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| Contemplating approach play with unseen obstacles |
For all the moments of respectability, it is still totally fair to call the Whitecaps Cascadia’s fifth wheel. And yet with Vancouver one thin point behind Portland in the standings, that’ll be cold comfort if the Timbers can’t get ‘er done. Now, the numbers:
Vancouver Whitecaps
Record/Basics: 7-9-4, 25 points; 5-2-3 home, 2-7-1 away; 22 gf, 33 ga, -11 differential
Last 10: WLWWLWTWLT (5-3-2, 2-2-1 on road; in all, a pretty vigorous work-out)
Oppo: v FCD, @ CLT, @ SKC, @ RSL, @ SEA, @ FCD, v NE, v LAFC, v MIN, @ CIN
What We Know About Them
When it comes to Vancouver, I suspect most people know a couple names – e.g., Ryan Gauld, Lucas Cavallini, Maxime Crepeau...who now plays for LAFC – plus some deeper cuts like Cristian Dajome, Russell “Terrier” Teibert and Jake Nerwinski. They’ve freshened the line-up with some familiar names – e.g., Cody Cropper (out for terrifying injury), Tristan Blackmon, Florian Jungwirth – while swinging for some bigger signings like Pedro Vite (who is not, so far, a 90 minute player) and, their flashiest, newest signing, Andres Cubas. They’ve also developed a habit for going on late runs over the past couple seasons and, on their recent record - i.e., 15 points from 30, with six games on the road, and against solid competition (all but two of the last 10 teams they played are over the playoff line, the rest are near it) – one could argue they’re on one again.
Their stats leaders include the usual suspects: Cavallini (6g, 3a), Gauld (3g/3a, who’s still having a bit of an off-season), Dajome (2g/3a, real threat off dribble), and Ryan Raposo (2g/2a).
Notes on Recent Form
They’ve won some big ones lately – e.g., a home win over LAFC and away to Dallas (related, they seem to have Dallas’s number, along with SKC’s) – and, after a disastrous start, many of their positive road results have come in recent weeks. On the video/scouting side, it’s possible I caught them at their worst in all the tape I reviewed: injuries/various absences forced them to make due with a heavily-rotated squad at FC Cincinnati, which led to disjointed play and early defensive breakdowns (and yet they managed), and they fell into a gentle slumber in a 1-3 loss at home to Minnesota after losing some key players at half-time (e.g., Cubas, who looks really good, fwiw, and Godinho) and the visitors turning up the pressure.
The one thing they’ve done very well over their past five games: collectively limited chances for every team they played - i.e., don't expect it to rain freebies just because they have to start 20-year-old home-grown, Ian Boehmer. They’ve allowed an average xG of just under 1.0 across their last five games – a concern Timbers for fans – but they’ve also mirrored that on the attacking side by posting modest xG of their own. Going the other way, they’ve improved, if modestly, on both sides of the ball over the last 10 games.
Personal & Its Disposition
Vanni Sartini very reliable fields either a 3-4-2-1 or a 3-4-1-2; the 3-4 is constant, in other words. The outside of that four consists of wingbacks – it’s been a lot Godinho and Raposo lately (and they just added Julian Gressel, but he won't play), and I think they’re both healthy – with the two in between varying per available personnel; I’m not sure Sartini has had his first-choice pairing available. That said, a big part of Cubas’ upside (who I understand will be available) comes with what he brings going forward; I’ve had two long looks at him and he’s rangy AF and very poised on the ball; Teibert pairs pretty nicely with him as a back-stop (fwiw, I anticipate something close to this line-up). In all the footage I’ve seen, they’ve set the line of engagement about 10 yards inside the opposition’s half and have favored keeping their shape over chasing/winning the ball – and that was both at home and away.
On the attacking side, I saw a lot of vertical play into the channels. When they’re really clicking, they do a good job (better than the Timbers, honestly), of moving the ball around the opposition's penalty area and between the channels and they’re comfortable playing the ball into the heart of Zone 14. Cavallini’s a solid-back-to-goal player (and Bryan White ain’t bad either) and they let Gauld float all over – and, something to pay attention to, he likes camping centrally at the top of the 18 once the ball gets near the end-line in the channels (or out wide). Finally, they generally cede possession at a range between 1:3 and just over 2:3, but not all their goals came off counters; they broke Minnesota down a couple times even after they dropped back.
Vancouver Whitecaps
Record/Basics: 7-9-4, 25 points; 5-2-3 home, 2-7-1 away; 22 gf, 33 ga, -11 differential
Last 10: WLWWLWTWLT (5-3-2, 2-2-1 on road; in all, a pretty vigorous work-out)
Oppo: v FCD, @ CLT, @ SKC, @ RSL, @ SEA, @ FCD, v NE, v LAFC, v MIN, @ CIN
What We Know About Them
When it comes to Vancouver, I suspect most people know a couple names – e.g., Ryan Gauld, Lucas Cavallini, Maxime Crepeau...who now plays for LAFC – plus some deeper cuts like Cristian Dajome, Russell “Terrier” Teibert and Jake Nerwinski. They’ve freshened the line-up with some familiar names – e.g., Cody Cropper (out for terrifying injury), Tristan Blackmon, Florian Jungwirth – while swinging for some bigger signings like Pedro Vite (who is not, so far, a 90 minute player) and, their flashiest, newest signing, Andres Cubas. They’ve also developed a habit for going on late runs over the past couple seasons and, on their recent record - i.e., 15 points from 30, with six games on the road, and against solid competition (all but two of the last 10 teams they played are over the playoff line, the rest are near it) – one could argue they’re on one again.
Their stats leaders include the usual suspects: Cavallini (6g, 3a), Gauld (3g/3a, who’s still having a bit of an off-season), Dajome (2g/3a, real threat off dribble), and Ryan Raposo (2g/2a).
Notes on Recent Form
They’ve won some big ones lately – e.g., a home win over LAFC and away to Dallas (related, they seem to have Dallas’s number, along with SKC’s) – and, after a disastrous start, many of their positive road results have come in recent weeks. On the video/scouting side, it’s possible I caught them at their worst in all the tape I reviewed: injuries/various absences forced them to make due with a heavily-rotated squad at FC Cincinnati, which led to disjointed play and early defensive breakdowns (and yet they managed), and they fell into a gentle slumber in a 1-3 loss at home to Minnesota after losing some key players at half-time (e.g., Cubas, who looks really good, fwiw, and Godinho) and the visitors turning up the pressure.
The one thing they’ve done very well over their past five games: collectively limited chances for every team they played - i.e., don't expect it to rain freebies just because they have to start 20-year-old home-grown, Ian Boehmer. They’ve allowed an average xG of just under 1.0 across their last five games – a concern Timbers for fans – but they’ve also mirrored that on the attacking side by posting modest xG of their own. Going the other way, they’ve improved, if modestly, on both sides of the ball over the last 10 games.
Personal & Its Disposition
Vanni Sartini very reliable fields either a 3-4-2-1 or a 3-4-1-2; the 3-4 is constant, in other words. The outside of that four consists of wingbacks – it’s been a lot Godinho and Raposo lately (and they just added Julian Gressel, but he won't play), and I think they’re both healthy – with the two in between varying per available personnel; I’m not sure Sartini has had his first-choice pairing available. That said, a big part of Cubas’ upside (who I understand will be available) comes with what he brings going forward; I’ve had two long looks at him and he’s rangy AF and very poised on the ball; Teibert pairs pretty nicely with him as a back-stop (fwiw, I anticipate something close to this line-up). In all the footage I’ve seen, they’ve set the line of engagement about 10 yards inside the opposition’s half and have favored keeping their shape over chasing/winning the ball – and that was both at home and away.
On the attacking side, I saw a lot of vertical play into the channels. When they’re really clicking, they do a good job (better than the Timbers, honestly), of moving the ball around the opposition's penalty area and between the channels and they’re comfortable playing the ball into the heart of Zone 14. Cavallini’s a solid-back-to-goal player (and Bryan White ain’t bad either) and they let Gauld float all over – and, something to pay attention to, he likes camping centrally at the top of the 18 once the ball gets near the end-line in the channels (or out wide). Finally, they generally cede possession at a range between 1:3 and just over 2:3, but not all their goals came off counters; they broke Minnesota down a couple times even after they dropped back.
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| A mantra for the occasion |
Now, Based on All That
I’ll be stunned if Vancouver doesn’t focus on making the Timbers beat them; related, they’ll give Portland more of the ball than they like having. I’ll be very interested to see what Sartini does with the front three – e.g., will he go with Gauld floating behind two forwards (White and Cavallini) or stick White or Cavallini up top and both, say, Gauld and Dajome behind? Also, I hate to think about how much that could matter (and, fwiw, I most dread the two forward set). Unless Portland can score early and get Vancouver chasing (i.e., what happened after Minnesota equalized), I fully expect an afternoon of frustration.
Some Things I Hope to See the Timbers Do
1) Hello! Echo!, aka, the Same Thing I Say Every Match
Support the fullbacks, especially with the way Vancouver hits the channels. They’ll have to keep a handle on Cavallini, who scored from Josecarlos Van Rankin's favorite space to take a nap (i.e., gap between him and CBs on back-post). I’ll also be interested to see where they line up Dajome, who I’ve seen take the outside in that midfield four, because he’s good enough on the dribble that isolating him wide could cause mischief. For the dozenth time, the players Portland starts at d-mid/No. 8s will need to help manage the channels.
2) Keep Track of Gauld
Again, he’s not having the best season, but, on top of getting a couple looks from his favorite spot at the top of the 18, he scored off a late run at Cincy and very nearly bagged one against LAFC doing the same. Gauld passes well and has a solid sense of timing for switching the play, but I don’t think he’ll need any special management going into the attack – except when it comes to helping the far-side fullback when he (or anyone else) switches the ball.
2a) Basically, Make the Horizontal Movement in the Defensive Third Sharp
3) Move Your Ass, Bitch
First, let me explain the choice of words: I will Venmo $20 to anyone who can name the specific movie where I heard that line (as in, you can’t find any movie with that line; also, I don’t think any long-time friends read these posts, but, in the event they do, they are not eligible for the contest). Now, to the actual thought.
Because the ‘Caps aren’t a high-scoring team, and because I expect them to compact the defense and give the Timbers almost nothing in transition, I want to see the Timbers attack play with what sounds like an unlikely combination of speed and patience – i.e., do whatever they’re going to do on the ball like they’re kicking around a hot potato, but also waiting for a good look. More than anything else, I want to see the Timbers resist settling for crosses and I want to see more movement to shift the ‘Caps defense around than a collection of passes around the area. Basically, whenever a play isn’t on, pull the ball back and reset the attack. But do it all quickly.
4) Sub, Early and Often
I don’t know if Felipe Mora is ready to start, but he’s likely to be Portland’s sharpest sword for cutting through the ‘Caps defense. As follows, if he can’t start, I want him on sooner rather than later. Not having Eryk Williamson as an option hurts, obviously (yellow card accumulation), but I (as usual) want to see the Timbers change personnel/how they attack early enough for the subbed players to get into the flow.
All in all, I’m bracing for a draw and pulling for a win. An actual goddamn loss will stun me. See you on the other side.
Some Things I Hope to See the Timbers Do
1) Hello! Echo!, aka, the Same Thing I Say Every Match
Support the fullbacks, especially with the way Vancouver hits the channels. They’ll have to keep a handle on Cavallini, who scored from Josecarlos Van Rankin's favorite space to take a nap (i.e., gap between him and CBs on back-post). I’ll also be interested to see where they line up Dajome, who I’ve seen take the outside in that midfield four, because he’s good enough on the dribble that isolating him wide could cause mischief. For the dozenth time, the players Portland starts at d-mid/No. 8s will need to help manage the channels.
2) Keep Track of Gauld
Again, he’s not having the best season, but, on top of getting a couple looks from his favorite spot at the top of the 18, he scored off a late run at Cincy and very nearly bagged one against LAFC doing the same. Gauld passes well and has a solid sense of timing for switching the play, but I don’t think he’ll need any special management going into the attack – except when it comes to helping the far-side fullback when he (or anyone else) switches the ball.
2a) Basically, Make the Horizontal Movement in the Defensive Third Sharp
3) Move Your Ass, Bitch
First, let me explain the choice of words: I will Venmo $20 to anyone who can name the specific movie where I heard that line (as in, you can’t find any movie with that line; also, I don’t think any long-time friends read these posts, but, in the event they do, they are not eligible for the contest). Now, to the actual thought.
Because the ‘Caps aren’t a high-scoring team, and because I expect them to compact the defense and give the Timbers almost nothing in transition, I want to see the Timbers attack play with what sounds like an unlikely combination of speed and patience – i.e., do whatever they’re going to do on the ball like they’re kicking around a hot potato, but also waiting for a good look. More than anything else, I want to see the Timbers resist settling for crosses and I want to see more movement to shift the ‘Caps defense around than a collection of passes around the area. Basically, whenever a play isn’t on, pull the ball back and reset the attack. But do it all quickly.
4) Sub, Early and Often
I don’t know if Felipe Mora is ready to start, but he’s likely to be Portland’s sharpest sword for cutting through the ‘Caps defense. As follows, if he can’t start, I want him on sooner rather than later. Not having Eryk Williamson as an option hurts, obviously (yellow card accumulation), but I (as usual) want to see the Timbers change personnel/how they attack early enough for the subbed players to get into the flow.
All in all, I’m bracing for a draw and pulling for a win. An actual goddamn loss will stun me. See you on the other side.
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