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| The enemy. Obviously. |
I saw a tweet about how the Portland/Seattle series features an unusual games where the home team loses. I didn’t screen-cap it and I can’t figure out a low-effort way to look it up, so, pffftt...
Seattle Sounders
Record/Basics: 8-7-2, 26 points, 5-3-1 home, 3-4-1 away; 26 gf, 19 ga, +7 goal differential
Last 10: WLWWLWTWLW (4-1-1 home, 2-0-2 away; more businesslike than outstanding)
Oppo: v VAN, @ FCD, v MIN, @ HOU, @ COL, v CLT, v LAFC, v SKC, v MTL, @ TFC
What We Know About Them
You mean besides the fact they’re like the rich-kid villain from every coming-of-age movie ever made? Personages from a dream from which you wish you could awake, only more annoying than frightening?
Look, hate ‘em or hate ‘em, the Seattle Sounders have been the most consistent team in Major League Soccer since joining in...I don’t care when. Even the players people (which, here, means Portland Timbers fans) shit on – e.g., Cristian Roldan; I’ll never get that one – tend to be good parts of the machine, even if they’re not the best players.
Despite the rocky start – which (how fucking on-brand is this?) paid off – Seattle wasted little time clawing itself back over the playoff line. Moreover, if anyone doubted they’d do exactly that, I never saw or heard them say it. As for my personal theory about the secret of Seattle’s success, it comes in two parts: 1) their goals allowed consistently falls below the league average (often well; related, the present average for goals allowed is 24.7, Seattle has let in 19); and 2) their attack puts teams in what I call “the Murder Box,” i.e., pinning the opposition in their defensive third with waves of bodies and often getting at least two shots/sequence off that.
People who watch more closely appreciate the Sounders made the climb despite missing a literal handful of regular starters (e.g., João Paulo, Xavier Arriaga, Raúl Ruidíaz, Will Bruin and Obed Vargas(?)), and that brings the story to the present.
Seattle Sounders
Record/Basics: 8-7-2, 26 points, 5-3-1 home, 3-4-1 away; 26 gf, 19 ga, +7 goal differential
Last 10: WLWWLWTWLW (4-1-1 home, 2-0-2 away; more businesslike than outstanding)
Oppo: v VAN, @ FCD, v MIN, @ HOU, @ COL, v CLT, v LAFC, v SKC, v MTL, @ TFC
What We Know About Them
You mean besides the fact they’re like the rich-kid villain from every coming-of-age movie ever made? Personages from a dream from which you wish you could awake, only more annoying than frightening?
Look, hate ‘em or hate ‘em, the Seattle Sounders have been the most consistent team in Major League Soccer since joining in...I don’t care when. Even the players people (which, here, means Portland Timbers fans) shit on – e.g., Cristian Roldan; I’ll never get that one – tend to be good parts of the machine, even if they’re not the best players.
Despite the rocky start – which (how fucking on-brand is this?) paid off – Seattle wasted little time clawing itself back over the playoff line. Moreover, if anyone doubted they’d do exactly that, I never saw or heard them say it. As for my personal theory about the secret of Seattle’s success, it comes in two parts: 1) their goals allowed consistently falls below the league average (often well; related, the present average for goals allowed is 24.7, Seattle has let in 19); and 2) their attack puts teams in what I call “the Murder Box,” i.e., pinning the opposition in their defensive third with waves of bodies and often getting at least two shots/sequence off that.
People who watch more closely appreciate the Sounders made the climb despite missing a literal handful of regular starters (e.g., João Paulo, Xavier Arriaga, Raúl Ruidíaz, Will Bruin and Obed Vargas(?)), and that brings the story to the present.
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| A "murder box" happy meal, apparently. |
Notes on Recent Form
I’ll start by confessing I botched the research. On the theory that the line-up Seattle started in Saturday’s win at Toronto had enough replacements that it counted as a one-off, I spent about 60 minutes on Seattle’s 1-2 home loss to Club du Foot Montreal – both because they started...most of their regular XI, and for morale. Seattle wound up playing like unrepresentative shit in that one, something I can’t see them doing again, especially at home against the Timbers. So...
They’ve won every other game over their last seven (as in, not all the rest, but literally every other game), but the layout has also favored success – e.g., home games against Charlotte, Vancouver (before they heated up), SKC, and that road game against Toronto, who sucks. A combination of gifts (from the opposition) – e.g., LAFC handed Albert Rusnak Seattle’s go-ahead goal, Ruidiaz won the Charlotte game on a wild shot, and I have never seen a defender lose an attacking player in his line of sight the way Toronto’s Luca Petrasso did - and good fortune (aka, a lightly-favorable schedule). It doesn’t sound crazy to say they’ve lost against every team/situation with any teeth to it (e.g., away to Colorado, home to Montreal).
Personal & Its Disposition
Assuming all are present and accounted for – and often when they are not – Brian Schmetzer lines ‘em up in a 4-2-3-1, but that’s not the interesting thing. Seattle’s passing map confirms the “Murder Box” theory – they show a freakish/elongated (for example), yet consistent gap between an attacking front 5-6 and the defense – which supports the idea their attack seeks to bludgeon defenses to death. Something else the passing maps suggest: the 4-5 player heart of that attack plays fairly narrowly – i.e., they work the box – and they don’t cross a lot.
I tried to confirm that while watching the Montreal loss, but also to develop a theory as to why they did that. The only thing I could come up with was that they used that space to open space for Lodeiro to drop back and work his magic. I’m still on maybe with that one, but they do like to get the ball to their up-field players pretty damn quick. I think the drill has been around long enough that most Timbers fans know it: Seattle stretches the field with Morris (mostly into Josecarlos Van Rankin’s part of the field), Lodeiro pops up all over to work the angles, and Ruidiaz mines every seam he can find - and often strikes gold.
Finally, if you look at the line-up against Montreal, I’d pretty much expect the Timbers will play that, if with Ruidiaz back in (probably; I saw a tweet I have no reason to doubt) over Fredy Montero. I haven’t seen anything about Xavier Arreaga or Joao Paolo, but both would be big returns; that said, a Rusnak/Kelyn Rowe d-mid (which they used v Montreal) might not be great, but it’s far from helpless.
Now, Based on All That...
On the plus side, the Timbers should be able to play their game – the ol’ absorb ‘n’ counter. They’re as close to fully healthy as they’ve been all season long – [UPDATE: Oregonlive.com is reporting that Cristian Paredes and Diego Chara are both available for tomorrow's game, but that Eryk Williamson is questionable due to a dodgy foot.] – but they’ve got both cover and options, both in personnel and tactics, and that’s just ducky. A couple more games for some key players aside – e.g., Eryk Williamson and Felipe Mora – things couldn’t line up more favorably for the Timbers.
All the above duly noted and entered into the record, these games tend throw out the script and then light it on fire. I fucking hate the “MLS is so wacky!” narrative, but it fits this series.
Some Things I Hope to See the Timbers Do
1) Establish Exits Out of the Murder Box
If Seattle is going to leave that gap between their attacking players and their defenders, I feel like Portland should set up to exploit that space. To wit, I’d make one player a designated outlet and make sure he’s the first person every Timbers player looks for when he gets the ball. Seattle will adapt, obviously, Gio should prepare his players to designate a new player on the opposite side as the back-up outlet. And, when Seattle figures that out, go back to the other guy. Bottom line, Portland should play out when they can, while also agreeing on a way to just fucking clear the ball with the best hope of holding onto it as possible.
1a) That Would Be a Good Way to Start Transition
Get those defenders back-pedaling ASAP, as a rule of thumb.
2) Maybe Target Alex Roldan?
He looked slow/over-matched on a couple chances against Montreal (think even Lappanainen burned him) and I thought I saw a couple more gaffes-fer-goals (or just shots) in other games. I’d say this points to the wisdom of starting Dairon Asprilla.
3) Don’t Sit on the Subs
Portland finally has enough healthy players to change the look. I hope like hell Gio won’t hesitate to make changes – e.g., at the half if Portland’s down or struggling, but by the 60th minute at the earliest. I like surprises as much as they next guy, but I think getting fresh players on the field with enough time to get into rhythm will pay off more in this game than most.
4) Don’t Play a High Defensive Line
The Timbers rarely do, but Montreal damn-near self-immolated by giving Morris that option.
Right. Let's do it, guys! Let's go beat up Chad!
I’ll start by confessing I botched the research. On the theory that the line-up Seattle started in Saturday’s win at Toronto had enough replacements that it counted as a one-off, I spent about 60 minutes on Seattle’s 1-2 home loss to Club du Foot Montreal – both because they started...most of their regular XI, and for morale. Seattle wound up playing like unrepresentative shit in that one, something I can’t see them doing again, especially at home against the Timbers. So...
They’ve won every other game over their last seven (as in, not all the rest, but literally every other game), but the layout has also favored success – e.g., home games against Charlotte, Vancouver (before they heated up), SKC, and that road game against Toronto, who sucks. A combination of gifts (from the opposition) – e.g., LAFC handed Albert Rusnak Seattle’s go-ahead goal, Ruidiaz won the Charlotte game on a wild shot, and I have never seen a defender lose an attacking player in his line of sight the way Toronto’s Luca Petrasso did - and good fortune (aka, a lightly-favorable schedule). It doesn’t sound crazy to say they’ve lost against every team/situation with any teeth to it (e.g., away to Colorado, home to Montreal).
Personal & Its Disposition
Assuming all are present and accounted for – and often when they are not – Brian Schmetzer lines ‘em up in a 4-2-3-1, but that’s not the interesting thing. Seattle’s passing map confirms the “Murder Box” theory – they show a freakish/elongated (for example), yet consistent gap between an attacking front 5-6 and the defense – which supports the idea their attack seeks to bludgeon defenses to death. Something else the passing maps suggest: the 4-5 player heart of that attack plays fairly narrowly – i.e., they work the box – and they don’t cross a lot.
I tried to confirm that while watching the Montreal loss, but also to develop a theory as to why they did that. The only thing I could come up with was that they used that space to open space for Lodeiro to drop back and work his magic. I’m still on maybe with that one, but they do like to get the ball to their up-field players pretty damn quick. I think the drill has been around long enough that most Timbers fans know it: Seattle stretches the field with Morris (mostly into Josecarlos Van Rankin’s part of the field), Lodeiro pops up all over to work the angles, and Ruidiaz mines every seam he can find - and often strikes gold.
Finally, if you look at the line-up against Montreal, I’d pretty much expect the Timbers will play that, if with Ruidiaz back in (probably; I saw a tweet I have no reason to doubt) over Fredy Montero. I haven’t seen anything about Xavier Arreaga or Joao Paolo, but both would be big returns; that said, a Rusnak/Kelyn Rowe d-mid (which they used v Montreal) might not be great, but it’s far from helpless.
Now, Based on All That...
On the plus side, the Timbers should be able to play their game – the ol’ absorb ‘n’ counter. They’re as close to fully healthy as they’ve been all season long – [UPDATE: Oregonlive.com is reporting that Cristian Paredes and Diego Chara are both available for tomorrow's game, but that Eryk Williamson is questionable due to a dodgy foot.] – but they’ve got both cover and options, both in personnel and tactics, and that’s just ducky. A couple more games for some key players aside – e.g., Eryk Williamson and Felipe Mora – things couldn’t line up more favorably for the Timbers.
All the above duly noted and entered into the record, these games tend throw out the script and then light it on fire. I fucking hate the “MLS is so wacky!” narrative, but it fits this series.
Some Things I Hope to See the Timbers Do
1) Establish Exits Out of the Murder Box
If Seattle is going to leave that gap between their attacking players and their defenders, I feel like Portland should set up to exploit that space. To wit, I’d make one player a designated outlet and make sure he’s the first person every Timbers player looks for when he gets the ball. Seattle will adapt, obviously, Gio should prepare his players to designate a new player on the opposite side as the back-up outlet. And, when Seattle figures that out, go back to the other guy. Bottom line, Portland should play out when they can, while also agreeing on a way to just fucking clear the ball with the best hope of holding onto it as possible.
1a) That Would Be a Good Way to Start Transition
Get those defenders back-pedaling ASAP, as a rule of thumb.
2) Maybe Target Alex Roldan?
He looked slow/over-matched on a couple chances against Montreal (think even Lappanainen burned him) and I thought I saw a couple more gaffes-fer-goals (or just shots) in other games. I’d say this points to the wisdom of starting Dairon Asprilla.
3) Don’t Sit on the Subs
Portland finally has enough healthy players to change the look. I hope like hell Gio won’t hesitate to make changes – e.g., at the half if Portland’s down or struggling, but by the 60th minute at the earliest. I like surprises as much as they next guy, but I think getting fresh players on the field with enough time to get into rhythm will pay off more in this game than most.
4) Don’t Play a High Defensive Line
The Timbers rarely do, but Montreal damn-near self-immolated by giving Morris that option.
Right. Let's do it, guys! Let's go beat up Chad!
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