds up for me.
Between Now and the End of May
NYCFC: @ DC, v CHI, @ MIN: If they roll through that - e.g., six points or better, which isn’t beyond them - get nervous; also, they’re not a great home team on a small sample (0-2-1 away).
Columbus: v LAFC, @ ATL: Another pretty good bet for a near-term stall…
Philadelphia Union 1-1 Red Bull New York
Didn’t look at this one. I see both as good, tough teams…and both have issues to work out - e.g., Philly has to start turning draws into wins (they have five of each) and Red Bull really needs that home win. For what it’s worth, Doyle had a note about how both team’s forwards fail to knock home what their respective teams set up. And he names names for Philly - e.g., Julian Carranza, Sergio Santos and Cory Burke. So, expect very little when you see those guys line up. I guess.
Between Now and the End of May
Philly: v MIA, @ POR, @ NE: I don’t even want to think about what happens when they play Portland, but that strike me as a four point stretch for my understanding of Philly.
RBNY: v CHI, @ MIA, v DC: I’d call that a fair chance of topping the East by the end of May.
Inter Miami CF 2-2 DC United
For anyone who’s interested, the goal the ref called back against Miami gives one reason why I hate the strict interpretation of the offside rule. Yeah, yeah, all hell would break loose… As for the game, both teams strike me as being of strictly local interest. Going the other way, both Leonardo Campana (Miami) and Taxiarchis Fountas (DC) play some great soccer. Good ideas, clean technique, etc.
Between Now and the End of May
Miami: @ PHI, v RBNY, v POR: They’re currently 2nd to last in the East. Don’t see that changing much, and/or for the better.
DC: v NYC, v TFC, @ RBNY: Toronto should give ‘em some relief, and the game against Red Bull should be a bruiser, but that’s still a tough run.
Atlanta United FC 2-2 New England Revolution
Thiago Almada beat Matt Turner on his second shot, but Adam Buksa scored a brace that should leave Atlanta’s defense blushing - Exhibit A and Exhibit B, with the defender simply losing him on the back-post being the most inexcusable between the two crimes. With Cincy facing the Revs next weekend, I tried my damnedest to get excited about this one, but…nope. I feel like I’ve got a good enough shorthand on both teams: both score goals and allow them above the league average. And all that implies…
Between Now and the End of May
Atlanta: @ NSH, v CLB: So…more of the same, then?
New England: @ CIN, v PHI: I can see them getting less three. Also, the Revs haven’t won on the road…
Seattle Sounders 3-1 Minnesota United FC
First, Stefan Frei has made a career of doing crazy shit. The bigger story is that Seattle took over the second half with, per the highlights, Cristian Roldan leading the charge. They got a bonus goal late, but what little sourcing I looked at calls this a good Sounders win. At this point it looks like an elevator up (for Seattle), elevator down (for Minnesota) in the standings. Also, a quick note from Doyle on Minnesota’s late stumbles:
“I’m not sure Heath, the manager, is the problem here. I think Heath’s work as a GM is a more serious issue (please pay no attention to the pair of DP forwards sitting on the bench). I’m not sure Heath, the manager, is the problem here. I think Heath’s work as a GM is a more serious issue (please pay no attention to the pair of DP forwards sitting on the bench).”
Between Now and the End of May
Seattle: @ HOU, @ COL, v CLT: The odds say they’ll ship at least two points at Colorado, but they should be good for four points or better out of that stretch, and they still have two games in hand against every team above them in the West, and three over Portland and RSL. Time will tell.
Minnesota: v LAG, @ FCD, v NYC: Certainly not easy, and Minnesota has mostly beaten shaky teams at home, so…yeah, I’d get nervous were I them, or their fans.
That’s it for results and notes. Now, to make a stab at mapping the future between today and the end of May.
Starting with the West (for that’s where I left it on my browser), I see Austin and Houston stalling as all the teams around them pick up points, and in roughly the present order - i.e., I expect LAFC and Dallas to remain in the top spots, while all of the Galaxy, RSL, Colorado, and Portland take more or less equal steps behind them. Nashville could join them, but I’m less confident on that, and I expect Minnesota to also stall, only where it hurts a little more. As I see it, Minnesota could wake up on June 1 to see that Seattle and San Jose have caught up - maybe even SKC.
Moving to the East, the sum of my notes tells me I think both Montreal will stick at or near the top, and that Red Bull has better chance than most of catching them, but neither Philly nor Orlando slip too far behind. And, if any of those teams stall, I expect NYCFC will catch and, more likely than not, Cincinnati. And I expect things to not look so different by the end of May than they do now - Atlanta, DC and Charlotte should gain about equal ground, while I expect Columbus to stick at 13. I’d give Toronto a better chance gaining ground than New England (wee touch of the homer on this, fwiw), but they’ll both still be down, while Miami and Chicago will lurk down a little deeper.
Making it sound like I'd organize all that into a table feels like a mistake, but that's what happens.
Assuming the standings at the end of May as sorted above, I expect a fair number of them to stick to the end of regular season, with most of them coming at the top and the bottom of the current standings. I expect the churn in the middle to continue to the end - and pretty damn wildly if the teams I expect to hold together - i.e., Montreal, Orlando, Philly, and both New York teams in the East, and mostly LAFC and Dallas in the West, but they’ve got a handful of teams in a pack behind to keep them honest.
I’ll be fun to see where this goes, even if I don’t plan on kicking it around in here. The previews will continue, as will the notes on Portland and Cincy, but this feature bows out with this one. Or, again, come slap me.
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