FC Cincinnati Preview: Bring Your Running Shoes, the Good Ones

Lace 'em tight, stay frosty.

Club du Foot Montreal have a new crest (eh), and a solid run over the past 10 games, going 6-2-2 and against reasonably spry opposition. They lost a step on the back end of the 10, going 3-2-0; fwiw, they got home wins over Atlanta and Orlando, plus one on the road over Charlotte, but they lost away to Nashville…and then at home last weekend against Real Salt Lake. And one can make a reasonable argument that RSL outplayed them. So…what looms largest, a 6-2-2 recent record or the one oddball loss that goes against it?

I’ll start with this: Montreal doesn’t run the tightest ship at the back. They’ve allowed at least one goal in every game except that win over Charlotte. They’ve also scored above the league average (which I put at 17.5; Montreal has 24), which makes me think FC Cincinnati has another track meet on tap for this weekend. That’s not unusual for these Montreal v Cincy: they played to a 4-3 game with Cincinnati at home and on the losing end, which repeated another game in 2021, when they played the same venue (right?) with the Orange and Blue coming out at the wrong end of a 5-4 final score.

That’s the past, because a couple things have changed since even that last meeting – e.g., the arrival of Obinna Nwodobo and a fully-functioning midfield (with Junior Moreno). So, first question: can Cincinnati’s overall defensive shape/personnel keep Montreal to one or zero goals? I lean toward yes, but with some caveats and caution signs. Montreal has some sharp players working the width/channels – e.g., Djordje Mihailovic (assuming he’s not gone yet…The Mothership is behind on the availability info) and Lassi Lappalainen on their left and Alistair Johnston and Joaquin Torres on the right – and they spread the field nicely and play into the internal channels or to the far post according to the space they have. It’s a decent system, even if RSL bottled it up pretty nicely.

Against that methodology, the way Cincy plays its fullbacks – I assume Pat Noonan goes Alvas Powell and John Nelson again – looms larger than normal (also relevant: I think I say this every time). I hope they go a little conservative, at least on one side, and rely more on the fullbacks playing into Moreno and Nwobodo then out to Dominique Badji and (again, I assume) Alvaro Barreal, respectively, to work the ball up the field. I don’t mind either fullback taking chances once the ball is high, but hope they don’t hand Montreal any gifts, especially breaks behind the fullbacks inside Cincy's half. It’s not that Montreal can’t push up the gut, and Victor Wanyama does make his share of late runs to the top of the area, but he mostly seems to sit deep and coordinate, with the forward momentum happening on either side of him. That said, Montreal can change that up by calling in Kei Kamara, King of Journeymen, to act as a battering ram later in the game; that’s against Romell Quioto, who strikes me as just another guy they play into space.

Something else I’d like to see Noonan try: setting up two lines of engagement. The first inside Montreal half to pressure them as they play out of the back and, when that breaks, to retreat inside Cincy’s defensive half and chase everything that crosses the center-stripe. So, that's a press early, followed by a combination of keeping shape and actively denying Montreal’s skill players much time on the ball (and Kamal Miller counts as one; he steps up from the right often and well), disrupting their attacking moves before they start, etc. That’s more or less how RSL managed them and, at least last weekend, it got under Montreal’s skin.

As for the attacking side, Montreal’s thing about spreading the field happens at the back as well. That opened gaps for RSL over and over, and I think the same will work for Cincy; I’d flag their second goal as a model – i.e., just picture Brandon Vazquez or Badji stepping inside Montreal’s high defensive line (assuming they go with it again) and playing in Acosta or Barreal. Montreal seems to leave gaps generally – especially when they spread out that back three (Rudy Camacho, Miller and…whoever they line up on the left side on Saturday), so transition ought to be Cincy’s friend.

All in all, I’d like Cincy’s chances better if they hadn’t lost two track meets over the past two seasons. Honestly, I think they’d be better off not getting in one at all and trying to pinch the game’s lone goal – also not crazy, seeing as Montreal and Cincy have played close ones in the past – but my faith in that coming off dies in the face of a “there will be goals” vibe for the second consecutive match day. And I think Cincy can win a game like that – or at least that they’re better suited for it than they were the last time around – even as I’m seeing a wide-open game bite them on the ass.

We’ll see on Saturday (or Sunday, in my case; have to delay this one).