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| Something to avoid in both soccer and life. |
I’ve been eyeing Sunday’s game against the Philadelphia Union as the likeliest brick-wall in what, until the Portland Timbers hacked up a lung down in San Jose, looked like a soft landing going into the June break. (And this is an international break, right?) Then again, Philly hasn’t exactly kept up expectations. Since bolting ahead in the Supporters’ Shield race early in the season, the Union haven’t won a game in weeks. Moreover, some of the points they’ve dropped - e.g., all three points away to Toronto (and that damn game sold me on TFC) plus two more at home just a couple nights ago against…fucking Miami?
I just sat through two good chunks of the Philly v Miami game - the first 30 minutes, then the 65th to…around the 80th - and, for what it’s worth, that experience doesn’t match the other spot-checks I’ve done on Philly games. They typically play vertically, even to a fault, but the Union either had an off-day, or Miami upset Plan A. They couldn’t start Julian Carranza, their second highest scorer and all-round second most effective player (four goals, three assists), due to the loan arrangement with Miami, so that’s one hole, and they started leggy, loping (yet generally competent) defender, Jack Elliott, as the defensive midfield in the absence of the regular, Jose Martinez (a player I don’t know well, btw). That might have pulled a leg out from Plan A, but, for all the forward movements that petered out or died on both sides of the center-stripe (so many), Philly still created plenty of chances, firing 20 shots, eight of them on goal. Against that, I saw most of those shots (the highlights include, well, the highlights of those), but it didn’t change the overall, real-time impression of a stymied, ambling Union attack.
To turn to some things that went well for Philly, Daniel Gazdag fired some menacing shots, and they’ve got a pair of solid shuttlers in Leon Flach and Alejandro Bedoya (who apparently speaks five languages), and they get solid overlapping options out of Kai Wagner and Nathan Harriel and/or Olivier Mbaizo (depending on who starts). Finally, to defend Philly’s…reasonably-maligned forwards, Sergio Santos and Cory Burke, both made good runs - e.g., see Santos’ run on one of Gazdag’s better shots (coulda had a tap-in) - and, even if either of them only puts away one chance in 15, the risk to Portland of allowing them 15 chances is real.
To flip in the other direction, even with a handful of other defenses in touch, the Union are the only team left standing on single digits for goals allowed. They’ve allowed just five goals over their past nine games, and three of those games came against your livelier attacking teams - e.g., Montreal, Red Bull and LAFC. Based on goals scored alone, Portland keeps up with all three of those teams, but anyone with a working memory knows that seven of the Timbers’ goals on the season came in a wheels-off blowout over Kansas City. Moreover, all those teams score steadily, whereas Portland has been shut-out three times and limited to one goal on six other occasions - i.e., a 0.67 goals-for average across most games. So, the question is, how does a putzing Timbers attack get past that, plus Andre Blake as a back-stop?
Philly usually line up in a 4-4-2 diamond, and they defended in a 4-3-3, or at least they did against Miami, an arrangement that should leave pockets out wide near the top of the Timbers attacking third. That spells potential for Portland getting something out of early crosses - and that sounds like a job for Dairon Asprilla (especially if neither Jaroslaw Niezgoda or Felipe Mora still can’t go) - but the Timbers will have to collectively navigate something even trickier before they get to that point: the Union press. It’s not pure energy-drink blitz, but they do tend to get players to the ball quickly and the line of engagement high, and that should make Timbers fans antsy, given how effectively San Jose (again, that was San Jose) bottled up Portland’s transition in one cul-de-sac after another. Getting through that, especially on Providence Park’s smaller, slicker field amounts to a necessary first step for getting anything more than one point out of Sunday’s game.
One last thought, and it’s one that very much carries over from Wednesday’s loss at San Jose: they will need to bring the game to Philly and on a couple levels. First, they need to meet whatever the Union brings for intensity and eventually gain the upper hand. That this has been an issue goes without saying (some sleepy motherfuckers out there). Second, because the Timbers are playing at home, the Union will have the luxury of absorbing and hitting back on the counter - and that brings in another detail from watching Philly v Miami. I can’t recall a time when the Union had every player behind the ball; moreover, it wasn’t unusual to see them defend with three midfielders stacked atop their four defenders, thus leaving three options up-field. Assuming they go that route, the risks of the Timbers getting on the wrong side of transition - and, please, relive this nightmare - seems clear and present. Worse, two key Portland starters - Diego Chara and Cristhian Paredes - are one yellow card away from suspensions. Oh, yes indeed, it’s fun time (fun time).
Those are my notes. And if those read pessimistically, I’ve done my job. All in all, if the Timbers won’t try starting Asprilla at forward - or, gods forbid - pairing Asprilla with new, energetic kid Nathan Fogaca, I’m having some trouble picturing their ideal line-up for getting around or through the Union. Taking everything together, I’d call the fact that Philly isn’t playing their best either the most hopeful bit of the goat’s innards. With that, until they play it….
I just sat through two good chunks of the Philly v Miami game - the first 30 minutes, then the 65th to…around the 80th - and, for what it’s worth, that experience doesn’t match the other spot-checks I’ve done on Philly games. They typically play vertically, even to a fault, but the Union either had an off-day, or Miami upset Plan A. They couldn’t start Julian Carranza, their second highest scorer and all-round second most effective player (four goals, three assists), due to the loan arrangement with Miami, so that’s one hole, and they started leggy, loping (yet generally competent) defender, Jack Elliott, as the defensive midfield in the absence of the regular, Jose Martinez (a player I don’t know well, btw). That might have pulled a leg out from Plan A, but, for all the forward movements that petered out or died on both sides of the center-stripe (so many), Philly still created plenty of chances, firing 20 shots, eight of them on goal. Against that, I saw most of those shots (the highlights include, well, the highlights of those), but it didn’t change the overall, real-time impression of a stymied, ambling Union attack.
To turn to some things that went well for Philly, Daniel Gazdag fired some menacing shots, and they’ve got a pair of solid shuttlers in Leon Flach and Alejandro Bedoya (who apparently speaks five languages), and they get solid overlapping options out of Kai Wagner and Nathan Harriel and/or Olivier Mbaizo (depending on who starts). Finally, to defend Philly’s…reasonably-maligned forwards, Sergio Santos and Cory Burke, both made good runs - e.g., see Santos’ run on one of Gazdag’s better shots (coulda had a tap-in) - and, even if either of them only puts away one chance in 15, the risk to Portland of allowing them 15 chances is real.
To flip in the other direction, even with a handful of other defenses in touch, the Union are the only team left standing on single digits for goals allowed. They’ve allowed just five goals over their past nine games, and three of those games came against your livelier attacking teams - e.g., Montreal, Red Bull and LAFC. Based on goals scored alone, Portland keeps up with all three of those teams, but anyone with a working memory knows that seven of the Timbers’ goals on the season came in a wheels-off blowout over Kansas City. Moreover, all those teams score steadily, whereas Portland has been shut-out three times and limited to one goal on six other occasions - i.e., a 0.67 goals-for average across most games. So, the question is, how does a putzing Timbers attack get past that, plus Andre Blake as a back-stop?
Philly usually line up in a 4-4-2 diamond, and they defended in a 4-3-3, or at least they did against Miami, an arrangement that should leave pockets out wide near the top of the Timbers attacking third. That spells potential for Portland getting something out of early crosses - and that sounds like a job for Dairon Asprilla (especially if neither Jaroslaw Niezgoda or Felipe Mora still can’t go) - but the Timbers will have to collectively navigate something even trickier before they get to that point: the Union press. It’s not pure energy-drink blitz, but they do tend to get players to the ball quickly and the line of engagement high, and that should make Timbers fans antsy, given how effectively San Jose (again, that was San Jose) bottled up Portland’s transition in one cul-de-sac after another. Getting through that, especially on Providence Park’s smaller, slicker field amounts to a necessary first step for getting anything more than one point out of Sunday’s game.
One last thought, and it’s one that very much carries over from Wednesday’s loss at San Jose: they will need to bring the game to Philly and on a couple levels. First, they need to meet whatever the Union brings for intensity and eventually gain the upper hand. That this has been an issue goes without saying (some sleepy motherfuckers out there). Second, because the Timbers are playing at home, the Union will have the luxury of absorbing and hitting back on the counter - and that brings in another detail from watching Philly v Miami. I can’t recall a time when the Union had every player behind the ball; moreover, it wasn’t unusual to see them defend with three midfielders stacked atop their four defenders, thus leaving three options up-field. Assuming they go that route, the risks of the Timbers getting on the wrong side of transition - and, please, relive this nightmare - seems clear and present. Worse, two key Portland starters - Diego Chara and Cristhian Paredes - are one yellow card away from suspensions. Oh, yes indeed, it’s fun time (fun time).
Those are my notes. And if those read pessimistically, I’ve done my job. All in all, if the Timbers won’t try starting Asprilla at forward - or, gods forbid - pairing Asprilla with new, energetic kid Nathan Fogaca, I’m having some trouble picturing their ideal line-up for getting around or through the Union. Taking everything together, I’d call the fact that Philly isn’t playing their best either the most hopeful bit of the goat’s innards. With that, until they play it….
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