MLS at 20 (or Thereabouts): Looking Back, Ahead, and Up and Down

He's not sure what he's seeing either.

Going into the June international break, I posted a State-of-the-League behemoth, which amounted to an update of a preview post I put up when Major League Soccer kicked off the 2022 season. On June 10 – i.e., just before the league picked up again after the June break - I followed that up with a pretty damn sloppy post (if structurally spot-on; that was Plan A all along!) that previewed the next five games for all the teams across MLS.

This post will pull notes from those, and look forward to the future with two thoughts in mind: 1) showing what I got and what I missed – which I see as a proxy for the relevant teams actually being what they looked like; and 2) reassessing, oh, everything now that we’ve got 20 games with which to work, my grand pronouncements should stand on a steadier soapbox – and I’ve organized the teams below on that firmer ground. The ranking system should ring a couple bells – e.g., “Contender,” “Playoff-Caliber,” “Margin Walkers,” and “Fodder” – but, again, it’s projection, something that most people should know well enough through everything between weather forecasting more than, oh, three days out. Bring an umbrella and warm clothes, basically, and trust no one and nothing.

Wrapping up the preamble, I thought I’d give quick definitions for each category:

Contenders: Teams that have done consistently well all season.

Playoff Caliber: Teams I can’t see slipping under the playoff line in the next five games…but never say never.

Margin Walkers: Teams I can see falling out of, or climbing into the playoffs over the next five games and for any reason whatsoever.

Fodder: Teams that have done consistently poorly all season, some of whom have been thinking about next season for the past several seasons.

That’s everything. As you’ll see, the “Margin Walker” category is the chunkiest. I explain the calls where I feel like I need to. And…we’re off….

CONTENDERS

Los Angeles FC

Theory as of 5/29

“An oddball home loss against Austin aside, LAFC hit the mark. And, as noted in the ‘Preseason Theory,’ I did not see this coming. Even to the extent they owe to NYCFC’s CCL run, LAFC is the best team in MLS right now. And they’re hitting that mark both on the road and at home, and with a non-dominant Carlos Vela.”

June 10 Notes Versus Actual Results

I fully expected them to keep up the pace, and they have. They went 4-1-1 since mid-June and just retook the lead in the Supporters’ Shield race. Then they also did some roster shit, some of which made sense, some of which made me park on a decisive “wait-and-see,” but I also saw the word “juggernaut” used, if in a space with motivation to hype...and before anything happened on the field....

The Next Five/New(?) Theory: @ SKC, v SEA, @ RSL, v CLT, v DC

Seattle strikes me as the wild-card in that run (even if they keep on turning up the wrong card), but I’d expect LAFC to pick up a good haul of points from that run....and I won’t worry overly if they don’t, especially if other details makes sense of it.

Austin FC

I’d be stunned to see them go deep, but they’ve also stunned me all season, so…

Theory as of 5/29

“They remain a tough team to read, but they’re also just seven points under their total points for 2021, they have a six-point cushion on no less than five teams one would expect to beat them, whether based on history or the 2021 season (e.g., Nashville, Minnesota, Colorado, Seattle, and Portland), and yet there they are at fourth place, what looks like a good system in place, and 20 games still to play. Austin stays up if even…two of the under-achieving teams in parenthesis immediately above keeps doing it…and, goddamn you, don’t you dare check my math. If I see so much as one fucking permutation…”

June 10 Notes Versus Actual Results

I was on the first steps toward belief – they’d already defied gravity by then – and, um, they’re seven games unbeaten since then, five of them wins.

The Next Five/New(?) Theory: v RBNY, @ SKC, v SJ, v SKC, @ MIN

Well, I sure as shit don’t see that putting a wrinkle in their stride. With that run of games, I’d call them a good bet to regain the Supporters’ Shield lead.

New York City FC

This feels lazy, but....and it’ll be interesting to see what losing Taty does.

Theory as of 5/29

“NYC swept all of those games. The margins didn’t impress like they did in April, but NYCFC didn’t allow a goal throughout. No matter how unimpressive you find each of those teams, that’s still impressive. They haven’t lost a step yet…but they also haven’t lost Taty (et. al.) yet.”

June 10 Notes Versus Actual Results

Taty finally moved on (though, full disclosure, I don’t know when he actually leaves). They had a couple wobbles after the June break – e.g., drawing at home to two road-shy teams (Colorado and Atlanta), and they scored four but still couldn’t beat Cincy (!) away – but they’ve since righted the ship

The Next Five/New(?) Theory: v MIA, @ MTL, @ CLB, @ MIA, v CLT

I figured they’d keep going and...voila! The margins have shrunk, perhaps even more since before June break (see slim 1-0 road wins over Dallas (who have struggled) and the Red Bulls), but that’s still a lot of punching down for an NYCFC team, one with a five-point cushion (plus a game in hand) or a six-point cushion above one of their more immediate rivals. They can trip, in other words, without it mattering a ton. Losing Taty will hurt (he got the winner at RBNY, if I remember right).

Philadelphia Union

I almost slipped them into the category below. See the June 10 notes.

Theory as of 5/29

“Hey-oh, they picked up five points. I continue to expect Philly to achieve more than they succeed. Also, does that make sense? If not, I expect them to put the fear of…a very stern principle into every team they face, but without expecting them to make either grade (aka, win either Cup or Shield).” [Shit. Misspelled “principal”; wanted to give the sense of something that’s threatening, but only in specific contexts.]

June 10 Notes Versus Actual Results

I noted a soft schedule – e.g., “their upcoming schedule (v CIN, v NYC, @ CHI, @ CLB, v DC) should give them a decent chance at slipping out of that rut.” And look at who went 4-1-2 since the June break...and, yes, two of those wins (@ MIA and v NE) came after the projection. Still, they did the good and necessary and sit atop the East, and with breathing room, going into Week 21.

The Next Five/New(?) Theory: @ ORL, v HOU, @ CIN, v CHI, @ FCD

Between form (e.g., Orlando, Dallas, even a slow-walking Cincy) and venue (e.g., hosting Houston and Chicago), I’d put money on more progress for Philly, even if it isn’t linear.

PLAYOFF-CALIBER

New York Red Bulls

Uneven as an English highway in hot weather, but they look pretty damn safe near-term.

Theory as of 5/29

“A solid hammering of FC [ahem. *DC] at home patched up what I still read as a prat-fall, but they’re still fourth in the East and just three points off the pace.”

June 10 Notes Versus Actual Results

No team has made a mockery of my personal expectations in 2022 like the Red Bulls. And now the rat-bastards are 3rd in the East. Going the other way, they got there on a 3-2-1 record, and with the three wins coming against the more reliable “Hit-Man Bob” teams of MLS. Keep that salt-lick handy, in other words. I’ll give you the right time twice a day...and I’m due.

The Next Five/New(?) Theory: @ ATX, v COL, @ DC, v ORL, @ ATL

And yet that schedule strikes me as favorable for them. More of what they got after the June break, basically. Breaks. At the very real risk of another face-plant, I expect the Red Bulls to stay in third place five games from today.

Minnesota United FC

No, the gap isn’t big, but they’re walking on firm ground.

Theory as of 5/29

“I’d call four points from that stretch a good response to the pessimism of the note. Between everything above and below them, Minnesota still seems very much in it.” [Ed. – Clearly, the fact some of these would read like gibberish absent context did not occur to me...]

June 10 Notes Versus Actual Results

I pegged Minnesota to pick up a good numbers of points from what struck me as a soft-ish schedule – enough to stay ahead of the Timbers - and they’d picked up 1.29/game going in. After a stumbling start (consecutive 1-2 losses at the Revs and Miami), the Loons wound up shooting a little higher, going 4-1-2 since the June break. They’re 4th in the West going into the Week 21.

The Next Five/New(?) Theory: @ HOU, v POR, @ COL, @ NSH, v ATX

Given how well they navigated the soft stretch, as well as a couple games after, I figure Minnesota will pick up a healthy number of points over the next five – even if they fall short on total points, the smart money says they’re a good bet to force draws in any/all of those road games. Stealing points from rivals can be just as good as picking them up yourself...

Club du Foot Montreal

Because I can’t see anyone catching them.

Theory as of 5/29

“Montreal…did not get all those points. Worse, they dropped three dumb ones against RSL and based on what I watched, deservedly so. That said, the ‘in-house pundits’ I pissed on in January look smarter than I do right now.”

June 10 Notes Versus Actual Results

The read might have gone sideways going into the June break, but I still projected Montreal to stick in the Top 4 in the Eastern Conference “perhaps in style and comfort,” and so they have...even if by just two points. And I can’t speak to the style/comfort part of that. Interestingly, they struggled against Western Conference teams – well, not against Seattle, but they made up for catching that break with a belly-flop against the Galaxy (0-4) – and went 3-3-0 since the break. The lights were either on or off, basically.

The Next Five/New(?) Theory: @ DC, v NYC, @ CLB, v MIA, @ HOU

Because Montreal travels well enough (4-4-2) and with two of those road games coming on the wrong side of the playoff line, they feel like a good bet to stay in fourth. They might even challenged the Red Bulls (just two points above) for third.

Real Salt Lake

It’s the cushion between them in the line. That’s literally it. The shakiest call in this section.

Theory as of 5/29

“They still have Vancouver away between now and the fully-dressed and able MLS regular season we’ll see on June 18, but RSL already has six points from the first two and, yeah, I’ve given up on predicting this team. They’re going to do what they do, which, for the time being, is pretty damn well.”

June 10 Notes Versus Actual Results

I expected RSL to “separate” from Austin and the Galaxy, and so they did, just not the way I expected. They managed two wins of the sort that a third-place simply has to – e.g., home wins over San Jose and SKC – but they’ve dropped some suggest points as well (e.g., home draws to Columbus and Colorado) and they’ve dropped three straight on the road, if by one-goal margins.

The Next Five/New(?) Theory: v FCD, @ SJ, v LAFC, @ SEA, v VAN

I’d call whether can turn their season around they biggest question mark of that bunch. Seeing them get seven-to-eight out of that wouldn’t shock me, but I doubt five-to-six would hurt them much.

MARGIN WALKERS

Portland Timbers

No, they probably shouldn’t be at the top of this group. Just being a good homer…

Theory as of 5/29

“And I’m not ‘mama-birding’ that shit up for the 10th time for the same reason. That I could accurately describe what wouldn’t work before the season even kicked off points to a problem of nothing else. The main questions now are, how serious are they, and how long will they take to resolve?”

June 10 Notes Versus Actual Results

I said they wouldn’t get five points from the return to the June break and the road game at Seattle, and said I’d eat my words if they did....hold on....chewing. And yet, as noted in my last post, I am not content, but I have a fairly long history of getting antsy when the Timbers don’t pick up points I expect them to. Moving on, and back to eating words....

The Next Five/New(?) Theory: v SJ, @ MIN, v NSH, v FCD, @ TFC

Ah, delightful. More opportunities for lamentations and gnashing of teeth. The good news: that’s three six-point games against teams who are 1) above the Timbers, and 2) within reach. Good be transformational...

Nashville SC

Because they seem to trip every other step and fall down every third step. Just not convinced.

Theory as of 5/29

“They didn’t answer in the way I expected – e.g., they stripped three points out of Commerce City and early on - but Nashville answered all the same. After a fairly protracted road-trip/general struggle, Nashville’s in it, and with four points to spare.”

June 10 Notes Versus Actual Results

Nashville had it pretty damn easy since then – notably, a handful of home games that just about everyone assumed they’d use to climb the table – but they went 2-3-2 after the June break, and picked up just four points of 15 on offer at home (the win came against Seattle, but they’re handing out points lately). And yet, courtesy of a combination of stalls ‘n’ stumbles by the teams around them, they remain “in it.”

The Next Five/New(?) Theory: @ CIN, v VAN, @ POR, v TFC, v MIN

With the way they’re pissing away points at home, some of them close to free (e.g., goal-less draw v San Jose, 1-2 home loss to SKC), I don’t see any reason to expect them to clean up on that run. Just three home wins...Jesus...

Seattle Sounders FC

Watching them squirm has brightened up my summer. But they’ve got a good shot at righting the ship.

Theory as of 5/29

“Exactly as foreseen, only with six points earned and on fewer goals. Moreover, they look like your better than average bet of going on a genuine, bona-fide tear over their next 10 games. The race to the top of the West will not be a coronation. And I feel better about the Supporters’ Shield moving to the East this season.”

June 10 Notes Versus Actual Results

Like just about everyone, I expected the annual surge, but Seattle have thrown away a (for them) stunning number of points in recent weeks, and losing four of their past five goes miles off their script like bad ad-libbing – and the loss at Chicago almost certainly made some fans sweaty – and absences are killing them. Still, never turn your back on these assholes...

The Next Five/New(?) Theory: v COL, @ LAFC, v FCD, @ ATL, v RSL

What’s next in Seattle’s brave new world? Those look like three winnable home games, and I’m confident that would be enough to re-write the narrative. Just feels less guaranteed than in past seasons.

FC Dallas

Fallin’ apart of late. That’s why.

Theory as of 5/29

“Despite dropping the dumbest points from those games (Dallas beat Orlando away 3-1, and lost the other two) they’re still second in the West, they still have a solid home record (5-1-1, the majority against good/TCOB (taking care of business) teams, plus they’ve got a seven-point cushion between them and the playoff line. Things could fall apart, sure, but Dallas’ path to perdition looks long and winding from here.”

June 10 Notes Versus Actual Results

I acknowledged a tough schedule, while also thinking that, based on one of the then-best goal differentials, Dallas would separate from Austin and the Galaxy, if “ever-so-slightly.” Back in the real world, Dallas hasn’t won since the June break and they’ve gone 0-3-4 since then. Ma ain’t proud, and has no reason to be.

The Next Five/New(?) Theory: @ RSL, v LAG, @ SEA, @ POR, v SJ

Given how stubborn Dallas has been this season – i.e., they’ve forced a lot of ties – they should take a good number of points out of that stretch, regardless of how much they’ve cooled down. The reality they no longer look like contenders finishes the thought in a way that virtually anyone who survived junior high should appreciate.

Son of a bitch. I forgot to complete the copy/paste for the Vancouver Whitecaps as I was shuffling things into categories. They belong in this group, and fit in right about here. They had a good run right after the June break - which exceeded my expectations - but their recent stumbles (and injury woes) felt like reverting to their usual so-close-yet-so-far mean.

Orlando City SC

The definition of quality without mojo.

Theory as of 5/29

“And they pissed it away and picked up just one point from that – plus Dallas blew them out. Unless they can turn the next generation noted above into something consistent, I expect Orlando to win more than they lose, and to give up some dumb ones at the same time. I see them competing (and laboring) more than I see them winning anything. That said, their near-term schedule (i.e., their next 10 games) may give them a boost.”

June 10 Notes Versus Actual Results

They did not. Orlando seems to have embraced reverting to some invisible mean in the East. They’re still above three spots (aka, 5th) and four games above the playoff line, but they also keep slipping up, thereby allowing the teams below to stay in touch. On the plus side, they mastered the art of stealing a point on the road lately...

The Next Five/New(?) Theory: v PHI, @ DC, v NE, @ RBNY, @ CLT

I can’t see any reason to expect anything, but more of the same. Or any reason to think that’ll drag them down. If they do trip up – say, getting less than four points – that might do it. And that’s far from crazy.

FC Cincinnati

Look, I would love to put them higher, but…

Theory as of 5/29

“I didn’t expect a damn thing from Cincinnati, didn’t rate their existing players, didn’t think their (then-)new acquisitions (John Nelson, Junior Moreno, Ian Murphy) could turn around a dismal past. Cincinnati got bupkiss from those two games; they also scored a lot of goals while also letting in a bunch against to two playing…if for varying reasons, the same model. To riff a little here – because I see FC Cincinnati as my step-team – I’m a little torn on what I read as a choice to give up points now in order to gain success later. That’s to say, Cincy appears to have prioritized sorting out how to attack over the dark arts of how not to lose games. On the one hand, respect…hold on, I think that’s it.”

June 10 Notes Versus Actual Results

Because they’re one of the two teams I actually follow, they got a long section in the June 10 edition, the meat of which read like so: “That’s a lot of zero-sum soccer in one month’s time and, bluntly, I don’t like the odds. Four points doesn’t strike me as nuts, and I dream of six, but dreams take place beyond our reach for a reason. Turning to the good news, the teams directly below Cincy – Inter Miami FC and Charlotte FC – both have equally challenging stretches.” That pretty much held up, in that Cincinnati remains above the playoff line, if only just, despite going a weird 1-1-5 over that stretch.

The Next Five/New(?) Theory: v NSH, @ MIA, v PHI, v ATL, @ RBNY

Shit. No rest for the wicked, or the Orange & Blue, I guess. I’d be delighted with seven points from that run, happy with six, but the blunt reality is, this team has to start winning games if they want to go anywhere – including the playoffs – and all the above are the exact kinds of games they’ll have to win to get there. You’re either diner or dinner, and never the twain shall meet.

Columbus Crew SC

Under Cincinnati because a fella can dream…

Theory as of 5/29

“I pegged them to shoot over a low bar going into the season and, so far, they’re part of a pack that seems primed to brawl in the space between, expansively, fourth and eleventh in the East. To Columbus’ credit, they followed a predictable home loss to LAFC with an unpredictable home win away to Atlanta. If there’s a team to how I read the Eastern Conference, I just paraphrased.”

June 10 Notes Versus Actual Results

I called Columbus “the team with the best chance of catching up,” and I typed that same phrase before I’d even heard of Cucho Hernandez. They’re an unbeaten 3-0-4 since and with three wins in their past five, though, in fairness they very much punched against their middling weight. A good run, basically, but most of that came against their peers, as opposed to the higher orders.

The Next Five/New(?) Theory: v NE, @ CLT, v MTL, v NYC, @ COL

Huh. We will get a real good measure of this team over the next five games. Anything respectable out of that – which, here, means seven points or better – the rest of MLS should start minding Columbus again.

Charlotte FC

Theory as of 5/29

“Yep. I think it’s safe to say Charlotte has succeeded their coach’s and everyone else’s expectations to this point. Worst case, the data says they won’t embarrass themselves. Best case remains up in the air.”

June 10 Notes Versus Actual Results

I read a tricky schedule and a shock coaching change as an expectation Charlotte would slip – and they did slip under the playoff line – but they also went 3-3-1 against a respectable schedule and sit just one point (and FC Cincinnati) below the playoff line.

The Next Five/New(?) Theory: @ TFC, v CLB, v DC, v CHI, @ LAFC

I give them a good shot at points in every one of those games, except LAFC away. Anything north of seven should make it into most people’s notes.

Inter Miami CF

Better than I expected, honestly, and I’m still open to surprises from them.

Theory as of 5/29

“So, yeah, Miami got seven points of nine out of that run. And that lifted them to sole possession of 7th in the Western Conference. Again, THOSE games did. Miami doesn’t have a ton of wins this season – in fact, and literally, half the teams in the league have more wins – but they have punched some now-free points out of teams they should not have. The more they get out of teams they should, the more Phil Neville looks like a good bet/antidote to their roster fuck-ups.”

June 10 Notes Versus Actual Results

I noted a tough stretch and, yeah, it nibbled ‘em a bit. Still, thanks to a home record that held up against everything except Philly, Miami sits just two points out of the playoff picture – i.e., they have remained competitive enough to matter. Something they’ve done for much of the season.

The Next Five/New(?) Theory: @ NYC, v CIN, @ SJ, @ MTL, v NYC

Jeezus. Looks like the Flamingos have nothing but more to prove over the next five games. To throw out a number, it’ll take getting six points out of that stretch – and probably one or two more to make up the ground.

Los Angeles Galaxy

Whoever constructs their rosters should be fired. If it’s Vanney, he should be relieved of that duty.

Theory as of 5/29

“As much as it kind of gets lost in…I don’t know, their reputation(?), the Galaxy have hit my expectations for them so far this season.”

June 10 Notes Versus Actual Results

Fell short of some fairly conservative expectations, honestly; after hitting the front-end of the Post-June Break Break in the same, quiet stride – and that includes a 4-0 thrashing of Montreal at home – the Galaxy have lost four straight. And most of those results (especially the home losses to San Jose and Minnesota) don’t read well.

The Next Five/New(?) Theory: v ATL, @ FCD, @ SKC, v VAN, v SEA

The latest intelligence (which, for the record, too often comes from the same channel) describes a team at odds with itself. Still, in the grand scheme of everything, a good team gets something close to half of those points, while a promising one gets over half.

Colorado Rapids

An act of generosity combined with an over-correction. Wouldn’t be surprised to see them fall out in five games’ time.

Theory as of 5/29

“Colorado found the middle space in that prediction as if aiming for it. And they’re in a three-way tie for the most-minimally competent teams in the Western Conference as a result. Still good at home (5-1-2) and crappy on the road (0-5-1) as they’ve been for a couple, but do note they’ve played two more games at home. And that Nashville just kicked their asses.”

June 10 Notes Versus Actual Results

I have a genuinely inexplicable habit of overrating Colorado. Seriously, never trust a word I type about them. They went a tidy 1-2-3 since the June break and, against my default theory they’re reliably good at home, they went picked up just four points of nine since the June break.

The Next Five/New(?) Theory: @ SEA, @ RBNY, v MIN, v CLB, @ VAN

I heard they simplified their game in recent weeks – and they’ve gone three unbeaten, and with a clean win over the Galaxy thrown in – but that’s still a lot of road in their next five, they’re 0-6-3 on the road, and those home games are hardly gimmies. It’s hard to see them clawing back a three-point deficit....

Atlanta United FC

Because they can fuck a team up on their best days…but I hear rumors of dark moods…

Theory as of 5/29

“Atlanta got exactly one point from those two games and they’re two points below the playoff line in the Eastern Conference. As of now, I’d put their ceiling at one side or the other of the playoff line – i.e., a combination of needing to clean up their own backyard and needing some stumbles to come down from above."

June 10 Notes Versus Actual Results

I did not rate their chances – they had a lot of road games in tough venues, and they’re not great on the road – and, despite some respectable results (e.g., beating RSL at home and drawing NYCFC on the road), they hit the middle of middling with a 2-3-2 record.

The Next Five/New(?) Theory: @ LAG, @ CHI, v SEA, @ CIN, v RBNY

I fully expect more of the same, even if the particular team dynamics don’t follow the same narrative – e.g., about 1/3 of the points on offer, and more time close to the playoff line.

New England Revolution

I’ve waited for them to make the jump all season. They have not.

Theory as of 5/29

“The Revs got four points out of that, three where last year’s team should have (sadly), and one where they almost would have avoided it, but for Bruce Arena’s now-more-than-ever-seemingly-bizarre-choice of calling in the ‘high-end rejects’ noted above [Omar Gonzalez was on my mind; not sure about the other one]. At the same time, they rejoined the pack chasing the playoff line – and they’ve got a decent chance of gaining some more ground over the next 10 games. I wouldn’t write them off yet, not in the pending Saragosa Sea in the eddy of the East.”

June 10 Notes Versus Actual Results

After hitting the June break strong, the Revs haven’t won in five. They weren’t the easiest games/venues (@ VAN, v ORL, v CIN, @ NYC, @ PHI), but a good team gets more than four of 15 points out of that (and certainly doesn’t get outscored 6 goals to 9). Fortunately for them...

The Next Five/New(?) Theory: @ CLB, v TFC, @ ORL, v DC, @ TFC

If they can’t pick up seven-plus points from that run, I’d take that as a signal to put the Revs on the pay-no-mind list for 2022.

FODDER

San Jose Earthquakes

I give them the best chance of breaking out of Hell, fwiw.

Theory as of 5/29

“First, the Timbers suck, maybe right now, maybe longer, but that only underscored the meaning of San Jose avoiding of the above-mentioned risk of sinking. They lost at LAFC, but narrowly, they have one of the best forwards in MLS, and bravo Portland Timbers FO, and they’re presently filling in the blanks of my theory that the Timbers might miss the 2022 playoffs.”

June 10 Notes Versus Actual Results

Between Portland beating my expectations and San Jose failing to escape their terrible road form (noted in the June 10 post; they got a win at the Galaxy, but just two of the other nine), their fates have diverged, hallelujah...and just in time for San Jose’s visit to Portland this weekend.

The Next Five/New(?) Theory: @ POR, v RSL, v MIA, @ ATX, @ FCD

They’re still 5 points below the playoff line, a lot of ground to make up in the near-term. If they can make everything out of those two home games – not at all unreasonably – and pick off points in the other two they’d be pretty close to back to it.

Houston Dynamo FC

And yet this feels like the biggest swing. See notes on the next five games.

Theory as of 5/29

“And…the Dynamo got the three points and nothing more. And yet, they’re still hanging on the top-side of that three-way tie for 7th in the Western Conference (along with Minnesota and Colorado), and they’ve got some genuinely playoff-worthy wins this season – e.g., 2-0 over Nashville at home an 3-0 over the Galaxy at home. Both of those came recently enough to make a cautious soul hesitate before going all-in against Houston.”

June 10 Notes Versus Actual Results

I expected Houston to earn more points than my Portland Timbers....even if, factually, they played just three of seven of their last games at home. They also went 2-4-1, but they just rocked a W out of Houston. And they’re just two points below the playoff line.

The Next Five/New(?) Theory: v MIN, @ PHI, @ VAN, v MTL, @ COL

If I’m being honest, this looks like the stretch that kills whatever hope Houston had of playing past the last game of the regular season.

Chicago Fire FC

Had they not fallen so far, so early…but, remarkably, not 100% dead. Just mostly dead.

Theory as of 5/29

“The fact they got one point at Red Bull, and lost the next two games with just two goals scored, both against a slightly-less helpless Toronto team points to another season of suffering for a fan-base that has, by now, done penance for the sins of three teams and four local billionaires.”

June 10 Notes Versus Actual Results

They didn’t even matter. My only comment lumped them in with teams “that don’t score freely.” They’ve gone 4-3-0 since then, and with a couple impressive home wins (1-0 over Philly, 1-0 against the once-impressive Seattle), but they also got points they should, plus respectable results abroad.

The Next Five/New(?) Theory: @ VAN, v ATL, @ CLT, @ PHI, v NYC

Pretty damn tough, obviously, so anything better than five points – which, it bears noting, doesn’t help enough – should read as impressive, if mainly as a trap game for teams aspiring to the playoffs.

DC United

Theory as of 5/29

“Toronto gave only a pittance of relief, and DC lost the other two games, and by a margin of 6 goals allowed to one goal scored. My read was more optimistic than the actual outcome. I see an obscure future for them, and a dim one.”

June 10 Notes Versus Actual Results

I fairly reliably viewed them as the object of a soft schedule – i.e., the thing that would be acted upon, and to their detriment. And, sure enough, they went 1-4-1 over that period – and the way people talked up their draw at home versus Columbus says something about how some segment of the soccer community keeps pulling for DC to become a team again. And they’re dead last in the league, conference be damned.

The Next Five/New(?) Theory: v MTL, v ORL @ CLT, v RBNY, @ NE

I mean, what does being last mean besides not being very good anywhere? I see them getting somewhere between not much and not nearly enough over that stretch.

Sporting Kansas City

Theory as of 5/29

“The surprise win over Colorado (but was it?) doesn’t change the fact that Kansas City straight-up murdered my theory they’d be competent in 2022. Again, and for clarity’s sake, they’re only five points from clean inside the playoff line, but any team worth a shit gets at least four points from that run. The fact they just lost to Vancouver goes some way to deciding arrangements in the Western Conference basement.”

June 10 Notes Versus Actual Results

2-4-1 since the June break and, two decent wins aside, a lot of cookie would have to crumble to get SKC over the playoff line. That said, the surest way to start is by taking points off any and all of their Western Conference rivals.

The Next Five/New(?) Theory: v LAFC, v ATX, v LAG, @ ATX, v POR

........I don’t see a lot that happening, but it should change some narratives in the event it does.

Toronto FC

Theory as of 5/29

“Toronto got four points for that run, and, with just four points separating them from 19 points, aka, a clean step over the playoff line, I’m willing to throw them in the mix for the 2022 Eastern Conference mid-table melee, sponsored by Wendy’s. Not only is the East messy, I’m not even sure how far the schmutz sprawls.”

June 10 Notes Versus Actual Results

Eyeing a soft schedule, I thought I could see a pathway for Toronto to make up some ground, but they opted to set up camp, more or less, and light it on fire. They’ve gained four points from 21 available since the June break.

The Next Five/New(?) Theory: v CLT, @ NE, @ NSH, v POR, v NE

Eight points out and falling, I’m not sure it matters.

That’s how I line ‘em up. I’ll do it all over again after 25 games go into the books.