Austin FC Scouting Report: Looking at a Mountain, Walking Up a Hill?

Keep climbing! It gets easier! (Plus extra points!)

All the games are big for the Timbers at this point. It’s weirdly invigorating, honestly, all this living on the edge of failure...but let’s talk about the opposition, Austin FC, staring with:

The Basics
6-4-5, 23 pts., 20 gf, 18 ga (+2); home 5-1-2, away 1-3-3, 5th West, 10th overall
Last 10:    WWLWWTLWWT
Venue:      AHHAAHAHHA

My GOD, I love data! For instance, if you just had Austin’s record, you’d see that 6-2-2 over their past 10 games and have every reason to brace for a hiding. If you poked around, say, the Form Guide, you’d see that Austin only loss at home came all the way back at MLS Week 1 (versus Minnesota – and who hasn’t done that this season?), that the two draws came shortly thereafter, and that’s been nothing but Ws since.

If you look a little longer, say, walk through the teams Austin have beat at home – in order, FC Dallas, San Jose, the Galaxy, Houston, then Sporting KC – or that the 15 goals for and 10 goals against over the past 10 games tighten to just six goals for and five goals over the past five games, you'd start to wonder. They still went 2-2-1 over that five-game stretch, sturdy, sure, but the hill to climb shrinks a little every time you look at it. Next thing you know you’re seeing stats pop up in broadcast – e.g., the Head to Head going into the win over Houston that showed Austin’s xG differential at -8.6. I don’t want to oversell that narrative – not least because Portland’s checks all the boxes for being the next team to stumble into Q2 Stadium (aka, Austin’s home ground) and face-plant on the field. And that 1-5-2 road record only makes you wonder just  how hard their face will hit it.

But for that horse-fly in the ointment, this one looks wide-open. With that, let’s get back to Austin.

The Team
All-time head coach/impressive-chin possessor, Josh Wolff, does not deviate from the 4-2-3-1, and Brad Stuver always starts in goal (you’ll hear “STUUUV” every time he makes a save). Moreover, Wolff sticks with most of the same players, which include:

Portland Timbers 2-1 Sporting Kansas City: It Ain't What You Do, It's the Fact That You Did It

To any Portland Timbers fans feeling underwhelmed by last night’s 2-1 win over Sporting Kansas City, please see the lament from a handful of SKC fans at right.

Real Quick Game Summary
Neither team did much over the first half, even if, in keeping with the final score/numbers, Portland did a little more. There was feeling up, out and everything in between and the Timbers getting the best traction with long balls to Jonathan Rodriguez. SKC had space to play – and that made them look better at times – but Portland erased that at the start of the second half by pushing their line of engagement into SKC’s half. That rattled out a turnover in a good place that Portland exploited through some next-level play by Evander (love the way he swims through that first challenge) and the kind of subtle cross Portland pays him to deliver. Even if the final result lacked for elegance, SKC equalized by paying the Timbers back in the same currency – i.e., they just got on Portland as they tried to play out of the back – but Portland ultimately got their foot on the ball and found the winner through Evander after playing volleyball between the channels (video below). They had to wait a few for Drew Fischer to bless it – as he should have, because Antony wasn’t active in the play – but both the goal and the win stood up, if with a late, great save from Maxime Crepeau to haul it over the line.

Now, before anyone gets carried away about last night’s defensive performance, know it came against a team that, counting last night's loss, hasn't won in eight games and that has lost its last five. Sporting Kansas City is a bad team. I can’t say how much they lost when Erik Thommy went out, but I’m highly confident it didn’t help. The Timbers had to win this game. And, credit to them, they did. The next one’s coming soon and, gods willing, I’ll squeeze in something on that, but I’m going to close this post with (new feature/concept!):

Sporting Kansas City Scouting Report: On Nervous Cornered Animals

You don't this Portland...wait. Maybe you do...

When I first sat down to type this, I thought Sporting Kansas City hosted this one. They don’t, of course, and that only makes this game the most-winniest of the season so far for the Portland Timbers. If the Timbers can’t win this one, what’s there left to do but cast all the spells and sacrifice all the goats necessary to keep the New England Revolution between Portland and The Wooden Spoon?

Now, to dig into why that is:

The Basics
2-6-5, 11 pts., 21 gf, 24 ga (-3); home 1-3-3, away 1-3-2; 13th in West, 23rd overall
Last 10: WLWTLTLLLL
Venue: HHAHHHAAHA

Like the Timbers, basically, only a little worse on offense and a little better defensively, but with the same gently underwater goal differential.

Even then, the “little better defensively” needs adjusting. SKC have allowed two goals or more in seven of their past 10 games and, bluntly, they don’t look good defensively. Based on some recent highlights (home draw v St. Louis, home loss v Houston, and the road loss at Minnesota) and vast swaths of last weekend’s loss at Austin FC, SKC hands out good looks like sweet, sweet candy – up to 5+ primo chances per game. Set-piece defending is a problem – just over 1/3 of all goals allowed - and they have given up a bushel of points (bushel=14 points) from leading positions. And that was before dropping some more at Austin.

Despite all the above, (far too) long-time head coach Peter Vermes only seems to change his starting XI when injuries or disciplinary actions make him. He recently flirted with a 4-2-3-1, but I see a lot of 4-3-3 in SKC’s past and that’s what Vermes rolled with in the last two road games as well. That 4-3-3 has been populated like so in recent weeks (the steadiest regulars are bolded):

Minnesota United FC 2-1 Portland Timbers: Acknowledging Inevitability

I'm a horse-girl. No, seriously.

To lead this post/set of observations with something that doesn’t get mentioned nearly often enough: Minnesota United FC is a good soccer team right now. Trust me, I did a lot of maths!

I bring that up because the Portland Timbers played a better overall game at Minnesota than they have in recent weeks – even if they caught a break here (e.g., start watching this at 1:43) and there (the rest of the highlights, really).

You know where Portland didn’t play on good overall game? At home against a serially self-sabotaging San Jose Earthquakes team at midweek at (fucking) Providence Park. I embraced the win as if straight-up French-kissing that gift horse like we’re getting married as soon as pa-PA gives his blessing, but the Timbers reprised their season-long pattern of frittering away a whole goddamn home with their own unique spin on self-sabotage. Thus, and but for the ‘Quakes capacity to implode, Portland would not have that bright little blip in what has otherwise been a horrific stretch of 10 games. Again, I looked into this and can confirm that the Timbers have been Chicago Fire FC bad over their past 10 games. They have some company in their little corner of Hell, but even that stops at two to three teams.

A Summary
The stats back up my eye test – i.e., Minnesota came just shy of doubling Portland in every attacking stat; also, the Loons as a compelling attacking team, let that sink in for a bit – so, I’m not entirely surprised that the Timbers succumbed under the weight of the challenge. That said, I saw enough positives, whether true or false, for the final 1-2 result to burn a little. For instance, if this matches the actual form/rough function of the lineup pictured here, I like it more than I hate it. For all the bullets it dodged, it kept its basic shape and provided the offense with some bonafide sharp looks – i.e., there’s a reason Minnesota’s Dane St. Clair ended with as many saves than Portland’s Maxime Crepeau – and, Minnesota’s actual goals aside, St. Clair faced tougher shots than Crepeau in my mind.

MLS Snapshot, Week 13/14, aka, Figuring Out What's Really Going On

Take me to your secret garden under the sea!

Back on April 6 of this year, I posted a pointlessly premature league-wide roundup. This post both updates and revisits those early impressions and in a way that, I’m guessing, will embarrass the author in more ways than it won’t. Moreover, I’m taking an approach meant to maximize that discomfort because, to paraphrase the late Bill O’Reilly (…wait, is he dead yet?), fuck it, I’m doing this live.

By that I mean, I pulled the top-line numbers from the current standings (i.e., this link is functionally dead by next weekend) and the Form Guide (never lets one down) for every team in Major League Soccer and combined them into tidy little blocks of data. Those blocks include: each team’s current record, total number of points, goals scored, goals allowed, home and away records, where they fit in their conference and the league as a whole, plus each team’s results over their past 10 games and a note on where they played those games. Think data in high-protein, never-gonna-shit-again granola form.

On the analysis side, I decided against farting around with strength of schedule and instead went with a single snapshot-style statement on each team at this moment – which, for the record, is either 13 or 14 games for 26 teams. That’s to say, the current MLS calendar is on Week 13/14 and the great Inter Miami CF calendar is a lie.

The notes on each team will close with my impression of them as of MLS Week 6. This is where the embarrassment comes in, because I swung wide and wild on plenty of teams.

That’s it for the preamble. Everything else should speak for itself from here. As with that last post, I’m starting with the MLS’s Western Conference and closing with the Eastern and I’ve listed every team according to its current place in their respective conference standings. Finally, and as noted on Bluesky, I’m going back to following the Portland Timbers and the Timbers alone, and then posting some form of league-wide weekly round-up. Not 100%-sure what form that’ll take, I only know I want it to be smaller than this whale.

For now, let’s climb on Shamu’s back and see where he swims.

Timbers Win! Timbers Win! (Just Take It)

Marv Gomez, actually gets us.

While I didn’t intend to post anything about tonight’s game, I did manage to see all the goals, failures and indelible mysteries that made the Portland Timbers 4-2 win over the San Jose Earthquakes end the way it did.

I had a handful of talking points, but they don’t matter. Some pointed to persistent issues, some flagged some new ones, but I doubt many of them will translate to the next opponent never mind the three, four after them. I won’t question anything (though I have some), discuss where luck met competence or when, or do the usual digging and nitpicking I usually do after a game..

In the here and now, the only thing that matters is that the Timbers won a must-win game. They had to win this one because, for all their strengths (and they have a few), San Jose is a shit road team with the worst defensive record in Major League Soccer. Portland did the job and as my personal savior, Marv Gomez, the Leatherman, once said: dancing, everything else is bullshit.

When things bounce your way, the smart thing to do is catch the ball and run with it.

That said, the one and only thing I want to point out is Portland’s second goal and, per a talking point posted in last week’s Portland Timbers Snapshot (branding!), note Jonathan Rodriguez’s role in it. To be clear, it wasn’t just him; all the things that led up to that goal - Kamal Miller playing a line-breaker, Evander making a run from the depths, etc. - are the sum of what the Timbers fail to do in the many times when they under-perform. As they have for most of 2024. Still, Rodriguez feels key to the equation because he's the guy who ultimately solves it.

Why this team needs halftime adjustments like visits to the chiropractor, I'll never know. Also, God bless the man and I love him, but never let Larrys Mabiala on the field again.

Till…I’m guessing some time in the middle of next week.

Portland Timbers Snapshot, Between Seattle and San Jose (Not Just Literally!)

Not just this, but, yes, this.

Hoping against all hope that it wouldn’t be a total waste of time, I just sat through the 15+ minutes of the Portland Timbers' 1-2 home loss – and third loss in a row – against their archrivals, the Seattle Sounders. In terms of my time, checking out of Providence Park early was the right call because, apart from a half-hopeful, yet better-than-average shot by Santiago Moreno, the Timbers continued to do the same jack-shit they’d done for most of Sunday afternoon.

Optimists will say the Timbers started strong, pessimists that they started lucky, but they still took an early lead (15th minute; woot!) when a Dario Zuparic long-ball found Jonathan Rodriguez’s chest, which found Felipe Mora’s foot, which found the goal. Portland attempted to play long early as if they had aerial threats to play to, more or less treating midfield with the disdain that coastal Americans treat the (who?) flyover states. It worked better than it had any reason to: Mora is great with his back to goal, but he’s less good battling center backs (or even most fullbacks) at head level; Rodriguez, on the other hand, has the ups and size to make something of the ol’ high/hopeful. As such, that became Portland’s Plan A until Seattle’s defense wised up and started double-teaming Rodriguez.

Plan A totally collapsed four minutes later when the Sounders equalized. And if the fucking watch started again after that, I still haven’t heard it ticking. Sure, the Sounders caught a break on their equalizer (ping!) and, sure, referee Allen Chapman called the game as if his job started and ended with proving he didn’t favor the home team (and, quite possibly, gets off on seeing Mora get shoved around), but today’s loss goes down as the Timbers’ most dispiriting in a season that, between disappointing performances and points pissed away, has worked over time to keep spirits low.

The Sounders hardly put on a clinic and that only makes things worse. Still, Seattle had the defining advantage of knowing how to move the goddamn ball around the fucking field, both expletives needed and deliberate. If I had to point to the sharpest distinction between the two teams, I’d point to the Sounders’ second, 50th minute goal. Sure, Raul Ruidiaz misses that nine times out of ten, but Seattle’s passing and off-the-ball movement had Portland’s defenders and midfielders chasing the last ball. The past two weekends of Timbers “action” makes a good case they’d forgotten how to do that and, so, what should have been two winnable games for any competent, mid-table Major League Soccer sub-franchise became the second and third of three straight losses.

Seattle Sounders Scouting Report: Prepping for a Knife Fight in the Gutter

I don't know, we just seem to have so much in common...

[UPDATE/PSA: I tried to create the usual mini-post/pop quiz for this post on reddit, but shit got weird and it just kind of sat there doing nothing for four or five hours. As such, I said "fuck it" and deleted the reddit post. I may still bounce around in there, maybe even post something of my own occasionally (so long as those go live, or whatever happens in the guts of reddit), but I'm not going try to navigate whatever weird bar they have for posting links to original content. Basically, the only place you'll find links to posts to this site is Bluesky. Until that platform explodes, implodes, or whatever verb applies to social media sites when they die their righteous and probably well-justified death.] 

Well, let’s see how many things I can get wrong this week…happily, I can't fuck up the facts. Right?

The Basics
The Record: 2-5-4 (hello, sexy!), 10 pts., home 1-1-3, away 1-4-1, 13 gf, 13 ga (0)
Last 10 Games: TTLLWTLLWT
Strength of Schedule: Literally a couple loin-stirring wins – e.g., a 5-0 blowout over Club du Foot Montreal back in Week 6, place a recent road win at a puzzling Philadelphia Union team – with free points squandered all around - e.g., home draws v Austin FC and the Colorado Rapids before they found their feet, a road draw at FC Dallas (who cough up points like a busted one-armed bandit), and a road loss at perennial no-hopers, San Jose Earthquakes. Suffice to say the might have fallen - and, golly, isn't it a hoot?

In what feels like a total-eclipse-like rarity, Seattle and the Portland Timbers share the same shitty overall record, but Seattle holds a thin edge in the standings thanks to neutral goal differential. They built that shaky foundation by allowing ten fewer goals on one side, while scoring eight less on the other. And, holy shit, are the natives restless up there…

The Lineup
Brian Schmetzer has ride or die committed to the 4-2-3-1 regardless of who he has on hand – though, honestly, he seems deeply committed to the same starters despite the poor returns. The first-choice back four typically features (left to right) Nouhou, Yeimar, Jackson Regan, and Alex Roldan – but Roldan the Younger has missed the last few games and, from what I understand, Yeimar will miss Sunday’s game (and there was great rejoicing). The deeper midfield two has generally involved Josh Atencio and, anytime he can walk, Joao Paulo, with Obed Vargas filling in when he can't, while the preferred, higher midfield three features (left to right) Jordan Morris, Albert Rusnak, and Cristian Roldan. And, topping it all off, like the star on your Christmas tree, Raul Ruidiaz.

If many of those names seem familiar to the point of where you’re sick of seeing them, Sounders fans have your back. If you turn your ear north and listen carefully, you may hear clamoring for a youth movement…

The Loss v Charlotte FC, Wailing, Lamentations, and Acceptance

The cruelest serving.

You ever get to the end of a long-form math equation only to realize that you did something wrong somewhere and wound up with the wrong result? That’s what the past three match reports I’ve posted (here, here, and here) feel like after the Portland Timbers fucking bummer of a 0-2 loss at Charlotte FC. I’ll get return to the math problem, but let’s start by wrapping up what happened last Saturday with the brevity it deserves.

I don’t see the point of breaking this game down because the work of litigating what went wrong feels like writing the same thing for the…how many games has Portland played in 2024? Eleven? So, yeah, but for some time off early last month, I’d be flagging a lot of the same issues for the eleventh time.

Face-planting disasters in defense? Check! Hell, the Timbers got a two-fer-one out of Zac McGraw last Saturday (see all the way below for links). Struggles with ball progression? Covered! Not on the same page? They weren’t even reading the same goddamn book. It was so bad (how bad was it?), Charlotte’s Enzo Copetti scored a goal in open play. Timbers fans got a brimming plateful of more of the same, basically, only without the thrill of a late rally or the pain of watching an early lead slip away. Another week of dining in Hell’s cafeteria…

Over those past three match reports, I’ve pointed to a green shoot here (Felipe Mora’s back!), a bright spot there (the Timbers’ first complete game of 2024!), and maybe even sprinkled some fairy dust around both to brighten them up a little (Evander will know what to do!). Again, and I cannot possibly stress this enough, the set of problems outlined above has appeared in some form or another in every game this season and the sum of the green shoots + bright spots – (the same problems X 11) = 12th in Major League Soccer’s Western Conference and 24th overall.

Where is the line between looking past bad results and ignoring them? Is it still a green shoot if it doesn’t grow?

Charlotte FC Scouting Report: Yes, I'm Over-Committing Again

Blasphemy.

This one had to go up early due to outside life obligations. Which, rather incredibly, I still have…

Some Basics
Charlotte FC comes into the weekend loitering at 11th in Major League Soccer’s Eastern Conference (and 20th overall; at 22nd, your Portland Timbers), on 11 points with a solid home record (3-1-1) and a shit road record (0-4-1, fwiw, but that’s not important right now). They’ve won some real ones – e.g., the controversial 2-0 win over Columbus Crew SC in Week 5 (or Week 6, by the Inter Miami CF calendar) and, more recently, a 3-2 win over Toronto FC (hold this thought) – but one number jumps out for me more than the rest: the 10 goals they’ve scored in 2024. Given the sad state of the Timbers’ defense, what’s better than a feeble attacking team? (That’s right, karma. Bring it.)

The Lineup
Over their past six games, first year head coach Dean Smith has toggled between a 4-2-3-1 (for example) and a 4-3-3 (for example...and, shit, I forgot they signed Junior Urso), if with a slight lean toward the former for home games. The personnel moves around, though not wildly. Kristijan Kahlina consistently starts in goal and Andrew Privett in the center of defense. Privett has partnered with either Adilson Malanda or Bill Tuiloma (hi Bill!) for the most part and Ashley Westwood and Djibril Diani anchor the midfield in front of them. Smith fields a fair mash-up of players in front of that foundation, most often with Belgian midfielder Brecht Dejaegere in either midfield or the frontline, (old (35), and notably non-DP) Scottish midfielder Scott Arfield when he’s available, their new, flashy (aka, expensive) Israeli youth international Liel Abada on or around the left wing, and Kerwin Vargas on the right. Finally, expect to see either Enzo Copetti or Patrick Agyemang starting at the “1” in the 4-2-3-1 or in the middle of the three in the 4-3-3.

As of note as all that, Charlotte hasn’t had a “the man” since Karol Swiderski got loaned out at the start of this season(?). Their highest scoring players – Agyemang and Vargas – both have just 2 goals and 1 assist to their names and it’s a lot of ones and zeros from there. I’ll get into this more later, but I’d rather see Copetti in Charlotte’s starting XI than Agyemang. Speaking of…

Some Reviews from the Local (i.e., Charlotte’s) Subreddit
“Just again reminding people that [Copetti] spent most of his career as a winger and right back in lower division [Argentine] football. How he ended up a DP with a transfer fee is beyond me.”
- Dizzy_Dare_2353, front a post shitting on Copetti, far from a rare sentiment, fwiw