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| This, only drooling to stay interested. |
I don’t have a lot of say about FC Cincinnati’s 1-1 draw at TQL Stadium against Nashville SC, because what is there to say about more of the same? Cincy has now drawn six of their past eight game, enough to keep them alive, but too little to take them in a direction of any particular interest. The point kept them above the playoff line, and that’s nice, but they owe that somewhat to Charlotte’s surprise/loud choke at Toronto FC. Also, look who’s looming in the rearview (Chicago Fire FC; and to think I wrote them off just last Friday.)
Twenty-four hours passed between the time I half-watched the second half and the time just spent struggling to stay awake/interested and the main thing I want at this point is those 50 minutes back. The more I look at the xG lines the data-nerds traced onto the stats page, the more I wonder whether I’m clear on how those things work...and, I’ll be damned if that isn’t the last interesting thing I have to say.
Several Cincinnati players had good-to-great games – e.g., I continue to marvel at Obinna Nwobodo’s range, movement and soccer intelligence (man has Spider-sense, swear to gods), Ian Murphy should start so long as he’s fit, at least in my mind, and Brandon Vazquez scored another great goal and he’s already three goals above what would have made me happy (what? oh yeah, Nashville scored too...eh). A couple players didn’t do so hot – e.g., I have nothing but respect for Yuya Kubo, but he still holds the ball too damn long; I feel the same about Alvaro Barreal, he got a lucky, yet useful assist, but that doesn’t mean there’s a No. 10 shirt in his future – but that’s the game.
Cincy has...eleven games left (? that can’t be right, but I’ve counted three times and...fuck it; it’ll happen) to find another gear. A tough stretch of the season that started as somewhat inspirational – see the 1-1 draw at the Philadelphia Union and the 4-4 home draw/party versus New York City FC petered out into home draws versus Red Bull New York and (most of) the Vancouver Whitecaps and....pffft. After that, what else do you say? It’s not progress, it’s not failure; it’s stasis.
As much as I don’t want to look ahead to the rest of the season, I’m buggered for something else to talk about, so, let’s open up the Form Guide and look at how many of their remaining games look doable. Speaking solely for myself, I like their chances hosting Atlanta United FC (despite their capacity to randomly come alive), and hosting Charlotte FC and the San Jose Earthquakes strikes me as two more solid opportunities. So, aim for the sky and call that nine points and that gets Cincy to 37 points – i.e., close enough to the playoff line that they can see it. Had it not been for the past six weeks or so, I would have felt better at Chicago at home in the final game of the season; the same goes for Columbus Crew SC two weeks after the Atlanta game: it’s possible to wrap one’s head around Cincy getting three points out of either game – again, enough for 40 points – but, after the past eight enervating, it’s hard to see anything else but draws extending into a never-ending future.
Would a Sergio Santos who stayed healthy more than (throwing out a random number) 50 minutes have helped? Will Dominique Badji’s (presumed?) return make the attack more dangerous? Don't know and I rarely fuck around with counter-factuals, because what's the point? A couple blips aside – e.g., the 3-4 loss at Club du Foot Montreal and the aforementioned draw against NYCFC – Cincinnati’s defense has done all right, so I don’t see much room for improvement beyond a clean sheet or three. People who watch these things more closely almost certainly have better sense of Cincy’s options between today and the end of the 2022 regular season; all I can say is that it’s gonna take something.
Last but not least, I just made the mistake of rolling back through the past couple seasons to see where the playoff line cleaved between the saved and the damned. Once I pulled 2020 out of the sample (and may we always), I found an average of 48 points as the lowest total for reaching the promised land. Based on that, that puts 20 points between FC Cincinnati and doing something better than outright failing (i.e., finishing last) this season. On the plus side, I love Cincinnati’s chances of dodging the wooden, but didn’t think I’d miss actual results – aka, games where something actually happens, good or bad – so much. 30+ years of watching soccer have made me entirely comfortable with ties, but soccer haters aren’t all wrong about their capacity to kill joy and fun suck.
Big picture – because that’s the only interesting one on offer after this game - on their current pace (i.e., one (aching) point per game), Cincinnati will stall at 40 points, aka, so close but still possibly eight points short of a total likely to be of any use. Four wins might get them there, but who wouldn’t want five wins for safety’s sake, not to mention entertainment’s? I’ve always liked the saying, “it beats a kick in the head,” and have often applied it to draws.........I might be willing to trade it in just so I can feel something, even if it's bad.
Twenty-four hours passed between the time I half-watched the second half and the time just spent struggling to stay awake/interested and the main thing I want at this point is those 50 minutes back. The more I look at the xG lines the data-nerds traced onto the stats page, the more I wonder whether I’m clear on how those things work...and, I’ll be damned if that isn’t the last interesting thing I have to say.
Several Cincinnati players had good-to-great games – e.g., I continue to marvel at Obinna Nwobodo’s range, movement and soccer intelligence (man has Spider-sense, swear to gods), Ian Murphy should start so long as he’s fit, at least in my mind, and Brandon Vazquez scored another great goal and he’s already three goals above what would have made me happy (what? oh yeah, Nashville scored too...eh). A couple players didn’t do so hot – e.g., I have nothing but respect for Yuya Kubo, but he still holds the ball too damn long; I feel the same about Alvaro Barreal, he got a lucky, yet useful assist, but that doesn’t mean there’s a No. 10 shirt in his future – but that’s the game.
Cincy has...eleven games left (? that can’t be right, but I’ve counted three times and...fuck it; it’ll happen) to find another gear. A tough stretch of the season that started as somewhat inspirational – see the 1-1 draw at the Philadelphia Union and the 4-4 home draw/party versus New York City FC petered out into home draws versus Red Bull New York and (most of) the Vancouver Whitecaps and....pffft. After that, what else do you say? It’s not progress, it’s not failure; it’s stasis.
As much as I don’t want to look ahead to the rest of the season, I’m buggered for something else to talk about, so, let’s open up the Form Guide and look at how many of their remaining games look doable. Speaking solely for myself, I like their chances hosting Atlanta United FC (despite their capacity to randomly come alive), and hosting Charlotte FC and the San Jose Earthquakes strikes me as two more solid opportunities. So, aim for the sky and call that nine points and that gets Cincy to 37 points – i.e., close enough to the playoff line that they can see it. Had it not been for the past six weeks or so, I would have felt better at Chicago at home in the final game of the season; the same goes for Columbus Crew SC two weeks after the Atlanta game: it’s possible to wrap one’s head around Cincy getting three points out of either game – again, enough for 40 points – but, after the past eight enervating, it’s hard to see anything else but draws extending into a never-ending future.
Would a Sergio Santos who stayed healthy more than (throwing out a random number) 50 minutes have helped? Will Dominique Badji’s (presumed?) return make the attack more dangerous? Don't know and I rarely fuck around with counter-factuals, because what's the point? A couple blips aside – e.g., the 3-4 loss at Club du Foot Montreal and the aforementioned draw against NYCFC – Cincinnati’s defense has done all right, so I don’t see much room for improvement beyond a clean sheet or three. People who watch these things more closely almost certainly have better sense of Cincy’s options between today and the end of the 2022 regular season; all I can say is that it’s gonna take something.
Last but not least, I just made the mistake of rolling back through the past couple seasons to see where the playoff line cleaved between the saved and the damned. Once I pulled 2020 out of the sample (and may we always), I found an average of 48 points as the lowest total for reaching the promised land. Based on that, that puts 20 points between FC Cincinnati and doing something better than outright failing (i.e., finishing last) this season. On the plus side, I love Cincinnati’s chances of dodging the wooden, but didn’t think I’d miss actual results – aka, games where something actually happens, good or bad – so much. 30+ years of watching soccer have made me entirely comfortable with ties, but soccer haters aren’t all wrong about their capacity to kill joy and fun suck.
Big picture – because that’s the only interesting one on offer after this game - on their current pace (i.e., one (aching) point per game), Cincinnati will stall at 40 points, aka, so close but still possibly eight points short of a total likely to be of any use. Four wins might get them there, but who wouldn’t want five wins for safety’s sake, not to mention entertainment’s? I’ve always liked the saying, “it beats a kick in the head,” and have often applied it to draws.........I might be willing to trade it in just so I can feel something, even if it's bad.
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