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| Makes me wanna puke, too. |
The Portland Timbers road form (1-4-4) lends a real "but for Providence Park" vibe to the Timbers 2022 season. On the plus side, they’re playing a team that has struggled to get all three points at home – yes, even lately. First, their numbers:
Nashville SC
Record/Basics: 7-5-5, 26 points, 2-1-3 home, 5-4-2 road; 22 gf, 19 ga, +3
Last 10: TLWLWTWTLW (4-3-3; 2-1-2 home; middling, but last 5 were pretty soft)
Oppo: @ SJ, @ LAG, v RSL, @ HOU, v MTL, v ATL, @ COL, v SJ, v SKC, @ DC
What We Know About Them
I have a misconception that Nashville’s struggling stuck in the back of my mind, but that probably looks at their 2022 through the refracted lens of their home games – more on that later. When most people think Nashville, they probably think Walker Zimmerman at the back, Dax McCarty (somehow still) steering traffic through the middle, and Hany Muhktar running loose up top/off that old war horse C. J. Sapong. And, yes, both have done well in 2022 (8 goals, 5 assists for Hany, 5 goals, 3 assists for Sapong; funny side note on Sapong, he’s still an every other year player). Other words that may come to mind: combative and counter-attacking.
All that has largely held up lately, if with a little less Zimmerman (see, qualifying, World Cup).
Notes on Recent Form
I haven’t seen a ton of Nashville this season – and this’ll be my first full 90 with them – so I’ll have to stretch the numbers a bit. That said, I’m expecting the way they create chances to have a fair resemblance to what they tried – and with some real success against Orlando City SC in their midweek U.S. Open Cup quarterfinal (here’s the MLS in 15 for your edification). Nashville came within three stoppage time minutes of winning that game and had a fair argument for the better team, but that was also another road game; their last two wins both came on the road (at Colorado Rapids and at DC United). When I look at their last three home games – against Atlanta, San Jose and SKC – I’d expect at least five-six points out them, and yet they managed just two. More to the point, they rarely see more of the ball, even at home, and they played arguably their worst game when they attempted possession – the home loss to SKC.
To flesh out the general profile, Nashville doesn’t create a ton of chances – they probably averaged 11 shots/game in their last 5-6 games – but they get a useful number of shots on goal out of it (e.g., around six). And they probably get away with it because they rarely let the opposition get to, never mind much over, a 1.0 xG.
Personal & Its Disposition
Full disclosure, I don’t have a strong sense of what Nashville coach Gary Smith (right?) would call his favored line-up, but Zimmerman’s absence has probably made it more fluid than usual. While they’ve trotted out a number of looks lately – a shifting set of personnel in a 3-5-2, a 3-1-4-2, and even a 4-4-2 once – they played three at the back in four of their past five regular season games as well as in the Open Cup loss; as such, I’d expect them to do it again. Per the passing maps, that has taken the shape of a 3-4-3 on the field, with Randall Leal pushed up with Sapong and Mukhtar and (most often) Alex Muyl staying back to keep the shape. The only, and key constant across all their recent games: Sapong and Mukhtar up top, the “two” in those formations is eternal, etc. About that...
Nashville crosses to them a lot (they averaged around 20 crosses), or they play them over the top (lots of stretched passing maps, especially in the road win over Colorado and the home loss to SKC), and they play them early with an (apparent) eye to clearing out the fullbacks and isolating Mukhtar and Sapong with the CBs. And, yes, this makes me nervous vis-a-vis whichever CB pairing Gio Savarese starts – and, goddammit, I just noticed Bill Tuiloma is suspended, thus loosening my bowels...
Nashville SC
Record/Basics: 7-5-5, 26 points, 2-1-3 home, 5-4-2 road; 22 gf, 19 ga, +3
Last 10: TLWLWTWTLW (4-3-3; 2-1-2 home; middling, but last 5 were pretty soft)
Oppo: @ SJ, @ LAG, v RSL, @ HOU, v MTL, v ATL, @ COL, v SJ, v SKC, @ DC
What We Know About Them
I have a misconception that Nashville’s struggling stuck in the back of my mind, but that probably looks at their 2022 through the refracted lens of their home games – more on that later. When most people think Nashville, they probably think Walker Zimmerman at the back, Dax McCarty (somehow still) steering traffic through the middle, and Hany Muhktar running loose up top/off that old war horse C. J. Sapong. And, yes, both have done well in 2022 (8 goals, 5 assists for Hany, 5 goals, 3 assists for Sapong; funny side note on Sapong, he’s still an every other year player). Other words that may come to mind: combative and counter-attacking.
All that has largely held up lately, if with a little less Zimmerman (see, qualifying, World Cup).
Notes on Recent Form
I haven’t seen a ton of Nashville this season – and this’ll be my first full 90 with them – so I’ll have to stretch the numbers a bit. That said, I’m expecting the way they create chances to have a fair resemblance to what they tried – and with some real success against Orlando City SC in their midweek U.S. Open Cup quarterfinal (here’s the MLS in 15 for your edification). Nashville came within three stoppage time minutes of winning that game and had a fair argument for the better team, but that was also another road game; their last two wins both came on the road (at Colorado Rapids and at DC United). When I look at their last three home games – against Atlanta, San Jose and SKC – I’d expect at least five-six points out them, and yet they managed just two. More to the point, they rarely see more of the ball, even at home, and they played arguably their worst game when they attempted possession – the home loss to SKC.
To flesh out the general profile, Nashville doesn’t create a ton of chances – they probably averaged 11 shots/game in their last 5-6 games – but they get a useful number of shots on goal out of it (e.g., around six). And they probably get away with it because they rarely let the opposition get to, never mind much over, a 1.0 xG.
Personal & Its Disposition
Full disclosure, I don’t have a strong sense of what Nashville coach Gary Smith (right?) would call his favored line-up, but Zimmerman’s absence has probably made it more fluid than usual. While they’ve trotted out a number of looks lately – a shifting set of personnel in a 3-5-2, a 3-1-4-2, and even a 4-4-2 once – they played three at the back in four of their past five regular season games as well as in the Open Cup loss; as such, I’d expect them to do it again. Per the passing maps, that has taken the shape of a 3-4-3 on the field, with Randall Leal pushed up with Sapong and Mukhtar and (most often) Alex Muyl staying back to keep the shape. The only, and key constant across all their recent games: Sapong and Mukhtar up top, the “two” in those formations is eternal, etc. About that...
Nashville crosses to them a lot (they averaged around 20 crosses), or they play them over the top (lots of stretched passing maps, especially in the road win over Colorado and the home loss to SKC), and they play them early with an (apparent) eye to clearing out the fullbacks and isolating Mukhtar and Sapong with the CBs. And, yes, this makes me nervous vis-a-vis whichever CB pairing Gio Savarese starts – and, goddammit, I just noticed Bill Tuiloma is suspended, thus loosening my bowels...
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| I wanna see big swings, people. |
Now, Based on That...
Broadly, I’m expecting a clogged, war-zone-esque midfield and an attack built around the paragraph immediately above. In the event Nashville winds up with more possession – as I suspect they will given how Portland prefers to play – I expect Nashville’s passing map to look a lot like the one from the SKC game, i.e., lots of dicking around at the back and swinging long toward their front two. Basically, a spin on counter-attacking soccer while your team still holds most of the possession, aka, I think Nashville would prefer to play like Portland, but they’ve also got fans to flatter.
Some Things I Hope to See the Timbers Do
1) Pulling Apart the Three
Zimmerman is a well-known beast and, so long as Nashville can keep the two/three defenders close to him – especially on counters – they harder they’ll be to break down (fwiw, I know nothing about Nashville’s ‘keeper, Elliott Panicco, but he looked all right versus Orlando). I’d like to see the Timbers try long diagonals for outlets – balls to get behind Muyl and Lovitz (or whomever) if/when they push into the attack – and to maybe set up the defensive shape to free up Sebastian Blanco and (I expect) Santiago Moreno. Something complicated by...
2) Supporting the Fullbacks
Savarese asks a lot of his outside players, defensively for the fullbacks and in energy from the outside midfielders to help cover the fullbacks. The way Nashville plays could exacerbate that, I saw Claudio “Mr. Lungey” Bravo is questionable (on The Mothership’s eternally questionable “Player Availability” page, but also Josecarlos Van Rankin (who, in his defense, played really well against Houston, at least in the second half). Getting the balance right will be tough.
As such, the wiser course could be to use Blanco and Niezgoda/Mora (though probably still the former) as the outlets for those diagonals and having everyone else catch up.
3) Play Conservative?
I generally like bristling defensive shapes – i.e., stepping hard and fast to deny opposing players time on the ball – but I wonder whether the Timbers might set a low line of engagement to make Nashville break them down. Based on what little I’ve seen, Nashville relies on space to create their better chances, so maybe don’t let ‘em have it?
That’s it for my theories. Time to wait for the whistle.
Broadly, I’m expecting a clogged, war-zone-esque midfield and an attack built around the paragraph immediately above. In the event Nashville winds up with more possession – as I suspect they will given how Portland prefers to play – I expect Nashville’s passing map to look a lot like the one from the SKC game, i.e., lots of dicking around at the back and swinging long toward their front two. Basically, a spin on counter-attacking soccer while your team still holds most of the possession, aka, I think Nashville would prefer to play like Portland, but they’ve also got fans to flatter.
Some Things I Hope to See the Timbers Do
1) Pulling Apart the Three
Zimmerman is a well-known beast and, so long as Nashville can keep the two/three defenders close to him – especially on counters – they harder they’ll be to break down (fwiw, I know nothing about Nashville’s ‘keeper, Elliott Panicco, but he looked all right versus Orlando). I’d like to see the Timbers try long diagonals for outlets – balls to get behind Muyl and Lovitz (or whomever) if/when they push into the attack – and to maybe set up the defensive shape to free up Sebastian Blanco and (I expect) Santiago Moreno. Something complicated by...
2) Supporting the Fullbacks
Savarese asks a lot of his outside players, defensively for the fullbacks and in energy from the outside midfielders to help cover the fullbacks. The way Nashville plays could exacerbate that, I saw Claudio “Mr. Lungey” Bravo is questionable (on The Mothership’s eternally questionable “Player Availability” page, but also Josecarlos Van Rankin (who, in his defense, played really well against Houston, at least in the second half). Getting the balance right will be tough.
As such, the wiser course could be to use Blanco and Niezgoda/Mora (though probably still the former) as the outlets for those diagonals and having everyone else catch up.
3) Play Conservative?
I generally like bristling defensive shapes – i.e., stepping hard and fast to deny opposing players time on the ball – but I wonder whether the Timbers might set a low line of engagement to make Nashville break them down. Based on what little I’ve seen, Nashville relies on space to create their better chances, so maybe don’t let ‘em have it?
That’s it for my theories. Time to wait for the whistle.
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