 |
| Eh.... |
Also, yes, I know this is late to the point of pointlessness, but I made a commitment and, no matter how many times I disavowed the same (so, so many; so many), I will walk this plank until I run out of wood.
And, naturally, I’ve tinkered with the format…speaking for myself, I’d keep reading these things for that running pratfall. Rather than lead with all the results and then pick them apart, I’m just going to walk through them one at a time. I’ll start with the games I spot-checked, wrap up on the games I ignored and slip whatever (additional) comments I have on the two teams I follow (again, FC Cincinnati and the Portland Timbers) in between the two. Also, I’m ditching the Heaven, Purgatory, Hell arrangement - which didn’t seem to, y’know, pop! - for another organizing concept: Is It Safe? That’s part homage to the famous scene from Marathon Man, and part a reference to the current standings in Major League Soccer’s Eastern and Western Conferences. The question I’ll try to answer/divine is whether the current standings in each look like they’ll hold.
I’ll get to that fool’s errand at the end of all this. Before that, let’s talk results. Briefly. I’d encourage people who want more details, more drilling down on tactics, more data to Matt Doyle’s Armchair Analyst weekly review (which I crib below; see italics), or, better to the independents writing about this stuff in your local and/or chosen soccer market. The main thing I want my notes to communicate is whether or not people should buy the result. Here goes…and, as always, links to The Mothership’s data caves are embedded in each final score.
Club du Foot Montreal 4-1 Orlando City SC (And Montreal’s rebranding again…right?)
[Based on the following segments of the game: 10th to 25th, 37th to 45th+, 45th to 55th, 66th to 72nd, 77th to 84th; also the box score.]
Oh, yeah. Montreal kicked the shit out of Orlando. They exploited them (4th goal) and broke them down (2nd); there was simply never a mount in which Montreal wasn’t the subject and Orlando the object. One thing I noted was the way Montreal defended: a combination of immediate and close whenever the ball goes into the attacking third; call it man-marking, only without the dogma and only in certain parts of the field. As for Orlando, they have this way of announcing they’ve run out of ideas like few teams in MLS (…wait, Portland?), and so it went. Getting back to Montreal, they’re on a hell of a run: 15 points from the last 21 games, and most of those results signal quality. I feel fine saying Montreal has arrived - i.e., I don’t really look at their schedule, because I can see them getting points out of any game - but I’m not convinced they’ll stay there. On the plus side, Kamal Miller has looked man of the match good in every stretch I’ve watched this season. On the downside, and this falls under speculation, I can’t get myself to see a front three of Romell Quioto, Djordje Mihailovic and Joaquin Torres carrying them through a full season, then the playoffs. They’ll be interesting to watch, regardless.
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| Good for lady pants, bad for a defense. |
[The Mothership posted the MLS in 15 for this one, plus the box score.]
Miles Robinson limping off broken dominated the headlines, but I’d call the official demise of Chicago’s reputation as a good defensive team a solid sub-head. I’ve watched several stretches of Atlanta and seen them connect enough moves to know they can do it; the product often falls short of a real opportunity, but the underlying mechanics work and the engine’s turning over. Chicago provided a…tertiary assist on both on at least two of Atlanta’s/Ronaldo Cisneros’ goals in the form of a pocket in their defense that left Cisneros at the top-center of the 18, with a clear line on goal and a broken backline to keep him onside. The time between the 10th and 20th minute and Gabriel Slonina looking good as advertised aside, I didn’t get a lot of positives out of Chicago. Their next four games - v CIN, @ RBNY, @NYC, @ TFC - look just as hard, if not harder than Atlanta, but it’s also hard to think of a team I wouldn’t bet for against Chicago. Speaking of Atlanta, their games between today and the June break - v NE, @ NSH, v CLB - feel like they should give a good read on where Atlanta will end in the standings. To twist the knife a little re the visitors:
“As for Chicago, all the good vibes from their solid defensive start have disappeared. They are 0W-4L-2D in their past six games, have scored just twice in that span, and have shipped nine goals in losing the past three.”
New England Revolution 2-2 Columbus Crew SC
I didn’t fully appreciate just how loudly New England’s defense sucked until this game made me look into it. Their sixteen goals allowed puts them in the…company of teams like Vancouver, Miami, Toronto, SKC and Cincinnati. On the plus side, the Revs scored two pretty goals, Carles Gil played really damn well, I finally saw Sebastian Lletget do something, etc. Going the other way, it looks like a lot of freelancing from them, which feels very un-Bruce Arena; it looks sloppy and a little…addled, I guess. They still have moments in them, but it’ll take a combination of time and results before I assume the Revs will win any game. And Columbus benefited from those mistakes, sure, but they look solid, well-organized, and Derrick Etienne, Jr.’s second life has given them free money in the attack. They’ve got a bit of a shit-stack ahead of them - @ NYC, v LAFC, @ ATL - and that could hold them below the playoff line, they still look playoff-competitive to me. Now, a kicker on New England:
“I understand that every manager has a preferred formation and principles of play, but at some point you’ve got to err on the side of playing to your roster’s strengths. Arena has not yet done that.”
FC Dallas 2-0 Seattle Sounders
Honestly, I checked out on this game once I realized that Seattle clearly allowed nearly all their starters some time to recover from the CCL champagne. Good for Dallas, of course, and they look credible and all, but Seattle’s rotated-to-spinning line-up scrambles the signals quite a bit on this one. Dallas has an interesting schedule between now and the June break - @ LAG, @ VAN, v MIN, @ ORL - aka, middling with a twist from the road games. If they get anything above five points out of that, I’d put money on them reaching the playoffs. The gap in the West is wider than the East, and Dallas is well on the right side of it. As for Seattle, it has not been good in the league lately - three straight losses, all games you’d expect them to dunk on when all are present, rested, hydrated, etc. - but they’ve got games in hand and fewer distractions, so…
DC United 2-0 Houston Dynamo FC
[Based on the following segments of the game: 30th to 45th, 45th to 55th, 80th to 90th; also the box score.]
I had a tidy note on this one: “I don’t know how good DC are, but they’re better than Houston; big eye-test edge.” I’ve seen really impressive understanding between Julian Gressel and Taxi Fountas - and there’s more attacking talent in this DC side than I think we’ve seen in a while - and I think they’ve got good pieces (e.g., Russell Canouse, Donovan Pines, Steve Birnbaum…some of Bill Hamid) to back that up, and they’re close, but….
As for Houston, the look like a team reverting to type. Another season of declaring “present,” ahoy!
Los Angeles FC 2-2 Philadelphia Union
[Based on the following segments of the game: 1st to 12th, 45th to 70th+, 75th to 85th; also the box score.]
I’d originally intended to skip this game on the grounds that I understood both teams to be actually good - i.e., a reasonable bet to win any game - but, because both teams 1) attack in really interesting ways, and 2) are good, I’m glad I took the time. Philly play direct like it’s a lifestyle choice; they fire the ball forward, thereby challenging the receiving player every bit as much as the defense to handle it. They play that system remarkably well, and Julian Carranza continues to back up his reviews, but a lot of it follows from a sturdy structure. To their credit, LAFC bent the structure twice, which brings up how they play; it really is back to the old days of compressing the defense, then probing it till it breaks. Moreover, they won every statistical duel except duels, tackles, saves, clearances, fouls and yellow cards, and most of the positive ones by a wide edge. Again, I don’t really pay attention to the schedule ahead for the good teams. Think of it as buying a stock and holding it.
I pinched a couple notes on this one. First up, Philly:
“There is nothing in the boxscore from this for Flach. Hell, it barely shows up in the advanced stats – you have to dig through Second Spectrum’s tracking data to sift through off-ball attacking runs. And there, lo and behold: the Union are recording the highest number of off-ball attacking runs per transition opportunity that’s ever been recorded in this league.”
Now, LAFC:
“They are still among the very best teams in the league in all the stuff they’ve been excellent at for years, like xG generated via pressure, xG generated via long, possession-intensive passing sequences, penalty area entries, etc.”
Red Bull New York 1-1 Portland Timbers
My extended notes on this game mainly praised the Red Bull system and how well they’ve used it, only with a longer side dish of how well the Timbers’ pushed back against it. The Red Bulls look fine so far, and I expect them to get at least half of the twelve points (@ PHI, v CHI, @ MIA, v DC) between now and the June Break, but this felt like an eye-opener for Portland. Based on what I’ve seen so far, they’re going to have to out-compete teams as opposed to out-play them. Get that down first, then try some magic…and hope it comes back.
Minnesota United FC 0-1 FC Cincinnati
On track for their best-ever season in MLS, Cincinnati finally arrived at the basic standard for a professional soccer team: they have a good, solid shape and can hold it when they attack. It took them beating Minnesota to get me all the way to "buy." They’ve got some tough ones ahead - @ CHI, v NE, @ MTL - but it no longer feels delusion and/or sad to say Cincy can get points out of those games. If I’m being honest, three points would make me feel fine, and anything more than that would get me dreaming. As for Minnesota, the result puts a dent in their revival and the reason behind it (Reynoso). They’ve got four courses of tough sledding ahead - @ SEA, v LAG, @ FCD, v NYC - and that’s a lot, but it’d take a flaming disaster through that to keep me from seeing them as playoff competitive. Whoops and shit, my extended notes on this one. And it really was a damned poised performance by Cincy. Also, this on their primary playmaker, Luciano Acosta:
“Lucho leads MLS in expected assists by a freaking mile.”
And now, real quickly (as in, with virtually no reference to anything, just riffing), the rest…
Charlotte FC 1-0 Inter Miami CF
Particulars notwithstanding, more or less what I expected. And how much do the details matter at that point? Miami has three of the next four at home - where they’ve been all right - but it’s not the easiest line-up (v DC, v RBNY, v POR, with @ PHI slipped in between) and they’ve got a hole to climb out of. Charlotte, meanwhile, will keep on keeping on.
New York City FC 0-0 Sporting Kansas City
That this counts as a surprise goes without saying, but I think I read something about Vermes bricking up his defense and playing for a point. It worked. And I’m dreading this upcoming weekend. Might even skip it…
At their best, NYC would plow through the schedule ahead - v CLB, @ DC, v CHI @ MIN - but I guess that’s the question.
San Jose Earthquakes 1-0 Colorado Rapids
San Jose was at home, Colorado couldn’t score on a dare, next….
Wait, I’ve got a quote from their ‘keeper J. C. Marcinkowski, a theory on why the 'Quakes may not be doomed:
“A lot of the way that we pressure and the way that we defend can be credited to them for teaching us over the past three and a half, four years. But, with [Alex] Covelo’s system, I think it’s a little more structured, a little more less-is-more approach, I would say. I think this is a good indication of how we’ll play moving forward.”
In all seriousness, the Rapids have a stretch of home games ahead - v LAFC, v SEA, v NSH, with @ SKC slipped in the middle - and they’re safer home team than Miami, so I’d call what they do over that stretch a good indicator of where they are. And I see San Jose as another team who will keep playing their schedule because it’s there.
Vancouver Whitecaps FC 1-0 Toronto FC
By most indications, neither of these teams are very good. And Vancouver was at home.
Nashville SC 2-0 Real Salt Lake
That final score beats all of the eyeball test, but this is the only game I actually regret not looking into. RSL feels like they’ve reverted to a familiar role - i.e., the team that can surprise anybody(!); related, I think Nashville hauled them back for a reason. More on the game/Nashville:
“But the larger point stands, in that this one played out the way almost everyone would’ve predicted. Nashville were in charge from the jump, never let RSL get into the game, and it was only a matter of whether or not they could bang down the door in their typical ways.”
Austin FC 0-1 Los Angeles Galaxy
Again, seems predictable. I still don’t buy Austin - and don’t think I’m alone in that - but I’m certainly not writing them out of the playoffs either. The Galaxy, meanwhile, strike me as one those dourly competent teams that haunt every league…more on that:
“Even so, they are 4W-1L-1D in their last six games, a stretch that includes wins over each of the top two teams in the Shield race. It says something about how far LA have come defensively that they’re taking points even when they’re leaving goals on the table.”
And that’s the week. At least two days short, stale AF, but present and raising his hand. By way of wrapping up, here’s new ranking frame, Is It Safe?
Western Conference, Current Standings - Nope.
[Ed. - The link’s above, it’ll open on a separate page…look, I’m not typing it out.]
I feel good about LAFC, FC Dallas and the LA Galaxy (again, dourly) hanging on in playoff spots, and I feel like Nashville’s a good bet to join them, but the rest feels pretty damn wide open. I think everyone agrees Seattle will climb, but a crapshoot describes the rest nicely - and that’s just one reason why I wouldn’t write Austin out of the playoffs. If you tick through the teams in the West who look good (already listed) and doomed (Vancouver), you’ve got a number of perennials and/or recent Conference champions - e.g., Colorado, Minnesota, Portland, SKC - punching below their weight, and that makes space for the rest - e.g., RSL, San Jose, and, if you’re really stretching, Houston - to push them out.
Eastern Conference, Current Standings - Closer.
Trust me, I pinch myself every time I watch Cincinnati these days. I don’t know if they’re better than all the teams below them, but that doesn’t change the fact they’re above them. In the big picture, I think the bottom half of the East - i.e., the teams presently out of the playoffs, i.e. (from the bottom), Chicago, Miami, Toronto, New England, DC, Columbus and Charlotte - look like plausible bets to stay there (hold that thought), while the teams above, i.e., Philly, RBNY, Montreal, Orlando, Cincy, NYC and Atlanta - look like plausible bets to stand on their backs.
At the same time, I expect NYC to climb, while also expecting…honestly, an impressive range of those teams to bounce around in a middle space between Philly, RBNY, NYC and Montreal at the top and Chicago, Miami, Toronto and, ultimately, Charlotte at the bottom. In other words, that’s Orlando, Cincy, Atlanta, Columbus, DC and, remarkably, the Revs churning around the middle. At least for now…
Until next week’s Weakly, which will be earlier, PROMISE!
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