MLS Week 31 Preview: The Battle for the East

Dreamin'.....

And so the calendar rolls into MLS Week 31…more or less. As with most things, MLS refuses to measure/organize the progression of its season in keeping with real-world practices. I wanted to briefly preview – or, better, frame – this weekend’s games. Because the whole thing about a dogfight in Gresham versus a revolution in China, I’m going to start local.

The Portland Timbers host FC Dallas this Saturday and, as noted in last week’s Form Guide ULTRA, this game ranks pretty highly in my personal order of importance (here, for easier checking on the notes below, is the official Form Guide). It’s a home game, of course, – and that matters with only two left – but a win here offers real, potentially enduring positives. Beating The Cream of the Western Conference (well, this week) will puff some wind in our sails and (big stretch!), who knows? Maybe the confidence will carry Portland an extra step when it counts. More than that, though, a win here sends the Timbers into the rest of its regular season with some a little more padding. Y’know, for safety? So…what are the chances?

While Dallas is hardly on fire (4-3-3), Portland’s ass keeps bumping the ground lately. Sure, the team has been perfect at home over its last 10 games (3 wins!), but those are, 1) the only three wins over that time, and 2) those came against Toronto FC, the Colorado Rapids and (better) Columbus Crew SC. Further complicating matters, Sebastian Blanco (aka, One-Man, Two-Way Kickass Squad) is suspended for the occasion; there are no other significant, or at least not surprising, absences for either team. Having suffered a choking period of their own, Dallas isn’t exactly flying into this game, but they’re comfortably in the top half of defense teams – not great for Portland’s fitful (now Blanco-less) attack – and Dallas transition very quickly, often isolating fullbacks in particular with the kind of long balls that stretch defenses. Oh, and they’re not slouches on set-pieces either. All in all…sigh. For what it’s worth, I think Portland can get all three points…it’s just that I think a draw, goal-less or otherwise, feels more likely.

If Maximiliano Urruti who shivs us…love the guy, but…damn. Just damn. OK, on to the rest of ‘em!

After looking at the weekend’s match-ups, I decided to call Week 31 The Battle for the East. That’s no exaggeration (well, outside being an actual exaggeration), because three games have potential to move things in significant directions. [Ed. - Obviously, all this comes in the context of a league that enforces both parity and an aggressively generous playoff system - i.e., to miss the playoffs is to fuck up enough to disappoint your dad, and have two of his friends mock him. Your mom will always be there for you, pumpkin.] To take them in no particular turn:

DC United v. Montreal Impact

Montreal could have drawn blood against a limping New York City FC side last weekend, but they opted to just draw 1-1 instead. Even though they’re 5 points below Montreal, that’s just the first advantage DC carries into this game. It’s at home, for one (where they are 6-1-1 in their last 10 games, and 8-2-2 overall), but, with a bye week behind them, DC is also rested. The Wayne Rooney/Luciano Acosta tandem is something else too, especially against a Montreal team that…isn’t great on the road. The Impact is, on the other hand, are better lately, and they know their judo (i.e., let the larger opponent lunge, that is when you unbalance him) better than most team in MLS. Who wins this one? I’d call it a total crapshoot.

New York Red Bulls v. Atlanta United FC

I lied: I’m more excited about the game above than this one, even though I think this one will be better in every single way. Four points separate the Red Bulls from Atlanta in the Supporters’ Shield race and, because I know you know how math works, I’ll leave it there. Overall, though, this is a Battle Royale of a league-scheduler’s wet dream: both team are good, either of them could win, it’s got “goals-galore” potential. I could also call this a game with no favorite, and I could lie too. With the Red Bulls not scoring as freely as they did, and no Bradley Wright-Phillips, Atlanta has a solid chance to all but kill of the Shield race.

Columbus Crew SC v. Philadelphia Union

With Philly kicking ass and taking names everywhere they go, it feels like the expected advantages wash away in this game. The way both teams emphasize possession makes this hard to call. In Columbus’ favor, they’ve been lights-out at home lately, and against a 6/4 ratio of good teams. On Philly’s plus-side, they just recorded two consecutive wins against the Seattle Sounders and Sporting Kansas City, two of the biggest teams in the West. A win vaults Philly over Columbus, and that would make an arrestingly plausible statement on where both of these teams are. Going the other way, a Columbus win would say a lot more than a draw.

If I had to put money on Columbus v. Philly - or either of the other two games above - I’d leave that Den of Sin immediately and join the Salvation Army.

The West has its share of big games: Seattle gets one of your better shots at redemption when they host the Colorado Rapids, while the Los Angeles Galaxy v. Vancouver Whitecaps FC should give us all a little more clarity on their divided situations. A Vancouver win would register as a whimper of defiance, if one that could lead to better things, while LA has a real shot at creating a perceptual upswing at the very least (having won large against Seattle last weekend). If Seattle loses…just holy shit (and I’d call the death-spiral real). I don’t think they will and, in that context, I’d read more into an LA win - especially a big one – because that would make slips by any of Seattle, Portland, or Real Salt Lake that much closer to fatal.

Uh, what else? Do I even mention that the Houston Dynamo are playing the San Jose…yeah, fuck it…

Even within local climes, Sporting KC v. Real Salt Lake looms larger than it does at first glance. First, to anyone who hasn’t looked ahead, the Timbers have two games against RSL between now and the end of 2018. As such, anything that kicks against their confidence and number of points at the same time helps the Timbers. In both SKC’s and Portland’s favor, RSL is, historically, pretty damn bad on the road. Things are a little more complicated for SKC: they’ve padded their record of their last 10 games (6-4-0) with three wins over soft teams in favorable situations (e.g., Minnesota and Orlando at home, San Jose away); tempting as it is to lump RSL in that same soft/favorable dynamic, they had a really great run before their last two games, and both of those results, while not favorable, didn’t put real questions to rumors of an upswing. It’s either team’s game, but with an edge to SKC; what I’d watch for here is a SKC loss.

Below the games above lurks a mess of games that don’t quite matter, or at least not to both teams. Also, sadly, there’s not a lot of spoiling going on either. For instance, if Los Angeles FC doesn’t beat the Chicago Fire - and wherever they meet (happens to be North of Chicago) - it doesn’t make the Fire suck any less, it just raises questions of whether or not LAFC sucks. The same goes for Minnesota United FC v. NYCFC: with Minnesota done, the most interesting possible that could come out of this would be stirring victory for NYCFC. The thing you’re watching for, in any case, is either of MLS’s nouveau richies (LAFC and NYCFC) club losing. More signs of fragility for either would change perceptions going forward.

And, to wrap up with the second saddest match-up of the weekend (you can’t beat Houston v. SJ for sheer pointlessness in 2018), when Toronto FC hosts the New England Revolution, no one outside of either metro area should have any reason to care about how that ends. At best, New England can get a better hold around the thread they’re hanging by, but I don’t think they buy much with the three points. Toronto, meanwhile, can’t buy enough to do salvage the season, at least not according to my math.

Think that’s all of ‘em. Enjoy the weekend, people. And, c’mon, Portland!