Portland Timbers Preview: A Trip to the Pastel Kingdom

More menacing than previously...fwiw.

I don’t have any great insights into Inter Miami CF’s system, how they line up, etc. I have, however, watched them a couple times over the past couple weeks – a goal-less road draw at the Philadelphia Union and a 2-0 home win over Red Bull New York – and my main thought after both results is this: Miami probably isn’t as bad as you think, Portland Timbers fans, so I wouldn’t take three points as a given. In fact, if I had to put money on anything, it’d be a draw.

Chalk my lukewarm take on the Timbers’ chances down to Miami’s improved defensive record – i.e., after allowing 15 goals over their first six games, they’ve allowed just six since then and in sufficiently challenging settings (v ATL, @ NE, @ CLT, v DC, @ PHI, v RBNY; their record through that went WLLTTW, fwiw) to make me trust it. On the one hand, sure, it bears acknowledging that neither Red Bull nor Philly rank among the league’s attacking powerhouses, but I also doubt anyone had Miami picking up four points from those two games, and yet here we are. It also bears noting that the Timbers have scored as many goals in 2022 as the Red Bulls and two more than Philly, so that’s one more data point to run past your opinion of the Timbers attack (I know where mine is, but you do you).

Because I don’t really know what The Underlying Numbers say (and I’m not even sure where to look at this point) and I keep forgetting to look at the power rankings (eh), I don’t know whether the cognoscenti see Miami is under- or overachieving. All I have is their present record – 4-6-3 overall, with a middling 3-2-2 at home – plus those past two games to judge them. And what I saw there was a sturdy, organized defense – more significantly, one that managed both RBNY’s and Philly’s generally energetic approaches to defense. Moreover, the box score matches my eye-test for the Red Bull game: Miami looked the more rugged defensive team, something you don’t see a lot against RBNY. That Miami played through the pressure well in both games makes me lean toward discounting Portland’s chances to frazzle them.

On the brighter side, playing away should give the Timbers several chances to play in the only way their attack actually seems to function – i.e., in transition - and that’s nice, beats the alternative we’ve collectively endured in all venues and against all teams outside of Sporting KC at home, and so on…but what would surprise you more at this point: the Timbers running up the score (which, here, means three or more goals) or the Timbers not scoring at all?

I just sat through Jake Zivin’s preview (eh) and, to expand on one point a little, he’s right to warn about Miami’s new forward, Leo Campana (and did not know he’s that young), because on top of having sound technical skills, plus six goals on the season, he carries a pretty big frame. Between throwing himself around and combining with others – he seems to have a good rapport with Ariel Lassiter, for one – he could make the Timbers already-sweaty defense shed a couple more beads. Going the other way, and fun fact: Campana has scored nearly half of Miami’s goals since arriving, of which, good for him, bad for them; because the rest of team doesn’t score easily (and Campana missed a sitter against RBNY, and because their attacking patterns don’t strike me as next-level), that could buy the Timbers attack some time to get into the game. I think word’s got around that Gonzalo Higuain hasn’t exactly lit up MLS this season, and he could have stepped to the wrong side of past it, but that doesn’t take away his still-present ability…just his ability to keep up with the youngs.

As for Portland, what can I say about them besides, play better? Please. I’d like to see them rest Eryk Williamson, for what it’s worth, and let him use the next couple weeks to get all the way back, but, absent updates (or low-hanging ones), I expect Gio to trot out the some similar version of what the Timbers have trotted out all season. You’ve got questions all over – e.g., does he start Nathan Fogaca or Jaroslaw Niezgoda (I’d go with Fogaca)? Who starts at right back (and does it matter)? Claudio Bravo can start, right? etc. – but…yeah, all I can really think to write came at the beginning. The Timbers have to start executing, playing cleaner and thinking much, much harder (and perhaps for the first time) about attacking patterns, things like how they get the ball to Miami’s attacking third and to do something smarter than wander aimlessly while one Timber loiters on the wing struggling to find an option to actually move things to dangerous places.

Overall, if I had to talk a Timbers fan out of feeling cocky about waltzing into Pastel Country (aka, Miami) and spinning away with three easy points, I’d direct their attention to the fact that Miami comes into this game with as any points as Portland. Something else to consider, maybe this isn’t an issue of how good or bad Miami is than one of how far the Timbers will go down to meet them. After that…yeah, beyond seeing Sebastian Blanco as the likeliest X-Factor – and I very much doubt I’m alone in that – I don’t have anything else to add.

Not that it’s of any particular interest or concern to anybody, I have to miss this one. If you read between the lines in the above, I’m not overly concerned about missing much, but that doesn’t mean I won’t get pissy if I do. That’s it from this particular channel to the second week of June. Till then…and will I watch the U.S. Men’s National Team between here and there?