MLS 2019: Benchmarks for the Form Guide ULTRA

Best to use caution, yes?

When she watches Jeopardy!, my wife has this tic of guessing the answer to Final Jeopardy! based solely on the category. If the category is “American Poets,” she’ll blurt out, say, “Edgar Allan Poe” before the question goes up (that’s her answer across several categories, actually). She’s gotten the answer right a few times (including Gandhi once, and without knowing he spent time in South Africa; the actual question threw her), but, in over 15 years of marriage, she’s swung wildly and to nowhere hundreds, even thousands, of times. It feels like wasted thought, but it makes her happy. And I think it’s cute. Now, anyway. Regardless, no harm, no foul, etc.

That’s pretty much how I feel about “hot takes,” aka, the wild leaps of fancy that inflate a valid detail into a sweeping, long-shot prediction. They’re almost always wrong, but that just means you get to call yourself a prophet and/or genius if you land one. Call them the whispy path to what passes for glory in spectator sports, the weird high of “being right” nests in fan culture like lice in a child’s scalp, and they are harmless. Just remember they don’t really tell you much.

Anyway, I have hot takes on the mind because ExtraTime Radio’s 2019 preview was a fucking buffet of them. “The Year of Zlatan”? Look, I’m not calling it impossible; I’m saying there’s nothing out there to support but Zlatan Ibrahimovic’s ego and, sure, some very real talent. I’ll just wait to see whether he pulls it off. Because that’s how I roll.

The rest of this post offers up vague impressions of all 24 MLS teams as they head into the 2019 season in that spirit. The teams are ranked according to four broad categories: 1) Contenders (aka, teams who look up for winning a trophy); 2) Proven (aka, known quantities, likely for the playoffs); 3) Things to Prove (i.e., affects rebuilds, typically, but also “problems”); and 4) The Legion of the Wrong Kind of Doom, or the teams for whom I see no path to the post-season, never mind glory.

Now, why am I doing this? I’ll be tracking results through the regular season, just like I did in 2018 (looks like this, but it'll be different this season). The notes below provide initial baselines for every team in MLS, and, until the benevolent universe gives us data, I’ll be weighing their results through these assumptions. I’ll flesh out the mechanics at the end, but, bottom line, tracking results is a game of expectations. It doesn’t give you much in the early weeks, but, as the information fills in, and teams start to produce stats and develop tendencies, it becomes a pretty robust indicator for current form right around the second half of the season. That’s the theory, anyway.

FC Cincinnati, And the Fall Into MLS 2019

Hopes/dreams.

This preview as an expanded part of the larger project of offering my current best opinion/narrative on every team in Major League Soccer at the beginning of the 2019 regular season. That post will go up tomorrow (probably), and with much shorter entries for each of those teams – because I know less about them than I do FC Cincinnati, the subject of this post.

At the same time, I don’t have a deep, rich history with Ohio’s newest team. I only started watching them June 10, 2018 and, until just this past weekend, I had never seen them lose a game. Like nature in Jurassic Park, they always found a way…until they didn’t…

Preseason (domestic results only, and games that I watched): 1-1-0 

Even if I digested FC Cincinnati’s win over the Charleston Battery with a little more insouciance than justified, the fairly large part of me that hates being wrong larded that post with caveats. “It’ll get harder,” “Chicago is basically a USL team”: those are classic dodges, and I love them for it, but not even all of those psychically and emotionally-protective qualifiers prepared me for the full-eclipse darkness of what Columbus Crew SC…did to FC Cincinnati [a woman screams] in its final preseason game of its MLS existence (and I didn’t even get cool glasses).

As argued in the write-up, I interpreted Cincinnati’s win over Charleston as a reasonable result of having better individual players. To take two steps forward, I went into the game against Columbus with a headful of whispers that FC Cincy died over the first 70 minutes in the prior game against Chicago, but with more of a make-shift line-up (also, checks out). The team came back, I was told, on the strength of a rush of first-teamers and a wonder goal by Roland “Huzzah!” Lamah (look, just run with it, someone?). When the game against Columbus didn’t start so good, it all tracked as, “Columbus is better than Chicago, so this is expected, but, look! Lamah made a play! Green shoots!”

Trouble is, it never stopped looking not so good, and the green shoot got sent off for a two-footed tackle from behind. Cincinnati looked helpless before that, and utterly lost after it. Had Columbus played that game (and that game alone) for the kill, God help us. Or them. By which I mean FC Cincinnati. Here’s why:

The Portland Timbers, and The Fall Into 2019

The Seattle Super Junior Sounders!!

If you’ve followed my thoughts through the Portland Timbers’ 2019 preseason, you have seen the kinds of mood swings that get people talking about medication. This post will attempt to take all those disparate threads and tie them together into a coherent baseline understanding of where the Timbers seem to be going into the season. I’ll close out by identifying key mysteries and then wrap up by looking at Portland’s first 10 games – all of them on the road, of course - and projecting what I’d count as a good start to the 2019 season.

Preseason (domestic teams, only, and games that I watched): 2-1-1
The Timbers faced a useful collection of teams – e.g. (and in order), Seattle Sounders, the New York Red Bulls…Phoenix Rising (ah, the locus of my unhinging), and Real Salt Lake. Until that final, fluid win over RSL, where they played their starting set, Portland both played and faced some novel constructions for line-ups. There was the 60/30 split that faced The Seattle Super Junior Sounders!, the three-headed (fucked up) mutation that lost to Phoenix, and, again, something like the starting set against a baby Red Bulls line-up. Looking back on them now, all those make more or less sense – as in, I’m starting to really like Giovanni Savarese as a coach – but I’m less interested in the results than I am in the ultimate return of a familiar sensation.

If you take out the Phoenix game (see: “the locus of my unhinging”), I kept repeating the same big picture thought: with some complicated exceptions – e.g., Julio Cascante and David Guzman (and a strong, present desire to never see Renzo Zambrano again) - most Timbers played well. By the RSL game, they looked loose and confident. No, better than that: they looked saucy, and with a healthy helping of the right kind of back-heels. Because those thoughts line up with my notes from the earliest games last season, I’m going into 2019 feeling pretty good. Here’s why:

Overall

The three Portland players listed in Bobby Warshaw’s article on the best five players in every position answer the question: so long as they have Diego Valeri, Sebastian Blanco and Diego Chara healthy and playing well, Portland will remain competitive. All three are league elite, they know one another very well, as well as how to make the most of the pieces around them. If any one of those three goes down, though…well, that’s when the pants fill up in all the wrong ways. Roster continuity papered over some cracks last year, no question, but I’d also argue that some pieces around them don’t get their portion of propers – e.g., Jeff Attinella, certainly, but also Larrys Mabiala, Zarek Valentin and Jorge Villafana. The bones are good, as they say. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t questions.

FC Cincinnati 0-3 Columbus Crew SC: A Collection of Negative Metaphors

Fucking adorable, but it still has to change...

In my youth soccer days, I had a coach who turned his back on us after getting fed up with how the team practiced. He insisted we continue, only without him watching. It didn’t bother me (seemed for the best, really; he was unhappy, we were unhappy, etc.), but my teammates cracked within minutes and started begging him to watch again. That was the goal, of course, and he gave everyone reminders on “goals and attitudes,” etc. I don’t recall if we did any better, but that was never the point of the exercise.

I don’t know why that story came to me, but watching FC Cincinnati get destroyed by Columbus Crew SC by an ultimately merciful 3-0 final score allowed me to sympathize a little with my old coach.

I’ve been waiting to see how FC Cincinnati stacked up against Major League Soccer competition since June 10, 2018 – that was the first time I saw them play (and, for the record, they beat North Carolina in that one). Between my commute and some questionable choices on the video streaming side by and among FC Cincy, the Chicago Fire and the good people who run the Carolina Challenge Cup, I missed the live, and only, video stream of Cincinnati’s draw against Chicago. Watching them play the Charleston Battery…I dunno, it felt less like something any of us needed to know than a lazy farewell fuck with an old flame. (Also, I’d already watched them play Charleston last year as well). Given all the above, and unless I blacked out them playing an MLS team in last year’s U.S. Open Cup, yesterday’s game against Columbus really did count as my first time seeing FC Cincinnati against MLS opposition and…yeah, where to begin?

Saying a team got “played off the park” is one of soccer’s most familiar clichés, but FC Cincinnati did something more disturbing in Charleston yesterday: they didn’t to show up. They looked every bit as unready for primetime as the “jerseys” in which they played. By the end of getting spun dizzy by Columbus, I’m guessing some of them appreciated that little taste of anonymity. A few of them might have appreciated a bag to wear over their heads. Beat on both sides of the ball, they didn’t defend well and attacked with the force of three kittens, that’s the kind of shit you see in the FA Cup when the Premier League teams come in to face the amateurs. Worse, Roland Lamah, the only guy to produce a highlight reel moment (and he managed two…ish) let his final highlight take the form of a two-footed tackle from behind and a deserved sending off…

…to turn to another cliché, yes, sometimes a team needs that spark and that's probably what Lamah was after. Sparks are funny, though, inspiration in one scenario, and step one to a dumpster conflagration in another.

Portland Timbers 3-0 Real Salt Lake: Hitting Every Mark (and Hot Damn!)

How I'm keeping a clear head, or attempting to.

I saw a couple things in the time between the Portland Timbers absolutely nailed their final dress rehearsal for the 2019 season and actually sitting down to watch it. In fact, on my way to queuing up the archived stream, I saw the Bizarro-world score – i.e., one that had Real Salt Lake beating Portland 3-0 – but the opposite happened, of course. The Timbers won the game 3-0, and it took less than five minutes for the correct timeline to assert itself when Jeremy Ebobisse handled an Andy Polo cross and quietly slotted home Portland’s first goal.

Another moment better illustrates the way the game played out. Somewhere around the 68th minute, the ball rolled to Diego Valeri, with RSL’s Kyle Beckerman standing not more than a yard away. Beckerman bit hard to where he thought Valeri would take the ball, but Diego opened his body and guided the ball upfield, toward RSL’s goal. Beckerman grabbed Valeri to stop the break, picking up a yellow card for this pair of bad decisions. That one, short moment translates to the game writ large, because every player in Timbers green had moments very much like that happened over and over. The team brimmed with confidence yesterday – Zarek (freakin’) Valentin picked off a ball and pirouetted away with it with La Liga flair around the 10th minute, fer crissakes – and, to take the dimmest possible view of it, maybe that follows from having RSL’s number last season; maybe the two teams’ composition gives Portland a standing edge for now. A sunnier interpretation argues that good decisions and solid technique aligned in a way that promises at least some bright spots in the season that starts just one week from now.

What made me giddiest, though, was that RSL didn’t play a bad game. They forced at least three tough saves out of Jeff Attinella (at least) – including an early attempt by (I think Corey Baird) that took a desperate swing of the legs to keep the ball out of the goal. The ball that fed the attempt came from Damir Kreilach (playing as a second forward; see last paragraph) with a detour near Julio Cascante, and that underlines the very important point that Portland wasn’t perfect. But Cascante had a decent game, I’d argue his best of the preseason. And where he got beat, Attinella stepped into the breach left behind. Again, that phenomenon played out over and over, and all game. This, however, was more typical: at one point, RSL tried to play Baird around the right back (Jorge Villafana) the same way Portland had sent Andy Polo around (I think) Aaron Herrera throughout the first half to reasonably devastating effect (see, the first goal, and the third, just on the opposite side); in that moment, Baird had Villafana rummaging around his back pocket and with two more defenders left to beat inside. The organization was good, y’all.

Phoenix Rising 1-0 Portland Timbers: From Paraguay, WIth Some Confusion

Not in Paraguay...

Knowing that was Phoenix Rising’s first team out there tonight was the only thing that kept me from turning off that game at the half and donating my eyes to science ahead of schedule. (Thereby teaching the next generation how astigmatism; I am a hero.) A wiser man would have followed the instinct, but some online trickster, a Windy City Loki, lured me all the way through all 95 execrable minutes of that nightmare. I felt less frustration watching my toddler trying to tie her shoes the first time around.

Now (speaking of!), put yourself in Jorge Moreira’s shoes. Imagine flying in from Argentina (or Paraguay; does it matter in this case) for your first game of the rest of at least 40, and watching those first 45 minutes. Speaking for myself, I would have called my agent immediately and refused to get on that…disgusting field. The first 38 minutes of the Portland Timbers' 0-1 loss to Phoenix Rising (you lost to that awful slogan as well! Shame!) was nothing more or less than a crime against competence and good taste, an assault to eyeballs, spirit and aesthetics.

Fortunately, the result didn’t matter. Moreover, it’s not Moreira lit it up out there. He had a fauxssist (TM….don't touch it, it's mine!!) on what looked like Cristhian Paredes game-opening goal, but it took me less time to figure out Andy Polo was offside than the ref. (Serious question: what’s with the dramatic pauses? Can we get a little more of “get your ass over here and rubber-stamp the fact he was off” and get on with the goddamn game with VAR?) Outside that shining moment and one particularly cool, calm moment when he shepherded a ball out of a tricky situation with two dudes on his shoulder, you would have thought Moreira was a trialist based on tonight, what with all the USL talent (named Junior Flemmings) making him look like something less than a threat to Zarek Valentin’s one and only day job.

I’m not worried about Moreira (yet…nah, just messin’). This was his first game, new league, new country, that’s just a lot to take in. Also, a good USL team is nothing to sniff at. For instance, after watching Solomon Asante play a full 90, and thinking about all those MLS teams in search of a winger…well, it makes you wonder, if nothing else. (Then again, seriously, will a time come when the influx of talent to North America gathers enough steam that a player like Asante will go to USL as a stepping stone to MLS?)

Given that this game meant less than nothing (aka, Saturday, against the New York Red Bulls 1.5), I don’t want to spend too much time on it. I’ll start with some general thoughts about each of the “Three Units” (e.g., 0-38, 38-79, 79-90), then go through what I’ve seen from the more marginal/contingent crowd on the Timbers line-up. In other words, my comments on Jeff Attinella, Diego Valeri, Diego Chara, Sebastian Blanco, Larrys Mabiala, Jorge Villafana, and even Zarek Valentin, Dairon Asprilla, and Andres Flores start and end with “stay healthy, fellas!” Yes, even if they're not all starters. Just to note it, did Flores pull the “single white female” thing on Lawrence Olum (e.g., unlikely replacement on at least one level that everyone seems to buy)? I’ll get to (marginal) personnel later; let’s talk about each of tonight’s shift.

Portland Timbers 2-2 New York Red Bulls: Choice Paradox

Much as I wouldn't know what to do with all those arms...

It took 70 minutes for Sebastian Blanco to get deep enough in Kyle Duncan’s head to take advantage. In that sense, I came away from this game more impressed by the New York Red Bulls youth than anything else. At the same time…Blanco is my favorite Timber for a reason.

From a Portland Timbers perspective, last night’s 2-2 draw against the Red Bulls coughs up too many variables to manage: too many dudes to assess, an opposing team that played a familiar system with different parts, and that’s on top of a state of play that only raised more questions. I blame preseason, and to the extent that I can’t decide whether the uneasy feeling from Wednesday’s win over the Seattle Sounders carries over. Not all B-teams are created equal, for starters, but New York has the power of their surprisingly reliable plug-‘n’-play system that goes quite a ways toward erasing that distinction. They don’t have an MLS Cup to show for it, but the Red Bulls have been the most reliably “money” team in MLS for nearly half a decade now – so says three of the last six Supporters’ Shields, so says last year’s league-leading goal differential.

Given all that, call this a good test for the Timbers. The result doesn’t mean anything, obviously, and ending in a tie makes it mean a little less, but, outside a whack at someone’s knuckles here and sharper questions there, just about every player performed well. Because the recap posted to MLSSoccer.com doesn’t provide the full treatment (e.g., no box score), I can’t say whether New York out-shot the Timbers. I suspect they generated more chances, and better ones, and that’s where my personal threat level tops out. Your feelings may vary – thanks in no small part to all the variables – so long as you rate the resilience of New York’s system (as I do), seeing Portland come back from two goals down against them felt like a decent evening’s work.

Most of the negatives I saw showed up on the defensive side and a lot of those showed up in the vicinity of Julio Cascante. The lowlight came when Cascante’s misplayed of a ball over the top that forced Larrys Mabiala into a tackle dicey enough for the ref to call it a penalty kick at first glance (it wasn’t; good call), but he also struggled more under the Red Bulls’ pressure than any Timbers this side of David Guzman. And, as alluded to, I don’t think Guzman looked all that sharp yesterday, and on either side of the ball, but he had more good moments than bad ones on balance, just like everyone else in Timbers green. That said, both goals were regrettable – the first for the way Villafana got caught forward and for the way Mabiala and Zarek Valentin lost Brian White between them, the second because that’s shit defending on a corner – and, again, you just don’t want to see that, even in preseason. Mistakes are one way to lose a game, so the fewer the better.