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| My understanding of the Loons' attack, a visual. |
Things have been good for the Loons lately...but have they been too easy?
Maybe? Arguably? But I’d think twice before hanging my hat on it. To start with the basics:
Minnesota United FC
Record/Basics: 10-8-4, 5-3-3- home, 5-5-1 away; 31 gf, 26 fa, + 5 goal differential
Last 10: WLLLWWWTWW (6-3-1, 2-0-2 home, 4-2-0 away; pretty damn easy on that last 5)
Oppo: @ FCD, v NYC, @ NE, @ MIA, @ LAG, v RSL, @ VAN, v SKC, v DC, @ HOU
What We Know About Them
Emmanuel “Bebe” Reynoso & The Loons, right, like one of those bands that vanishes behind a charismatic lead singer? It’s a little more than that, obviously, but Minnesota’s No. 10 tends to dominate conversations about the team – especially when they’re doing well. While that’s not wholly unjustified (I’ll get into it, or at least a theory of “it”), I also think of a Minnesota as a stubborn, pain-in-the-ass of a team, but also one that has legitimately competed over two of the past three seasons. Some famous names from even those past good teams have moved on – e.g., Jan Gregus, Ozzie Alonso, Christian Ramirez and Miguel Ibarra – but, some real mysteries aside, the replacements are doing better than fine (see above and, for Portland fans, look higher in the table). The Timbers are rolling in against a team with five wins in their past six games – even if said run got a boost from a combination of venue and opposition. Going the other way, they did an impressive amount of that good work on the road, something worth estimating in my mind.
To the surprise of no one, Reynoso leads them in every top-line attacking stat, but he gets good support from Finnish international, Robin Lod (6 g, 2a), and, so far as I know, regular soccer player Luis Amarilla (5g, 3a). They have a solid ‘keeper at the back in Canadian international Dane St. Clair, and Michael Boxall still leads a bruising defense. No less remarkably, they’ve sustained that run of form without more current notables like Romain Metanaire and (the talented, yet hard-to-place) Hassani Dotson.
Notes on Recent Form
What I saw from Minnesota in a combination of long-form viewing – there, I went with chunks of their home wins over Real Salt Lake (decent comparison) and DC United (useless, honestly, DC couldn’t tie on their own damn shoes) – plus box scores and highlight reels in their last five games paints a complicated picture. On the one hand, whether by assist-to-the-assist, assist or goal, Reynoso has lived up to the rumors in recent weeks. And, when Minnesota gets rolling, they really can fuck a team up; and, a little like the Timbers, they find their freest expression when teams let ‘em run. On the other hand, things I both saw and read gave an impression of a team that doesn’t always show all the way. It took several forms – a slow start against Sporting Kansas City, a nerve-jangling finale at home to Real Salt Lake, or a failure to bury a genuinely execrable DC team early and easily – but, to strain a metaphor, Minnesota’s play reminded me of a dimmer switch, something that could turn half on and half-off at different points in the same game.
On a numbers level, they tend to hold the ball a shade either over or under 50/50 – with the road win over Houston as an outlier (possession broke ~73/27) – and they’ve been a more non-combative, certainly, than I’d expect. They ran up respectable xG in three of the five games – the ones I watched, in particular (they posted 2.7 versus RSL and 1.9 versus DC) – and, overall, they give an impression of a team that wants to play, move the ball around, etc.. And I expect they’ll have to do it at home against the Timbers, in only because the Timbers won’t volunteer for the gig.
Maybe? Arguably? But I’d think twice before hanging my hat on it. To start with the basics:
Minnesota United FC
Record/Basics: 10-8-4, 5-3-3- home, 5-5-1 away; 31 gf, 26 fa, + 5 goal differential
Last 10: WLLLWWWTWW (6-3-1, 2-0-2 home, 4-2-0 away; pretty damn easy on that last 5)
Oppo: @ FCD, v NYC, @ NE, @ MIA, @ LAG, v RSL, @ VAN, v SKC, v DC, @ HOU
What We Know About Them
Emmanuel “Bebe” Reynoso & The Loons, right, like one of those bands that vanishes behind a charismatic lead singer? It’s a little more than that, obviously, but Minnesota’s No. 10 tends to dominate conversations about the team – especially when they’re doing well. While that’s not wholly unjustified (I’ll get into it, or at least a theory of “it”), I also think of a Minnesota as a stubborn, pain-in-the-ass of a team, but also one that has legitimately competed over two of the past three seasons. Some famous names from even those past good teams have moved on – e.g., Jan Gregus, Ozzie Alonso, Christian Ramirez and Miguel Ibarra – but, some real mysteries aside, the replacements are doing better than fine (see above and, for Portland fans, look higher in the table). The Timbers are rolling in against a team with five wins in their past six games – even if said run got a boost from a combination of venue and opposition. Going the other way, they did an impressive amount of that good work on the road, something worth estimating in my mind.
To the surprise of no one, Reynoso leads them in every top-line attacking stat, but he gets good support from Finnish international, Robin Lod (6 g, 2a), and, so far as I know, regular soccer player Luis Amarilla (5g, 3a). They have a solid ‘keeper at the back in Canadian international Dane St. Clair, and Michael Boxall still leads a bruising defense. No less remarkably, they’ve sustained that run of form without more current notables like Romain Metanaire and (the talented, yet hard-to-place) Hassani Dotson.
Notes on Recent Form
What I saw from Minnesota in a combination of long-form viewing – there, I went with chunks of their home wins over Real Salt Lake (decent comparison) and DC United (useless, honestly, DC couldn’t tie on their own damn shoes) – plus box scores and highlight reels in their last five games paints a complicated picture. On the one hand, whether by assist-to-the-assist, assist or goal, Reynoso has lived up to the rumors in recent weeks. And, when Minnesota gets rolling, they really can fuck a team up; and, a little like the Timbers, they find their freest expression when teams let ‘em run. On the other hand, things I both saw and read gave an impression of a team that doesn’t always show all the way. It took several forms – a slow start against Sporting Kansas City, a nerve-jangling finale at home to Real Salt Lake, or a failure to bury a genuinely execrable DC team early and easily – but, to strain a metaphor, Minnesota’s play reminded me of a dimmer switch, something that could turn half on and half-off at different points in the same game.
On a numbers level, they tend to hold the ball a shade either over or under 50/50 – with the road win over Houston as an outlier (possession broke ~73/27) – and they’ve been a more non-combative, certainly, than I’d expect. They ran up respectable xG in three of the five games – the ones I watched, in particular (they posted 2.7 versus RSL and 1.9 versus DC) – and, overall, they give an impression of a team that wants to play, move the ball around, etc.. And I expect they’ll have to do it at home against the Timbers, in only because the Timbers won’t volunteer for the gig.
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| Play it cool, wait for the moment. |
Personnel & Its Disposition
This was the fun bit, because there’s some weird, or at least unexpected, shit going on. Adrian Heath has reliably started his side in a 4-2-3-1: the four has been really stable – Kemar Lawrence, Boxall, Bakaye Dibassy and D. J. Taylor – while the three has generally been Franco Fragapane, Reynoso, and Bongokuhle Hlongwane, and the one, Amarilla; things get freaky, and arguably improbable, at the two because Heath has started Lod (Lod!) with Wil Trapp as defensive midfielders. And...they’ve basically gotten away with it. Moreover, if you look at Minnesota’s recent passing maps (e.g., the one against RSL), there may be a method to it: what Lod and Trapp lack in defensive bite, they make up for in long diagonals and through balls that break lines and put a back four under pressure in the blink of an eye. You can see the separation in real-time too: the Loons tend to leave an unusual amount of space between their back-four, plus one d-mid (Trapp, usually) and the guys running around up front. And, for what it’s worth, that strikes me as space a smart team could exploit.
It should go without saying that Reynoso makes the attack go, but it actually runs deeper: I’m sure he has his favorite places on the field, but, 1) I couldn’t make it out in my small sampling, and 2) Heath seems to give him license to look for the ball all over; the latter makes the point/origin of the attack fluid and that’s some tricky shit to manage. Blowing it up to the team level, Minnesota seems to like big switches and use them to good effect; isolating any of Hlongwane, Fragapane or Reynoso on the weak side (as they do) caused real problems in all the footage I watched. It’s a lot of individual stuff from there – e.g., Lawrence overlaps really well (he had a goal, an own-goal and an assist in the footage I watched) and those go up their right (i.e., right at Josecarlos Van Rankin), Boxall offers real presence at the back, and Amarilla is one of those mobile/combination-style forwards. More than anything else, at least that I saw, Minnesota tries to stretch teams first vertically, then horizontally – i.e., they get the ball to the top of the attacking third, then move the ball across to stretch the defense and/or isolate a fullback.
Now, Based on All That
I suspect Portland will default to making Minnesota take the game to them and that’s both fine and expected. I’m real worried about the method of attack just described above because Reynoso, in particular, is human whack-a-mole in the open field and he poses a triple-threat on his own (he can dribble, pass, or shoot), but both Fragapane and Hlongwane look like very live threats on the dribble and, so long as they can stir out of their slumber, Minnesota’s movement can be very active. Assuming both Fragapane and Lawrence start, the overload running at Portland’s right will weigh a ton. Despite the lack of support in front of it, Minnesota’s defense does a pretty good job of keeping the game in front of them and managing that; in the event an opposition attack does get behind, I saw Taylor mop up at least five breakthroughs in what little footage I watched. I expect a tough game in any case, but I expect something one step from Hell if Minnesota comes to play.
Oh, and I just found out the Timbers won’t have Eryk Williamson or Cristhian Paredes for this one. Also, shit.
Some Things I Hope to See the Timbers Do
1) Watch Yer Six, When the Ball Goes Wide
I’m very wary of the weak-side stuff noted above – i.e., the vertical line-breaking pass, followed by a quick switch to the far side – and how well Minnesota can attack places where Timbers are not. I’m not 100% sure how a team manages that – e.g., spread the defense a little wider? have one of the d-mids cheat to the weak side? – but I’m hoping Gio, et. al., have it sorted out.
2) Consider Judo
As noted in the penumbra above, the way Minnesota plays – or at least the way they play should they go with Lod/Trapp at the two again – leaves a big gap in the center of their attacking shape. If the Timbers can find a way to get the ball into that space, that should let them attack the way they want, i.e., they’ll be able to run at a back four, as opposed to trying to break one down. So, yeah, Portland should try to use that space, if/when/where it opens up.
3) Pressure Up the Gut
If Portland’s d-mids – which I assume will be Diego Chara and [other Timber] – can get pressure to Lod and Trapp, I like their chances against them. Better, and more likely, I’d assign Timbers forwards with the work of limiting both players’ time on the ball. If the Timbers can strangle Minnesota’s moves in the crib, that takes care of a lot of the rest. Maybe start Nathan Fogaca, assuming he’s ready to go, in order to ride out the storm, and then start inserting the regular forwards to see if you can’t win and/or tie the game?
I might have over-thought that last point (no, I definitely did), but that speaks to the dynamic I expect out of this game. All in all, if Minnesota shows up sleepy (as they have), I’m confident the Timbers will get at least a point. Assuming that happens, why settle for just one point?
On the other hand, I don’t expect that to happen, so, lace the shoes up right, fellas.
This was the fun bit, because there’s some weird, or at least unexpected, shit going on. Adrian Heath has reliably started his side in a 4-2-3-1: the four has been really stable – Kemar Lawrence, Boxall, Bakaye Dibassy and D. J. Taylor – while the three has generally been Franco Fragapane, Reynoso, and Bongokuhle Hlongwane, and the one, Amarilla; things get freaky, and arguably improbable, at the two because Heath has started Lod (Lod!) with Wil Trapp as defensive midfielders. And...they’ve basically gotten away with it. Moreover, if you look at Minnesota’s recent passing maps (e.g., the one against RSL), there may be a method to it: what Lod and Trapp lack in defensive bite, they make up for in long diagonals and through balls that break lines and put a back four under pressure in the blink of an eye. You can see the separation in real-time too: the Loons tend to leave an unusual amount of space between their back-four, plus one d-mid (Trapp, usually) and the guys running around up front. And, for what it’s worth, that strikes me as space a smart team could exploit.
It should go without saying that Reynoso makes the attack go, but it actually runs deeper: I’m sure he has his favorite places on the field, but, 1) I couldn’t make it out in my small sampling, and 2) Heath seems to give him license to look for the ball all over; the latter makes the point/origin of the attack fluid and that’s some tricky shit to manage. Blowing it up to the team level, Minnesota seems to like big switches and use them to good effect; isolating any of Hlongwane, Fragapane or Reynoso on the weak side (as they do) caused real problems in all the footage I watched. It’s a lot of individual stuff from there – e.g., Lawrence overlaps really well (he had a goal, an own-goal and an assist in the footage I watched) and those go up their right (i.e., right at Josecarlos Van Rankin), Boxall offers real presence at the back, and Amarilla is one of those mobile/combination-style forwards. More than anything else, at least that I saw, Minnesota tries to stretch teams first vertically, then horizontally – i.e., they get the ball to the top of the attacking third, then move the ball across to stretch the defense and/or isolate a fullback.
Now, Based on All That
I suspect Portland will default to making Minnesota take the game to them and that’s both fine and expected. I’m real worried about the method of attack just described above because Reynoso, in particular, is human whack-a-mole in the open field and he poses a triple-threat on his own (he can dribble, pass, or shoot), but both Fragapane and Hlongwane look like very live threats on the dribble and, so long as they can stir out of their slumber, Minnesota’s movement can be very active. Assuming both Fragapane and Lawrence start, the overload running at Portland’s right will weigh a ton. Despite the lack of support in front of it, Minnesota’s defense does a pretty good job of keeping the game in front of them and managing that; in the event an opposition attack does get behind, I saw Taylor mop up at least five breakthroughs in what little footage I watched. I expect a tough game in any case, but I expect something one step from Hell if Minnesota comes to play.
Oh, and I just found out the Timbers won’t have Eryk Williamson or Cristhian Paredes for this one. Also, shit.
Some Things I Hope to See the Timbers Do
1) Watch Yer Six, When the Ball Goes Wide
I’m very wary of the weak-side stuff noted above – i.e., the vertical line-breaking pass, followed by a quick switch to the far side – and how well Minnesota can attack places where Timbers are not. I’m not 100% sure how a team manages that – e.g., spread the defense a little wider? have one of the d-mids cheat to the weak side? – but I’m hoping Gio, et. al., have it sorted out.
2) Consider Judo
As noted in the penumbra above, the way Minnesota plays – or at least the way they play should they go with Lod/Trapp at the two again – leaves a big gap in the center of their attacking shape. If the Timbers can find a way to get the ball into that space, that should let them attack the way they want, i.e., they’ll be able to run at a back four, as opposed to trying to break one down. So, yeah, Portland should try to use that space, if/when/where it opens up.
3) Pressure Up the Gut
If Portland’s d-mids – which I assume will be Diego Chara and [other Timber] – can get pressure to Lod and Trapp, I like their chances against them. Better, and more likely, I’d assign Timbers forwards with the work of limiting both players’ time on the ball. If the Timbers can strangle Minnesota’s moves in the crib, that takes care of a lot of the rest. Maybe start Nathan Fogaca, assuming he’s ready to go, in order to ride out the storm, and then start inserting the regular forwards to see if you can’t win and/or tie the game?
I might have over-thought that last point (no, I definitely did), but that speaks to the dynamic I expect out of this game. All in all, if Minnesota shows up sleepy (as they have), I’m confident the Timbers will get at least a point. Assuming that happens, why settle for just one point?
On the other hand, I don’t expect that to happen, so, lace the shoes up right, fellas.
NICE post, Jeff!
ReplyDeleteNo S**t, It's been so long since I've seen an honest, detailed strategic write-up on an upcoming match.
Just sign me - Pathetically Grateful
Yay! (And thanks for reading!)
ReplyDelete