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| First image for "a bright shiny future." Wow. |
I tune in with anticipation for FC Cincinnati games in 2022. Not dread. Beautiful. Starting with some numbers...
New England Revolution
Record/Basics: 6-5-6, 24 points, 4-2-3 home; 2-3-3 away; 27 gf, 26 ga, +1 goal differential
Last 10: LWTTWTWTWT* (2-0-3 at home; more favorable than not, tho shit’s done changed)
Oppo: @ DC, v MIA, v CLB, @ ATL, @ CIN, v PHI, @ SKC, v ORL, v MIN, @ VAN
What We Know About Them
First, there have changes since the last time Cincy played New England – e.g., no more Matt Turner, no more Adam Buksa (ergo, no more this) – but something else changed as well: the Revs haven’t lost since the last day of April (30 days in April, right?). Still, hey have plenty of talent – your Bous, your Gils, your...rest of the team – and, after starting slower than an 80-year-old getting out of a low-slung sedan, they’re presently breathing down the back of Cincinnati’s collective necks. And the Orange and Blue play this one on the road.
Notes on Recent Form
[* Fucking Form Guide and its shifting dates...]
After watching, oh, 2/3 of last Wednesday’s 0-0 draw at the Vancouver Whitecaps and poking around some box scores, I noted some commonalities. New England generally likes possession, whether at home or on the road (they got ~60/40 in three of their last five, but had a 6% margin at lowest), but they no longer run up the chances (as I recall them doing). The 1-1 draw at the Union aside (danger, Will Robinson, danger!), they’ve generally gone shot-for-shot against the opposition; perhaps more tellingly (or hopeful), they’ve posted modest xG lately – e.g., from a low of 0.5 against Minnesota, but the rest (again, Philly excepted) fell in the just over 1.0 line.
Some details run between the numbers – e.g., they got an assist in the win over Sporting Kansas City with an Uri Rossell red card around half time, and they played up the gut (and got a little lucky) against the Loons, but they showed some tendency to play toward their left – i.e., toward newbie Dylan Borrero’s – in a couple other games. One more thing to flag, they’ve run over their season-average goal differential and/or pattern lately, but not by much. You can see who they played over their past five games, and where, I’m just providing some context for the results.
New England Revolution
Record/Basics: 6-5-6, 24 points, 4-2-3 home; 2-3-3 away; 27 gf, 26 ga, +1 goal differential
Last 10: LWTTWTWTWT* (2-0-3 at home; more favorable than not, tho shit’s done changed)
Oppo: @ DC, v MIA, v CLB, @ ATL, @ CIN, v PHI, @ SKC, v ORL, v MIN, @ VAN
What We Know About Them
First, there have changes since the last time Cincy played New England – e.g., no more Matt Turner, no more Adam Buksa (ergo, no more this) – but something else changed as well: the Revs haven’t lost since the last day of April (30 days in April, right?). Still, hey have plenty of talent – your Bous, your Gils, your...rest of the team – and, after starting slower than an 80-year-old getting out of a low-slung sedan, they’re presently breathing down the back of Cincinnati’s collective necks. And the Orange and Blue play this one on the road.
Notes on Recent Form
[* Fucking Form Guide and its shifting dates...]
After watching, oh, 2/3 of last Wednesday’s 0-0 draw at the Vancouver Whitecaps and poking around some box scores, I noted some commonalities. New England generally likes possession, whether at home or on the road (they got ~60/40 in three of their last five, but had a 6% margin at lowest), but they no longer run up the chances (as I recall them doing). The 1-1 draw at the Union aside (danger, Will Robinson, danger!), they’ve generally gone shot-for-shot against the opposition; perhaps more tellingly (or hopeful), they’ve posted modest xG lately – e.g., from a low of 0.5 against Minnesota, but the rest (again, Philly excepted) fell in the just over 1.0 line.
Some details run between the numbers – e.g., they got an assist in the win over Sporting Kansas City with an Uri Rossell red card around half time, and they played up the gut (and got a little lucky) against the Loons, but they showed some tendency to play toward their left – i.e., toward newbie Dylan Borrero’s – in a couple other games. One more thing to flag, they’ve run over their season-average goal differential and/or pattern lately, but not by much. You can see who they played over their past five games, and where, I’m just providing some context for the results.
Personnel & Its Disposition
I have a couple theories on the once-reckless Revs (you can kill me for that alliteration, honest): 1) Bruce Arena has dialed back the aggression with an eye to giving the now-and-future new kids time to get up to speed, or 2) he’s triaging absences in the defensive midfield. From what I gather (and don’t quote me on this) Arena will have neither Tommy MacNamara (who played dynamite defense in Vancouver) nor Matt Polster for Sunday’s game, through suspension and “head injury,” respectively. Related, I have vague sense Wilfrid Kaptoum is suspect defensively and I don’t see an obvious stand-in on the bench, and I like Obinna Nwobodo’s and [Player’s] chances in that space, regardless of who lines up. File that away...
The Revs have started Andrew Farrell on Jon Bell at CB – both adequate to good, but also pretty good-sized, physical, fast (unlike Omar Gonzalez), and in Farrell’s case, experienced – and they usually start Brandon Bye and DeJuan Jones on either side, and I think the flanks will be interesting in this one. Very interesting. I don’t know about Dorde Petrovic, their new 'keeper, but he looked all right at Vancouver. I do, however, know Gil, Bou, and a little bit about Borrero. Gil floats free and wrecks havoc, obviously, but Bou (assuming Arena starts him**) is what they used to call “mercurial” – i.e., he’s pretty shit at hold up, but he’s one hell of a lurker and dangerous from multiple a variety of ranges/angles if you leave his right foot (pretty sure; if not, the other one, but same point) a clear shot toward goal. I’ve seen Borrero sit defenders on their asses, but he starts from the wings to an arguable fault and does one of two things and in the same way regardless of the option. Yeah, yeah, finding feet and all that; so long as whomever starts at right back for Cincy doesn’t become his first step toward becoming lethal, I feel OK about containing him.
Shit. Almost forgot to mention: I think Bye is out, as well as Henry Kessler (been a while. I think), but Arena almost certainly has Jozy Altidore, Sebastian Lletget and Emanuel Boateng as options – and the other two’s more apparent upsides notwithstanding (and can Lletget play d-mid?) - I’m most worried about the latter because he runs his fucking legs off and takes your players' with him.
I have a couple theories on the once-reckless Revs (you can kill me for that alliteration, honest): 1) Bruce Arena has dialed back the aggression with an eye to giving the now-and-future new kids time to get up to speed, or 2) he’s triaging absences in the defensive midfield. From what I gather (and don’t quote me on this) Arena will have neither Tommy MacNamara (who played dynamite defense in Vancouver) nor Matt Polster for Sunday’s game, through suspension and “head injury,” respectively. Related, I have vague sense Wilfrid Kaptoum is suspect defensively and I don’t see an obvious stand-in on the bench, and I like Obinna Nwobodo’s and [Player’s] chances in that space, regardless of who lines up. File that away...
The Revs have started Andrew Farrell on Jon Bell at CB – both adequate to good, but also pretty good-sized, physical, fast (unlike Omar Gonzalez), and in Farrell’s case, experienced – and they usually start Brandon Bye and DeJuan Jones on either side, and I think the flanks will be interesting in this one. Very interesting. I don’t know about Dorde Petrovic, their new 'keeper, but he looked all right at Vancouver. I do, however, know Gil, Bou, and a little bit about Borrero. Gil floats free and wrecks havoc, obviously, but Bou (assuming Arena starts him**) is what they used to call “mercurial” – i.e., he’s pretty shit at hold up, but he’s one hell of a lurker and dangerous from multiple a variety of ranges/angles if you leave his right foot (pretty sure; if not, the other one, but same point) a clear shot toward goal. I’ve seen Borrero sit defenders on their asses, but he starts from the wings to an arguable fault and does one of two things and in the same way regardless of the option. Yeah, yeah, finding feet and all that; so long as whomever starts at right back for Cincy doesn’t become his first step toward becoming lethal, I feel OK about containing him.
Shit. Almost forgot to mention: I think Bye is out, as well as Henry Kessler (been a while. I think), but Arena almost certainly has Jozy Altidore, Sebastian Lletget and Emanuel Boateng as options – and the other two’s more apparent upsides notwithstanding (and can Lletget play d-mid?) - I’m most worried about the latter because he runs his fucking legs off and takes your players' with him.
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| The enemy. Clearly. |
Notes on the Last Meeting
I had some hopeful scouting notes in there (link below) – for what it’s worth, something about how the Revs defended by trapping overloads on the flank – but I didn’t see enough of that in the Vancouver game to make a big deal out of that. The Revs’ 3-2 win in Cincinnati played out the way I expected at the time: it was a matter of keeping up from FC Cincinnati’s perspective – and, but for a McNamara wunder-strike, they did. The numbers were pretty even, Vazquez matched Buksa...and it was just that, close. They Revs won it in the 89th fucking minute.
Now, Based on All That...
I see no reason why FC Cincinnati should shrink from this game. The ‘Caps managed them pretty well – and, according to my notes, I thought Cincy did the same in May – and I see Vazquez and Luciano Acosta as...roughly analogous players to Lucas Cavallini and Ryan Gauld, but rate the former a little higher than the latter, because they’re both more versatile, mobile and tricky. Also, assuming both McNamara and Polster are out – and I think that's confirmed – Cincy has a very real chance of bossing the midfield space, and that opens up some interesting possibilities, even on the road.
Some Things I Hope to See FC Cincinnati Do
1) I Don’t See Value in a Press
The Revs move the ball very fluidly - and to the point where they get the ball to Gil and/or Borrero all but automatically. That’s not everything, but it’s a better start than most teams get. I’d rather see Noonan draw the line of engagement about five yards into New England’s half and attack everything that comes into, be it man, ball, hot dog, or referee. You get me. Moreover, turning the ball over there gives Cincy’s attacking players more room to run into after turnovers.
2) Try to Make Gil Shoot. And Bou
If Borrerro gets loose its too much to ask (so, 2a) put your best defending full back on the right and rely on John Nelson for attacking width), but I’d prioritize denying Gil passing options over stopping him on the dribble. Defenders should be able to tell when he’s committed to trying to find a shot on his own, so I’d back him into that choice. And I’d just keep a handle on Bou, no matter where he drifts.
I had some hopeful scouting notes in there (link below) – for what it’s worth, something about how the Revs defended by trapping overloads on the flank – but I didn’t see enough of that in the Vancouver game to make a big deal out of that. The Revs’ 3-2 win in Cincinnati played out the way I expected at the time: it was a matter of keeping up from FC Cincinnati’s perspective – and, but for a McNamara wunder-strike, they did. The numbers were pretty even, Vazquez matched Buksa...and it was just that, close. They Revs won it in the 89th fucking minute.
Now, Based on All That...
I see no reason why FC Cincinnati should shrink from this game. The ‘Caps managed them pretty well – and, according to my notes, I thought Cincy did the same in May – and I see Vazquez and Luciano Acosta as...roughly analogous players to Lucas Cavallini and Ryan Gauld, but rate the former a little higher than the latter, because they’re both more versatile, mobile and tricky. Also, assuming both McNamara and Polster are out – and I think that's confirmed – Cincy has a very real chance of bossing the midfield space, and that opens up some interesting possibilities, even on the road.
Some Things I Hope to See FC Cincinnati Do
1) I Don’t See Value in a Press
The Revs move the ball very fluidly - and to the point where they get the ball to Gil and/or Borrero all but automatically. That’s not everything, but it’s a better start than most teams get. I’d rather see Noonan draw the line of engagement about five yards into New England’s half and attack everything that comes into, be it man, ball, hot dog, or referee. You get me. Moreover, turning the ball over there gives Cincy’s attacking players more room to run into after turnovers.
2) Try to Make Gil Shoot. And Bou
If Borrerro gets loose its too much to ask (so, 2a) put your best defending full back on the right and rely on John Nelson for attacking width), but I’d prioritize denying Gil passing options over stopping him on the dribble. Defenders should be able to tell when he’s committed to trying to find a shot on his own, so I’d back him into that choice. And I’d just keep a handle on Bou, no matter where he drifts.
Finito.
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