FC Cincinnati Preview: Bring Your Running Shoes, the Good Ones

Lace 'em tight, stay frosty.

Club du Foot Montreal have a new crest (eh), and a solid run over the past 10 games, going 6-2-2 and against reasonably spry opposition. They lost a step on the back end of the 10, going 3-2-0; fwiw, they got home wins over Atlanta and Orlando, plus one on the road over Charlotte, but they lost away to Nashville…and then at home last weekend against Real Salt Lake. And one can make a reasonable argument that RSL outplayed them. So…what looms largest, a 6-2-2 recent record or the one oddball loss that goes against it?

I’ll start with this: Montreal doesn’t run the tightest ship at the back. They’ve allowed at least one goal in every game except that win over Charlotte. They’ve also scored above the league average (which I put at 17.5; Montreal has 24), which makes me think FC Cincinnati has another track meet on tap for this weekend. That’s not unusual for these Montreal v Cincy: they played to a 4-3 game with Cincinnati at home and on the losing end, which repeated another game in 2021, when they played the same venue (right?) with the Orange and Blue coming out at the wrong end of a 5-4 final score.

That’s the past, because a couple things have changed since even that last meeting – e.g., the arrival of Obinna Nwodobo and a fully-functioning midfield (with Junior Moreno). So, first question: can Cincinnati’s overall defensive shape/personnel keep Montreal to one or zero goals? I lean toward yes, but with some caveats and caution signs. Montreal has some sharp players working the width/channels – e.g., Djordje Mihailovic (assuming he’s not gone yet…The Mothership is behind on the availability info) and Lassi Lappalainen on their left and Alistair Johnston and Joaquin Torres on the right – and they spread the field nicely and play into the internal channels or to the far post according to the space they have. It’s a decent system, even if RSL bottled it up pretty nicely.

Against that methodology, the way Cincy plays its fullbacks – I assume Pat Noonan goes Alvas Powell and John Nelson again – looms larger than normal (also relevant: I think I say this every time). I hope they go a little conservative, at least on one side, and rely more on the fullbacks playing into Moreno and Nwobodo then out to Dominique Badji and (again, I assume) Alvaro Barreal, respectively, to work the ball up the field. I don’t mind either fullback taking chances once the ball is high, but hope they don’t hand Montreal any gifts, especially breaks behind the fullbacks inside Cincy's half. It’s not that Montreal can’t push up the gut, and Victor Wanyama does make his share of late runs to the top of the area, but he mostly seems to sit deep and coordinate, with the forward momentum happening on either side of him. That said, Montreal can change that up by calling in Kei Kamara, King of Journeymen, to act as a battering ram later in the game; that’s against Romell Quioto, who strikes me as just another guy they play into space.

Colorado Rapids 3-3 Portland Timbers: Of Snow & Fortunate Deflections

Just do your best out there, guys. We fucked ya up goin' in.

The Department of Cross-Platform Corrections will open this post by announcing that, after further review, Axel Sjoberg’s not-quite-goal-saving handball was deliberate. (During the game, I tweeted that I wouldn’t have called it, but watch his hand (over and over); yes, the VAR got it right.) Moving on now, to the Ministry of Justice, given that either of two Portland Timbers players could have nodded home Sjoberg’s naughty deflection, part of me would have just taken the goal and moved on. Back in this timeline, the shock-collar “tickled” Drew Fischer (that’s what they use right?), alerting him to matter of controversy (Sjoberg’s handball), and, after review, the whole thing ended up with red card for the Colorado Rapids and the Timbers wound up with a penalty kick.

Diego Valeri scored it, the game ultimately ended 3-3, and all the above wasn’t even the weirdest thing that happened some miles removed from Denver, Colorado yesterday. If nothing else, it snowed like goddamn crazy, but, to lick the brassiest of brass tacks, had you given 1,000 Timbers fans the top-level scenario for yesterday’s game – e.g., a high-scoring draw in Colorado and with snow falling – and asked them whether or not they’d call it a good result, I put the number of “yes” answers at or around 2/3 of respondents. (Sharper question: would that number go up or down immediately after the game and with all respondents 4+ drinks in?) As with what we shall henceforth call Sjoberg’s Goal (MLS’s/Kant’s answer to Schrodinger’s Cat), would you get different answers from those 1,000 Timbers fans had you watched that game with each of them and then asked them afterwards how they felt? (Focus groups = Group-think. Also, fluoride.)

Cold weather games are almost always memorable, in that they borrow a central principle from hockey – i.e., putting as many obstacles as possible in the way of success (e.g., “here are some skates, here’s a stick; now, go chase piece of frozen rubber around a sheet of fucking ice, I said do it!”; I finally get why hockey players are so fucking angry). Snow counts as the most unnatural, recurring condition for soccer, because it makes all the players run using weird, choppy strides, and guys slip all over the place…but does snow typically cause ‘keepers to cough up that many rebounds? It took reviewing the highlights to fully absorb the reality that half of yesterday’s goals came off rebounds. (So, to you kids watching at home, your coach isn’t full of shit when he tells you to follow up on shots. A lot of it’s bullshit, but that one’s real.)

All in all, though, is there anything real to take away from this game, or was it dog-pile of X-factors and the toddler-esque beginning of any regular season? For all the commentary on snow, both teams played a recognizable and accepted version of soccer out there. Sure people looked a little clumsy from time to time – one of them being Benny Feilhaber’s equalizer – but they moved the ball to where they wanted it to go and, deep as the powder got during the game, it didn’t stop the Rapids from scoring its second, the game’s third equalizer. The snow mattered, but it didn’t really.

Portland Timbers 1-2 Vancouver Whitecaps: Sorrow, Joy, Perseverance

Now, if he farted right there, it changes everything...

You know that idea where something is “due,” that sort of law of averages principle that something will change, if only because it can’t go on forever? Think that’s called “the gambler’s fallacy,” but I’m not looking it up, because, yolo.

The Portland Timbers were always going to lose a game at some point - even a game at home - but, as with the gambler’s fallacy (again, assuming that’s the phrase), that doesn’t make any more sense of last night’s 1-2 loss tothe Vancouver Whitecaps than chalking it up to The Butterfly Effect. That movie was shit, but I don’t think anyone watched it last night, and that leaves fans looking for other causes.

To name mine, I couldn’t six Timbers - this is just the starters or thereabouts - who played solid games last night: Diego Chara, David Guzman, Zarek Valentin, Alvas Powell, Sebastian Blanco, and, happiest note for me, Andy Polo. In a more generous mood, I’d add Julio Cascante to that list for his several moments of top-notch, one-on-one defending, it’s also impossible to credit a back (really?) four that “team-fucked-up” once, and gave Vancouver as many clear looks as it did. I’d also argue that, for all its gaffes - even the gaffiest gaffe of gaffes by the typically gaffe-free Jeff Attinella (dude…) - those mattered less to the overall outcome than Portland’s unfocused, molasses-laced execution for most of the first half, and its jitters-ridden, yet shockingly effective, attack in the second half.

To turn, now, to the names not listed above, here’s a lot of what happened: Diego Valeri missed a bread-and-butter chance (no highlight, sadly), plus a brutally-timed miss on a penalty kick, but, most importantly, the ‘Caps feasted on picking the ball off his toe on the inlet passes to breakdown Vancouver’s defense; Samuel Armenteros couldn’t find the game and Dairon Asprilla has no game, at least not beyond sweating green-and-gold out there - which is nice and all, but instead of getting excited when the ball falls to Dairon in a good spot, I’m mostly curious as to the precise way he’s going to fuck up the shot. In light of all the above, it felt a little like surrender when Armenteros came off just after the half, but that wound up being…if not the right move, then a right move. Polo gave the team more width (his two runs from wide made the ‘Caps spreads out, if only for a while (example)), and that finally got the Timbers attack rolling.

Match Notes: Colorado Rapids v. Columbus Crew SC

Why I Watched It:

Because, as a blogger, I understand how important it is to have someone paying attention to what you’re doing. Here's to you, Columbus Crew SC. And, cheers, the Colorado Rapids.

Overall:
It was more fun than Seattle v. LA, certainly, sort of the middleweight bout to their heavyweight affair: more movement, more foot-work, more punches thrown. Probably less confidence out there, too, which can be a useful spur. When the play-by-play guy (don't care about his name) said to Marcelo Balboa that this game had "0-0 written all over it," I laughed right along with 'Celo. Especially after he said that immediately after Columbus literally hit the crossbar twice inside a second. This was a damned even affair, all in all, even if one weighted with prior thoughts and assumptions about both teams, among them: did Columbus finally come out on top of the offense-v.-defense argument (as in, they won) because Colorado's sorry offense couldn't push their iffy defense hard enough? (Probably.) What does it mean that the Rapids kept pressing and nearly equalized to the very end? (That Columbus' defense is probably as bad as it seems.) And this means Columbus can score against anyone, right? (Going with "yes" on this one.) All in all, count this a good, necessary win for Columbus. As for Colorado...I'm sensing a theme.

Notes on Colorado
- Axel Sjoberg, good as he is, got worked hard enough by Kei Kamara tonight to pick up a couple yellas. More below.
- This will sound shitty, but still: in spite of making two outstanding saves last night, I think Clint Irwin is shaky, both as a shot-stopper and on the distribution end of things. He has a very good defense in front of him. They can do better. I'm pretty sure.
- Jared Watts did very well tonight. He didn't carry the game to Columbus, but he acquitted himself very well as an omnipresent #8 (maybe; #6?), and dished the ball well and safely. Yeah, yeah, I rip Timbers players for the same, but Watts is a stand-in...
- ...though, curiously, with two of the regulars present and accounted for: both Marcelo Sarvas and Sam Cronin started….about where Watts did. There's a line-up question in there that may or may not address the Rapids' iffy offense.
- This team is a mystery, full stop. Whatever my misgivings, the team Pablo Mastroeni trotted out worked well and his substitutions made enough sense, and the Rapids pushed all the way to the final whistle – as in, really pushed. Their players did smart things in the attack, and...well, it just didn't work out, did it? So...beats me...

Notes on Columbus
- The way they insist on playing out of the back is just vanity at this point. Much more on Tuesday.
- Kamara is such a pain in the ass, that he got a good, if rookie, defender sent off. Damn.
- Tony Tchani was an absolute fucking beast tonight. He fed Kamara for the first goal, played the ball to Christian Jimenez that set up Crew SC's second, while also holding down all kinds of shit defensively all over the field. Am I saying heir apparent to Kyle Beckerman? Yes, I am. Dammit! I need a bigger platform for this...
- I like that they did the rotation thing, putting in Kristinn Steindorsson in order to spell Justin Meram. MLS has a long, dumb season. A big part of getting your best players on the field at the End Times comes with knowing who's your best player. So, test that shit.
- And give Federico Higuain a turn. He looks old as my dad's dad.
- Wil Trapp is faster than I thought. He's another one to watch...just, y’know, glance outside Germany, Jurgen.
- OK, with Tchani and Trapp shielding the back four, how is Columbus this dodgy defensively?

Columbus Crew 2015 Preview: Attack with Deer-Like Fury!

A better approach. (Credit: kilo943fm.com)

What Happened Last Year
The Columbus Crew – remember when they went by that name, y'know, way back? – started strong last season. They put a big hurt on eventual Eastern Conference champs, DC United, in the first week, a result pretty much every dismissed at the time, courtesy of DC’s epically awful 2013. When the Crew shocked the Seattle Sounders, in Seattle, that was something else – perhaps even topping power rankings something else (not checking; lazy). Then games 5-19 happened and, suddenly, a flash-in-the-pan funk clung to the Crew. And then came the close, when the Crew went 10-3-2 (see previous link) to end the season, when people remembered how much they liked them all along. I swear this is the quintessential experience of being from Ohio...Anyway, Columbus hit the playoffs hot as any MLS club – except the New England Revolution. The Revs ended the argument about who was hottest by handing every member of the Crew two heads in Columbus in the first leg of their playoff series. In spite of the ignominious ending, good things happened in Ohio in 2014: Ethan Findley had a breakout season; Tony Tchani raised his game damned high; Michael Parkhurst anchored a pretty sound backline; newly-arrived 'keeper Steve Clark proved one of the finds of the offseason, etc. etc. So, no, it wasn’t ideal. But it wasn’t bad either.
Final Stats: 14-10-10, 52 pts., 3rd in the East; 54 gf, 42 ga

Who's Winning the 2014-15 Off-Season: Part 2...Think of Burning

Because what's funnier than Nazis?

Welcome to the 2nd installment of "Who's Winning the 2014-15 Major League Soccer (MLS) Off-Season"...which really needs a snappier title. Working on it...

Last week's edition crowned Columbus Crew SC the early winners. Even as I’m starting to question that call – see below – it was, and is, defensible. Ives Galarcep talked it up enough in a recent podcast that I can at least argue that it’s not a completely lonely position to take.

So, before getting into the back-sliding, let me remind readers of my personal criteria for weighing new and new-to-you players who come into MLS:

A star DP > MLS player of good reputation > a foreign acquisition with a respectable CV > a known MLS squad hack > a homegrown player > players acquired through the Superdraft.

Plenty of players have come into MLS since that last post (dated, January 18, 2015), none bigger than Sebastian Giovinco. He’s the big ol' shit, the inspiration for chatter and that annual heartbreaking optimism that Toronto FC fans cling to every season until hope, as always, abandons them. Other moves abound, whether intra-MLS transfers, players re-signing with last year's club (probably after a pay-cut), or foreign players with smaller names coming in from solid,  yet less-heralded, European leagues. And players keep coming to New York City FC and Orlando City – which are just like new toys that we all get to share somehow. In short, it's been a good off-season.

And yet I find myself having to walk back last week's awarding of first place to Columbus. It's much less about anything the Ohio club has done, or failed to do. Hell, they even brought in (another) fullback in Hernan Grana, which is enough to make one wonder if anyone will play centrally for that club (of course, someone will…I mean, someone has to).

No, it's about a total failure on my part (shit, again with the retractions!) to fully consider what the Chicago Fire has done since the 2014 season ended. For me, this is a little secret of the MLS off-season: Chicago has rolled over a lot of their team (see the "Out" column on the very first line). And, well, here's to hoping a lot of those come good...if only for Chicago's sake.

Before turning to Chicago, please allow a couple comments. First, the East is winning the off-season hands-down. They're more active, they're digging up more interesting players (see the above personal criteria), and more of them. Yes, this is a function of being the lesser conference in 2014 (fronting), but it's still true (see: Andy Craven and Kyle Bekker...who looks like an extra from Hogan's Heroes (which is on, one channel another, without stopping....ever)

Second, Toronto FC seems the obvious choice to overtake Columbus, what with all those very, very expensive signings. Personally impressed as I am with the Giovinco signing, Toronto has serious issues with balance...at least until they sign that Polish defender. Even then, I might not buy their overall project. Bekker going seems like a loss, even if he is/was a project, but I also think Jonathan Osorio gives them enough of something similar that he won't be missed. Anyway, give TFC a second central defender, plus an outside back who can flip, and Toronto crushes the off-season.

So, Chicago. Here's the thing for me: They have all but rebuilt their front-line, bringing in no less than three at least intriguing forwards. Add the...let’s call it the apparent signing of Wigan Athletic's Shaun Maloney (NOTE: not yet on the roster), and the Fire's attack is, according to my criteria, much transform'ed. What I missed before with Chicago is what had me lean toward Columbus: while the Fire had clearly stacked up their attack, virtually all of this came at the forward position; this meant they hadn't done much to improve a defense and/or midfield that was, at times, iffy and/or a collection of parts in 2014. With that in mind, Columbus' latest acquisitions (Kristin Steindorsson and Chris Klute) read like tidy fits for their system. Throw a great far-post attacker like Kei Kamara on top of the team they already had and things looked pretty sunny in Central Ohio.

In fairness, Chicago added a fair number of unknowns – i.e., guys listed in the third spot for my personal criteria (e.g. "foreign acquisitions with a good CV"). That makes them unknowns, of course, which means they should probably get "doubt" before they get the "benefit" therefrom. Then came, apparently, Shaun Maloney. Yeah, there are issues with what to do with a guy like Harrison Shipp (hat-tip: March to the Match's (tragically) final podcast), but Chicago is trying hard enough and seeking enough upgrades all over the field for me to believe they're really aiming to climb out of their personal Hell in the 2015 season. To personify my oversights in the form of player names, I only caught Adailton when I reviewed the Fire's off-season, but failed to see, say, Joevin Jones' arrival.

I don't know what to expect from Chicago this season, but, goddammit, they're trying. Harder than the entire Western Conference, anyway. So, good luck, The Fire...